By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Republican Favored

Electoral Votes: 3

The mere fact that Obama hasn’t completely ceded Alaska to McCain makes the contest in this longtime Republican presidential stronghold potentially more competitive than in most years prior. But adding Alaska to the Democrats’ win column for the first time since President Lyndon B. Johnson did it in 1964 — that’s 10 Republican victories ago, most by wide margins — is another matter entirely, state political strategists say.

Most Alaskan voters harbor some combination of conservative and libertarian views, which for the most part include support for gun owners’ rights and for extraction of the state’s economically vital reserves of oil and other minerals.

McCain is partially insulated by his personal background as a Vietnam War POW and his current role as ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, where he has been a consistent supporter of U.S. military involvement in the Iraq War.

“This is a state where the military is really important,” said political scientist Jerry McBeath of the University of Alaska at Fairbanks.

McCain may not be able to take this state for granted, though, especially since Obama is building a ground organization in Alaska, where he easily won his party’s caucuses back on Feb. 5.

McCain, by contrast, was hardly the top pick of state Republicans voting in their “Super Tuesday’ caucuses, finishing fourth, with only 16 percent of the vote. Some Republicans told local news outlets that they viewed McCain as not as conservative as his competitors.

And in the past McCain alienated state voters with his opposition to opening Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling, and he has irked some Alaskans by making an expensive state project, branded by McCain and other critics as “the Bridge to Nowhere,” the butt of his argument against congressional spending earmarks.

That was a pet project of Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens , who holds the record as history’s longest-serving Republican senator and is seeking re-election this year to a seat to which he was first appointed 40 years ago. But Stevens has much bigger problems than McCain’s barbs about the bridge. He was indicted in July on seven felony counts of making false statements on his financial disclosure forms. The sweeping political corruption scandal that has embroiled business executives with close ties to both Stevens and Alaska’s lone Representative, Don Young , is the biggest cloud over Republican prospects in the state, and it has rendered both of them more vulnerable to defeat than they have been for many years.

Several state lawmakers and officials of the Alaska oil services company VECO Corp. have been convicted of corruption-related offenses, and Stevens’ indictment involves his ties to the company. The 84-year-old incumbent may have to exhaust every bit of the good will he has built among voters. He has a challenge in the Aug. 26 primary from Dave W. Cuddy, a wealthy real estate developer who lost to Stevens in the 1996 GOP primary after spending more than $1 million in personal funds, and five lesser-known candidates. If he gets past the primary, Stevens faces a threat from the Democrats’ top-tier recruit, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. Because of Stevens’ legal troubles, CQ Politics rates the race Leans Democratic.

Young, who spent nearly $1 million on legal expenses and fees last year, is also in danger of losing his seat. Challengers for his Aug. 26 Republican primary include Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell, who hopes for support from voters turned off not only by the ethics questions but also by Young’s rough-hewn and often confrontational manner. Democrats plan one of their strongest challenges in years for the seat; former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz is the best-known Democratic primary contender. CQ Politics race rating: No Clear Favorite, our most competitive category.