By Adam Graham-Silverman, CQ Staff

At the time, it may have seemed like a good idea: Republicans picked Minneapolis-St. Paul as the site of their 2008 convention two years ago, before the midterm elections in which Democrats swept to power in Congress — and across Minnesota.

Analysts say that decision does not look as wise now, at least when it comes to Republican hopes in the state with the longest-running streak of voting Democratic for president, eight straight elections. Still, Republicans say the convention at least gives them some added hope of contesting not only Minnesota but also its Democratic-leaning neighbors to the east (Wisconsin) and the south (Iowa) — what GOP strategist Sarah Janacek calls the “Minnewisowa electoral college strategy.”

Republicans and the host cities say the decision to pick the Twin Cities had more to do with facilities than politics, but recent elections must have been on the brain. “When planning was occurring, Minnesota’s status as a swing state in 2004 was fresh in everyone’s mind,” said University of Minnesota political scientist Kathryn Pearson. “Minnesota is now is on the second tier of swing states. It’s not Florida; it’s not Ohio.”

The Democratic nominees carried Minnesota by just 3 percentage points last time and 2 points in 2000; the party’s margins of victory in Wisconsin were less than half a point both times. Iowa went narrowly for President Bush last time and narrowly for Al Gore before that.

The consensus among political professionals in the region, though, is that the unpopular policies of the Bush administration, on both domestic and international fronts, have put Barack Obama clearly if not irreversibly ahead in all three states at the moment.

Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes, Wisconsin’s 10 and Iowa’s seven combine for a collective prize equal to Florida, the biggest of the swing states, and a bigger prize than either Ohio (20) or Michigan (17), the other Midwest states still somewhat in play for the GOP.

The Twin Cities media market extends into western Wisconsin and northern Iowa. Until Hurricane Gustav, Republicans had counted on a week of saturation convention coverage helping them throughout the region. “It brings attention for a good solid week and a half to John McCain and the issues we’re presenting that you don’t get unless it’s a local story,” state GOP communications director Gina Countryman said in the days leading up to the convention.

“When McCain put a lot of time in the state . . . there’s polling that shows a bump,” said Lawrence Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs in Minneapolis. “When Republicans put time and resources into the state, it makes a difference.”

Democrats, of course, see it differently. “Republicans don’t have much of a prayer in Minnesota,” said Wy Spano, a longtime Democratic consultant and director of the Master of Advocacy and Political Leadership Program at the University of Minnesota-Duluth.

Evidence of that blossomed in 2006, when Minnesota was in the vanguard of the nationwide Democratic wave, with Amy Klobuchar holding an open Senate seat for the party by by a lopsided 20 points, Tim Walz ousting GOP incumbent Gil Gutknecht to give the party a 5-3 edge in the House delegation and, Democrats securing total control of the state Legislature and also unseating two Republicans to take over both elected statewide offices other than governor. Gov. Tim Pawlenty was the most prominent GOP survivor, but he won his second term by just a hair in part because of a third-party candidate.

Also in 2006, Wisconsin re-elected Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle and gave a hotly contested open House seat to Democrat Steve Kagen . Iowa filled its open governor’s seat with Democrat Chet Culver , and Democrats picked up two House seats .

As for St. Paul itself — the site of the Xcel Energy Center where the now-truncated convention is to be held — John Kerry carried it last time by 3-to-1.

The Twin Cities wooed both parties for their 2008 gatherings and ended up with the Republicans because they came forward first. Since then the GOP has praised the efforts of the cities’ two Democratic mayors, Minneapolis’ R.T. Rybak and St. Paul’s Chris Coleman (no relation to Norm), for their smooth-running hosting apparatus and state-of-the-art facilities.