By Marie Horrigan, CQ Staff

Democratic strategists know that their goal of scoring the big nine-seat Senate gain they need to achieve a “filibuster-proof” 60-seat majority is a lofty one, and that they would have to oust some of the favored incumbent Republican senators they have targeted — among them North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole. And while state Sen. Kay Hagan, their nominee, once appeared a distinct underdog to Dole, there are multiple signs that this is emerging as one of the year’s key battleground races.

Because of these shifts, CQ Politics has changed its rating on the race, which was Republican Favored, to its tossup category of No Clear Favorite.

Dole herself raised some eyebrows when she decided to skip the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn., early this month, given that she had done star turns as GOP conventions dating back to the 1980s when she served as a Cabinet official in the administrations of Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. Dole’s campaign played down speculation that she skipped the convention because of worries about her re-election bid, stating that she had decided it was more important for her to stick to her constituents’ concerns at home.

Yet recent polling in the North Carolina Senate race suggests that Dole does indeed have her hands full in fending off Hagan. A survey by Public Policy Polling released in late August showed the challenger with a 3 percentage-point lead over Dole, 42 percent to 39 percent. More recent polling by Public Policy Polling, Research 2000 and SurveyUSA either presented Dole as holding a slight lead or put the two candidates within a statistical tie. Libertarian Party candidate Christopher Cole showed signs of building enough support to effect the contest, receiving support in high single-digit percentages when included in polls.

Hagan spokeswoman Colleen Flanagan said the central question for voters is which candidate can do the better job for North Carolina in the Senate. The Hagen campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), which already has made independent expenditures for ads in North Carolina, are fond of citing a listing by the nonpartisan political Web site Congress.org that pegged Dole as the 93rd most effective of the current senators. Flanagan noted that Hagan has been ranked among the top 10 most effective state legislators by the independent North Carolina Center for Public Policy Research since 2003.

“There are about 50 days left between now and November 4th, and we plan on using every single one of them to talk about Kay’s record of effectiveness, her record of results in Raleigh, as opposed to Elizabeth Dole ’s record of ineffectiveness in Washington,” Flanagan said.

The DSCC took that “effectiveness” rating a step farther with an ad that caused a stir in August. The ad, titled “Rocking Chairs”, featured a pair of elderly men on a porch speculating over whether Dole is 92 or 93. Although the numbers referred to the percentage of times the DSCC cites Dole as voting with President Bush (92 percent) and that ranking as the 93rd most effective senator, the ad raised questions about whether the Democrats were trying to prompt an age issue in the race between the 72-year-old Dole and the 55-year-old Hagan.

DSCC officials deny they were attacking Dole concerning her age. “If I were her I wouldn’t want voters talking about those two numbers either, but it’s not because of age,” said committee spokesman Matthew Miller.

Dole spokesman Dan McLagan contended, though, that the query about whether Dole is 92 or 93 was a transparent personal affront that “is impolite, at the least, but I think folks see that and they realize that it’s a distortion, it’s an attack, and it’s not the kind of thing we do down in the South.”

McLagan added that Dole is doing fine in the race and the support she is receiving “absolutely would be enough” to secure victory in November. “We’ve withstood a barrage of over $3 million in negative ads from Kay Hagan and her Washington pals, and our polling shows us climbing,” he said.

Dole has the advantages of a nearly universally recognized name, stemming from her long career in public life, that Hagan can’t match. Dole, a native of the North Carolina city of Salisbury and graduate of Duke University, went to Washington after earning a law degree from Harvard and eventually served as a member of the Federal Trade Commission (1973-79), as Transportation secretary under Reagan (1983-87), Labor secretary under Bush (1989-90) and president of the American Red Cross (1991-99). She has long been married to former Kansas Republican Sen. Bob Dole, whom she aided in his unsuccessful bid as the 1996 Republican challenger to President Bill Clinton.

The only question is whether this resume, an advantage to Dole when she won the 2002 contest for the seat left open by the retirement of five-term Republican Sen. Jesse Helms, is less of a bulwark in an election year in which the presidential nominees of both major parties, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain , are campaigning on platforms of “change” and pledges to shake up the Washington political establishment.

One area in which Dole’s incumbency has helped is in fundraising. She reported raising $8.4 million through June 30 — the most recent figures available for this race — while Hagan reported raising $3.1 million by the same date. Seventy-eight percent of Hagan’s money has come from in-state while less than half of Dole’s money (41 percent) came from the state she represents, another symbol of Dole’s national familiarity.