By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

For much of the year, Republican Rep. Ric Keller of Florida’s 8th Congressional District appeared headed for a relatively painless re-election campaign. But the four-term incumbent’s surprisingly close win in his Aug. 26 primary election signaled that his general election contest also might be more competitive than expected — which in turn heightened the interest of national Democratic Party strategists in Alan Grayson, a lawyer who easily won the party’s crowded primary the same day.

The changes in the Florida 8 scenario have prompted CQ Politics to change its rating on Keller’s general election race — from Republican Favored, a category that suggested he was very likely to win, to Leans Republican, which means Keller holds at least a slight advantage but an upset is a more plausible possibility.

“It’s certainly going to be, I think, the toughest race that Keller has faced since his first one,” political scientist Aubrey Jewett of the University of Central Florida in Orlando told CQ Politics.

Keller won his first House general election contest in 2000 with 51 percent of the vote, but topped 60 percent in both 2002 and 2004 before slipping in 2006 to 53 percent in defeating Democratic marketing executive Charlie Stuart by 7 percentage points. Stuart sought a rematch this year but lost to Grayson in the Democratic primary.

Keller, who represents a central Florida district that includes most of Orlando, edged primary opponent Todd Long — an attorney, conservative radio talk show host and novice candidate — by just 53 percent to 47 percent. Jewett said that the splintered results revealed dissatisfaction with Keller. Long ran to the right of Keller and argued that the incumbent should be ousted because he broke a self-imposed term-limit pledge.

In debates, Keller highlighted his record and championed his involvement in the federal “COPS program,” which funds the hiring of local police officers, his efforts to make college more affordable and his fight against tax increases. Keller went on the offensive in the weeks before the primary, sending out a mailer criticizing Long’s past incidents of alcohol abuse that prompted brushes with the law.

Grayson, meanwhile, rebounded from his 2006 primary loss to Stuart by capturing nearly 50 percent of the vote Aug. 26 in a five-way Democratic primary. Stuart, who comes from a local political family that is well-known in the Orlando area, last time drew early support from national Democratic officials. But this year, the national party did not involve itself in the primary.

And last week, in the wake of Grayson’s nomination, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) enrolled him in its “Red to Blue” program for House candidates seeking to take over Republican-held seats — or flip them from “Republican red” to “Democratic blue,” using the colors that have become common to political maps. Candidates on the list are pegged to receive additional financial and strategic aid after meeting benchmarks established by the DCCC.

Grayson, in his primary campaign, highlighted his work fighting against government fraud and waste and defending whistleblowers who leveled allegations of malfeasance against Iraq War defense contractors. Grayson’s personal wealth allowed him to fund television advertising and other campaign elements to spread his message, as he put more than $1 million in personal funds into his campaign.

Republicans will likely brand Grayson as a liberal in an effort to sway moderate and swing voters to stay with Keller. And though Keller lost a big share of the GOP primary vote, the conservative nature of Long’s campaign led Jewett to suggest that Grayson will have a tough time courting the Republican challenger’s erstwhile supporters.

“One could just not imagine any of those Republican primary voters going for Alan Grayson in the general election,” Jewett said.

Keller retains advantages as the district’s incumbent and reported $870,000 on hand through Aug. 6, according to his pre-primary report filed with the Federal Election Commission.

But working against Keller is an ever-evolving district population, including a surging Hispanic constituency, that has made the district increasingly competitive between the two major parties.