Will a Perfect Political Storm Sink Rep. Kanjorski?

The subject has definitely changed – topic No. 1 all over the country is the Bush administration’s request for $700 billion in taxpayer money to head off a wider financial meltdown. That could have been a great distraction for the Kanjorski campaign – changing the subject and moving the attention of the “free media” to what’s being done in Washington, where Mr. Kanjorski, as a senior member of the House Financial Services Committee, is perfectly positioned to be part of crafting a solution.

Mr. Barletta’s team found a way to turn Mr. Kanjorski’s potential plus into a minus, by casting a bill he once introduced as “legislation that would have made the subprime mortgage situation worse” and reminding constituents that it was a joint endeavor with ex-Rep. Bob Ney (R., Ohio), who served time as a result of the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal.

They’re also trying to push Mr. Kanjorski into rejecting the fund-raising help of Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles B. Rangel of New York – a two-fer, if it works, since it would both deny the campaign the money Mr. Rangel’s helping to raise and top it with a dose of guilt by association.

And then there’s the little matter of earmarks.

Actually, not so little. A company owned by Mr. Kanjorski’s daughter and nephews received $9.2 million in federal money through Kanjorski earmarks and later went belly-up.

All those waves of woe may not sink Mr. Kanjorski, but it’s starting to look dicey.

Conflicting Poll Results

Franklin and Marshall College released a poll that showed Mr. Kanjorski trailing, 44% to 35%, and with only half of the Democrats sampled saying they were likely to vote for him. “Even in safe districts, incumbents can wear out their welcome,” said G. Terry Madonna, director of the college’s Center for Politics and Public Affairs, which conducted the poll and distributed its results in full -- unlike the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which offered only a topline number in rebuttal. The DCCC said it had polling that showed Mr. Kanjorski up, 48% to 39%.

CQ Politics rates the race as leaning Democratic, which is one click better for Mr. Kanjorski than a toss-up. Of the most competitive races in the country, 24, including this one, are for seats held by Democrats while 37 are seats being defended by Republicans.

So far, according to CQ MoneyLine, Mr. Kanjorski has a substantial edge in campaign cash, the congressional campaign committees of both parties are supplanting the candidates’ own accounts, and there has been third-party advertising, as well.

Whoever wins, it will be fascinating to check out the exit polls and see whether illegal immigration touches as strong a nerve as the Barletta campaign believes — and whether Mr. Kanjorski’s long relationship with that electorate means voters are willing cut him some slack when he doesn’t know when to stop talking.

Correction: The original version of this column said that former Ku Klux Klan leader Duke had endorsed Republican candidate Barletta. This was an unsubstantiated allegation that Barletta refuted at the time and for which Kanjorski ultimately apologized.