By Neda Semnani, CQ Staff

Although Democratic Party strategists celebrated businessman Travis W. Childers’ May 13 special election runoff victory over Republican Greg Davis in Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District, they had legitimate worries about the candidates’ short-turnaround rematch in November’s general election. Childers would have less than six months to establish himself as a conservative Democratic incumbent in a district that gave 62 percent of its vote to President Bush in 2004, and easily elected Republican Roger Wicker to the House seven times before his appointment to a vacant U.S. Senate seat last December.

But Childers’ Democratic allies contend he has made the right moves during his brief House tenure to sufficiently prove that a Democrat can be conservative enough to maintain support of voters in his northern Mississippi district. They cite his advocacy of socially conservative positions such as gun owners’ rights and, most recently, his votes against the controversial economic stabilization legislation widely labeled as a “Wall Street bailout” that was advocated by Bush — and by the more liberal House Democratic leadership, from which Childers must keep sufficient distance to remain politically viable in Mississippi 1.

“In this district, you tread on thin ice if you’re seen as cooperating with Democratic leadership,” said Marty Wiseman, director of the John C. Stennis Institute of Government at Mississippi State University and a veteran expert on state elections. Wiseman said Childers has moved adeptly to establish an image of political independence by voting against the financial industry aid measure, introducing a bill to rein in gun control laws in the District of Columbia, and introducing a bill to address the concerns of small businesses.

“Childers did a good day’s work by latching on to the gun law — a wonderfully safe way of showing he’s pro-gun from now until the end of time — and voting against the bailout,” Wiseman stated.

Childers’ right-of-center positioning, which also was key to his special election victory, gives him a solid chance of parrying the comeback bid by Davis. CQ Politics rates their general election rematch as Leans Democratic.

Davis, the mayor of the 1st District city of Southaven, struggled through the special election campaign after a hard-fought primary earlier left him short of funds and politically bruised.

David Sancillo, Davis’ campaign manager, said the Republican candidate has shifted his strategy by “getting off the blacktop” — a reference to the paved roads in this mainly rural district — and instead going down the “gravel roads and knocking on doors” in an effort to persuade voters that he is the true conservative candidate.

But Dana Edlestein, communications director for Childers’ campaign, said of the Democratic incumbent, “His strategy has been to do as a congressman what he said he would do as a candidate.” Adding her opinion that “he has done an incredible amount in a short period of time,” Edlestein noted Childers’ populist postion on the bailout bill, saying, “The congressman didn’t — and doesn’t — believe it is the responsibility of middle-class taxpayers to bail out Wall Street’s recklessness.”

John Anzalone, whose consulting firm Anzalone Liszt does polling for Childers, praised Childers’ political instincts. “When it comes down to it, he is of the district,” Anzalone said. “More than most candidates and representatives, he understands his district completely, at a gut level.”

But Childers will not have an easy race against Davis, whom he defeated by 54 percent to 46 percent in May. Davis has a reputation as a hard-charging campaigner, though Wiseman suggested that he might need to tone it down a bit after catching flak earlier this year for campaign tactics that critics branded as too negative. Davis ran what critics portrayed as particularly harsh attack ads against Republican primary rival Glenn McCullough, a former Tupelo mayor and former chairman of the Tennesse Valley Authority.

“He is a tough campaigner and a tough politician as he demonstrated — to his own detriment — during the last election,” Wiseman said.

Davis allies say he is applying a more expansive and grass-roots approach to the current campaign. Sancillo said, “In Mississippi, we’re a little different. We’ll ‘cuss and discuss’ all through the week, but then go to church together on Sunday.”

Cory Adair, director of legislative affairs with the Mississippi Republican Party said, “At this point, the race is closer than Congressman Childers is comfortable with. Mayor Davis does have a chance to win this election.”