CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Oct. 10, 2008 – 12:01 a.m.
Dems Gain in CQ Politics’ Four Senate Rating Changes
By Greg Giroux, Marie Horrigan and Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff
CQ Politics has changed its ratings on four races for Senate seats currently held by Republicans, in Minnesota, Kentucky, Georgia and Virginia. And it will come as no surprise to anyone who has been closely following the battles for party control this year that all four changes signify improved chances for the Democratic candidates to win.
Democratic gains in this year’s Senate races — on top of the six they won to capture a majority in the 2006 elections — have appeared a given since the start of this election cycle. The playing field, even if the Republican Party were in better shape than it is now, would be tilted against the GOP as it defends 23 seats to the Democrats’ 12. Making matters worse for the Republicans, the national political environment is very nearly as toxic for the party as it was in 2006, with President Bush’s job approval ratings flirting with historic lows and the nation’s tanking economy replacing the prolonged Iraq war as the biggest political millstone around the party’s neck.
Still, the Democrats set a very lofty goal of gaining nine seats to get to an organizational hold on 60, which would deliver what is often (if not totally accurately) described as a “filibuster-proof” majority — so called because a three-fifths vote is needed to end stalling tactics and send legislation to a final vote on the Senate floor. To get near that goal, the Democrats have to accomplish two things: solidify their leads in races for Republican seats in which they appear to hold an edge, and put even greater pressure on other races that are either tossups or Republican-leaning.
These latest rating changes, based on the CQ Politics staff’s reporting, find that the Democrats are making some progress on both fronts. Their efforts to push more contests into possible takeover range are seen in the Minnesota race, changed to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican, in which Democrat Al Franken, a well-known entertainer, is seeking to capture the seat held by first-term Republican Sen. Norm Coleman .
This also is seen in the contests in Kentucky and Georgia, formerly rated Republican Favored, which are now in CQ Politics’ more competitive Leans Republican category. Signs that these races have heated up are likely to embolden Democratic activists, who would really love to beat the incumbents in each of those states. In Kentucky, that’s Mitch McConnell , both because many Democrats have labeled him as a legislative obstructionist in his role as the current Senate minority leader and because Democratic loyalists would relish getting even for the Republicans’ successful effort in 2004 to oust South Dakota Sen. Tom Daschle when he was minority leader. In Georgia, Democrats still rankle over the strongly negative campaign ads that Republican Saxby Chambliss ran in his 2002 campaign to unseat Democratic Sen. Max Cleland.
On the other side, one of the five Senate contests in which Democrats are rated as holding an edge by CQ Politics, the one in Virginia, has gone from an almost certain pickup to a virtual lock. In a race between two former governors, popular Democrat Mark Warner has led not-so-popular Republican James S. Gilmore III by landslide margins in several polls.
Overall, CQ Politics now rates five Republican seats as leaning slightly or strongly to the Democrats, three that are rated No Clear Favorite (or tossup) and four that are rated Leans Republican. Only one Democratic seat is in a highly competitive category: the one in Louisiana, defended by two-term Sen. Mary L. Landrieu , which is rated Leans Democratic.
The four new rating changes are summarized below.
• Minnesota Senate (New: No Clear Favorite. Previous Rating: Leans Republican)
The Minnesota contest features idiosyncratic nominees in both major parties. Republican incumbent Coleman is a former Democrat who in 2002 very narrowly defeated former Vice President Walter F. Mondale, who stepped in as a replacement after two-term Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone, a liberal icon, died in a plane crash just days before the election. Democratic challenger Franken, a well-known comic, is a longtime liberal activist making his first bid for public office. Throw in an unusually strong third contender in Independence Party nominee Dean Barkley — briefly an appointed senator following Wellstone’s death in 2002 — and all the ingredients for an unpredictable race were in place.
Even so, the trajectory of the race has had an unusual number of zigs and zags. Franken, a former Saturday Night Live writer/performer and former Air America radio host, nearly saw his campaign implode this summer when critics raised questions about some of his racier writings during his career as a satirist. He also faced some bad publicity about back taxes.
But Coleman also has faced flak over allegations that he got a sweetheart rental deal from a lobbyist for his Washington, D.C., residence, and more recently over whether he had received and failed to report gifts of expensive clothing.
Yet the precipitating event in Coleman’s recent slip in polls appears to be his vote in support of the controversial financial industry “bailout” legislation last week. A Rasmussen poll released Thursday found that Franken led Coleman 43 percent to 37 percent while Barkley took 17 percent. A recent poll by Minnesota Public Radio and the Humphrey Institute at University of Minnesota showed Franken leading Coleman 41 percent to 37 percent, while Barkley got 14 percent.
Dems Gain in CQ Politics’ Four Senate Rating Changes
Third-party candidates often siphon anti-incumbent votes from challengers. But in this race, Barkley is gaining support from both parties because of the unpopularity of Coleman’s vote on the bailout measure, said Lawrence Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota. “Republicans are revolting against Coleman,” he said.
Jacobs said that Barkley’s performance in polling also indicates voters from both parties are looking for alternatives. “It reflects both the high unfavorables for both Coleman and Franken and the defections of both independents and Democrats and Republicans from their headliners,” he said.
• Kentucky Senate (New Rating: Leans Republican. Previous Rating: Republican Favored)
CQ Politics still gives Kentucky Republican McConnell the edge in his quest for a fifth Senate term, though his race now appears to be highly competitive rather than mildly competitive.
Three surveys released in the past week or so show a tightening race between McConnell and Democrat Bruce Lunsford, a wealthy businessman and twice-unsuccessful candidate for Kentucky governor. A Rasmussen Reports survey on Sept. 30 had McConnell ahead by 51 percent to 42 percent over Lunsford, who founded a chain of nursing homes. Other recent surveys by the Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA firms showed McConnell’s lead down in the low single digits.
Lunsford’s use of his personal wealth in this campaign has helped him stay more competitive with the well-funded McConnell than he otherwise might be. Lunsford also is getting a boost from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the cash-rich political arm of Senate Democrats that on Wednesday began airing an anti-McConnell television ad.
McConnell says that the clout he wields as Senate Republican leader is helpful to Kentucky, and he says that Lunsford — who is about six years younger than the 66-year-old McConnell — couldn’t possibly serve long enough to amass similar pull in the Senate, where the incumbent has served since he was 42. But the strong public disapproval of Congress and the poor image of the Republican Party in general are major obstacles for McConnell to surmount, as he tries to fend off efforts by Lunsford and Democrats in general to brand him as blocking legislation important to average Americans.
• Georgia Senate (New Rating: Leans Republican. Previous Rating: Republican Favored)
Chambliss, in his 2002 Senate challenge, ran ads about the issue of homeland security that appeared to raise questions about Democratic incumbent Cleland’s patriotism and willingness to defend the country. This drew strong blowback from Democrats who took issue with this characterization of Cleland, a Vietnam War veteran who lost both legs and an arm while serving in that conflict. Chambliss nonetheless bested Cleland by nearly 7 percentage points — a win that was crucial to the narrow Senate majority the GOP claimed in that election year, leaving Democrats even angrier.
Despite the party’s eagerness to challenge Chambliss in 2008, Democrats at first struggled to recruit a challenger for the seat. Party leaders settled on former state Rep. Jim Martin, who ran a competitive but unsuccessful race for lieutenant governor in 2006. But Martin failed to clear the Democratic field for this year’s Senate primary and drew competitive opponents who forced him to expend funds and effort before finally claiming the nomination in a runoff.
As the incumbent of a conservative state who drew no primary opposition, Chambliss was pegged early on as a clear favorite in the race. Georgia supported Bush for president in 2004 with 58 percent of the vote to 41 percent for Democrat John Kerry .
But Chambliss’ lead in polls has slipped significantly in recent weeks. Political scientist Charles S. Bullock III at the University of Georgia believes Chambliss’ vote for the financial industry “bailout” plan last week contributed to his recent plunge. Chambliss voted for the measure with Johnny Isakson , the state’s other Republican senator, but all seven Republicans in the state’s House delegation voted against the legislation.
Bullock also noted that Barack Obama ’s presidential campaign has inspired a big increase in Democratic voter registration in the state, including among African-Americans, who threaten to complicate Chambliss’ hold on the seat.
Dems Gain in CQ Politics’ Four Senate Rating Changes
Another wild card is the candidacy of Bob Barr, a former U.S. House member from Georgia, as the Libertarian Party’s nominee for president. His presence on the ballot holds the potential to boost the candidacy of Allen Buckley, who could draw some votes from Chambliss as the Libertarian Senate nominee.
In addition, Bullock said Martin’s television ads have been more prominent than Chambliss’ and may contribute to the challenger’s recent bump in the polls.
The fact that the race is closer than expected may have been unintentionally underscored Wednesday by Chambliss’ campaign, which touted a recent Rasmussen poll that showed the incumbent ahead of Martin 50 to 44 percent — a lead, but hardly an overwhelming one.
• Virginia (New Rating: Safe Democratic. Previous Rating: Democrat Favored)
Everything that could go wrong for Republicans has gone wrong in the race to succeed retiring five-term Sen. John W. Warner , a highly popular Republican elder statesman. Republican nominee Gilmore, who was Virginia’s governor from 1998 through 2001, is simply overmatched against Democrat Mark Warner, Gilmore’s well-regarded successor as governor, who is no relation to the departing incumbent.
On a wide array of political criteria — fundraising, candidate quality, voter registration, the political environment, voter registration and voter enthusiasm — Warner and the Democrats have the substantial edge.
CQ Politics never considered this race highly competitive, but kept it in the mildly competitive Democrat Favored category to hold open the slim possibility that Gilmore might be able to close the gap, because of his past prominence and because of Virginia’s long-standing Republican lean in presidential elections. But a decade-long Democratic trend in Virginia is highlighted by the fact that some polls show Obama pulling ahead of McCain in a state where Republicans hold a 10-election presidential winning streak. The most recent independent poll in the Senate race had Warner leading Gilmore by 30 points.
Comments
How come OR is still rated as a LEAN REP. IT should be moved to a Tossup. and NC should be moved to a Lean DEM.
Saxby Chambliss won in 2002 because the head of Diebold "fixed" voting machines in Atlanta and Savannah. When will the mainstream media print the truth?
Gee Dan, why dont you take off that tin foil hat?
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