CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Oct. 10, 2008 – 4:47 p.m.
CQ Politics Map Now Shows Obama on Victory Trail — But Detours Possible
By Bob Benenson, CQ Staff
CQ Politics has significantly revised its presidential ratings map, and Democratic nominee Barack Obama has what could be a comfortable Electoral College victory over Republican John McCain — if he is able to maintain the momentum he has built over the past few weeks.
The map now shows that the states in which Obama is rated safe, heavily favored or slightly favored total 311 electoral votes, well above the 270 that represent the bare majority of electoral votes needed to win the election. McCain is rated safe or favored in states totaling 174 electoral votes, and would not get close to 270 even if he were to win all three states CQ Politics currently rates as No Clear Favorite tossups. They have a total of 53 electoral votes,
CQ Politics changed its ratings on the presidential contests in 12 states, all of which indicate stronger chances for Obama to win. These changes were prompted by the strong shift of both national and state-level polls in Obama’s direction, and the dominance of the nation’s deepening economic problems as the central issue of the campaign — an issue that appears to be reverberating mostly against the Republicans as the party defending the White House, and on which McCain has struggled to find a tone that voters find consistent and reassuring.
Before these latest changes, Obama was rated as having an edge for 260 electoral votes, short of the necessary majority. His tally moved above the 270 mark with the shifts of Ohio (20 electoral votes), Virginia (13), Colorado (9), Nevada (5) and New Hampshire (4), which had been rated No Clear Favorite, into the Leans Democratic category. Each of those states except New Hampshire favored Bush in the 2004 election.
The ratings also reflect CQ Politics’ analysis that Obama’s leads have solidified in five states expected to be battlegrounds in his contest with McCain: Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10) and Iowa (7). Bush carried Iowa in 2004 by a very narrow margin, while Democratic challenger John Kerry won close races in the other four states.
Meanwhile, McCain’s electoral vote score in CQ Politics’ ratings slipped from 198 to 174, as both North Carolina (13 electoral votes) and Missouri (11) slipped from Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite. Both of these were Bush states four years ago.
We also deliberated over three states where Obama is running close or even leading in some polls, but decided for now to leave Florida (27 electoral votes) as No Clear Favorite and both Indiana (11) and West Virginia (5) as Leans Republican.
The caveat, of course, is the cliche that a week is a long time in politics, and there are more than three weeks left for McCain to make a breakthrough. If he were able to reclaim all of the same states Bush won in 2004, McCain would, of course, be elected, albeit narrowly.
Comments
Fascinating. Do I hear echoes of '32? At this point, I'll just take '96.
All of these polls, keep saying Obama is ahead. Well I live in Pa. and there are still alot of HRC Supporters here, who will never for for him.
"Well I live in Pa. and there are still alot of HRC Supporters here, who will never for for him" The only reason someone who would support Hillary would NOT support Obama-Biden against McCain-Palin is racism. There is simply no other possible reason.
Bravo Bill. HRC supporters who dont' show up for Obama are either racist or so bitter that they would allow the possibility of McCain to be elected, who is fundamentally opposed to HRC across the board. Country first, right?
Echo's of '32? No, echo's of '64 when Barry Goldwater's right wing angry rant about extremism in the defense of liberty lost him the election.
Lampe: "All of these polls, keep saying Obama is ahead. Well I live in Pa. and there are still alot of HRC Supporters here, who will never for for him." Fine. Those Clinton supporters who say they're not voting for Obama should be reflected in the polls. So what's the argument that the polls are wrong?
Next set of questions: 1) Will Obama reach the 50%+1 threshold, a la Carter in 1976?; 2) Will Obama at least post a double-digit-percentage-point finish ahead of the main un-Obama ticket, a la Wilson in '12?; 3) Could it even be both, a la FDR in '32?
Lampe states that a llot of HRC live in PA who will never support Obama. I have to challenge him on that. HRC supporters are the deepest blue of deep blue Democrats. It is hard to imagine them voting Republican, it is even harder to imagine them voting Republican to support such an intensely partisan candidate as John McCain. Barack Obama has articulated a progressive and humane vision for our shared future that Hillary Clinton has embraced and that will benefit all Americans.
The question by now is not whether HRC supporters will back Obama, It is whether they would vote McCain. Clearly the answer is no, and the Republican base (which is disillusioned and rapidly shrinking) simply cannot take up the slack. This election is over.
You know, this Obama landslide stuff, I just don't agree with it. You guys are getting way too intense about this. Yes, by and large the country wants a Democrat and this is by all accounts a Democratic year. But it won't be the big landslide victory that people thought it would be. You have to remember that Obama is african america and anytime you put a new factor into the election, that changes the results automatically. Plus, McCain is a far more competitive candidate than any of the other GOP's who ran this year. If Obama was a white, centrist Democrat running against Dick Cheney, then we could rightfully predict a landslide.
Well I am from Virginia. I can't tell you the number of people who a: refuse to vote for John McCain but will not vote for Obama (those Republicans that are "staying home"). B: Will be voting for Obama outright (I have not heard a Single HRC supporter say that they would not vote for him, on the contrary are offended by the pick of Palin and C: Those Republicans (like my Brother) who shared with me a drunken tidbit that he will vote for Obama but tell everyone that he voted for McCain. A sort of reverse Bradley effect. For the first time in my lifetime Virginia will definitely be voting Democratic this year.
I think Senator Obama will be our next President. The people who call themselves "Hillary Supporters" are an interesting phenomena, although I suspect thay are a very small minority in Real Life. On the Internet (or as W. would say, "the Internets"), they show up the way Howard Stern fans do on Talk Show Call-in's, to say, "The Clinton's rule!" As a Democrat who voted for each Clinton twice, I am amazed at how hardy the PUMA people are. Here in my hometown of Buffalo, NY, I know more people who hate Hillary than support her. And with the exception of some young women who were excited by Hillary's Presidential bid, even the people who vote for her do so reluctantly. What supporters of Hillary seem to e unaware of is how fatigued many, many Democrats and Americans are with The Clinton Wars. It is time to turn the page, and I hope President Obama offers Hillary a SCOTUS position. She is an interesting person who made her deal with being Bill's spouse. It brought her a Senatorial seat; it cost her any integrity she may have once had.
The probability, after reading the above, must be zero for victory for McCain.
Re: "All of these polls, keep saying Obama is ahead. Well I live in Pa. and there are still alot of HRC Supporters here, who will never for for him." Isn't it embarassing to realilze that you neglected to proofread an obtuse diatribe before hitting "post this comment?" Anyway, my 81 year-old father lives in Swissvale just outside of Pittsburgh PA. Although he supported HRC during the primaries, he's now become an Obama supporter. It took a while for him to become comfortable with Obama, but the candidate's evident merit eventually swayed him. I think many people have found Obama to be sensible, balanced, compassionate, persuasive and quite competent. And they like the notion of such a person occupying 1600 Pennsylvania Ave right now. We've had eight years of "swagger" and "shoot from the hip" leadership. Look where it's led the country.
Sam, excellent observations about Obama. I live in a conservative congressional district in Maryland. I was amazed to see Obama signs in my congressional district. Of course there is no doubt that Maryland that Maryland being 2 to 1 democratic will vote for Obama. The tone I hear about Obama from 'reasonable ' people is seldom about his name or color but what he has to offer this country. if Obama was white he would be leading by 20 points and should be. Somehow many people must believe that people of color have different dreams than those of us who are absent color. I have never spoken to a person of any color who does not want a safe neighborhood, a clean environment, good schools, access to affordable health care and reasonable tax policies. With the last 8 years of runaway spending, enormous tax cuts, 2 wars and the national debt doubling, if Obama is elected he is going to face some very difficult challenges to solve these financial problems. There is going to have to be some share sacrifices for the financial sins of the past. Everyone has a case of the give me this and give me that, but no one wants to pay for what the want. I just read from the Centers for Medicare and Medicare 2008 Statistics booklet that in 2007 they spent $782.7 Billion on Medicare, Medicaid and Children's Health Insurance Program. Where do people think this money comes from? Wake up folks there is no free lunch.
It's becoming likely that Obama will net 52% + of the National Popular Vote which could reach as high as 55%, though I think about 53% is most likely result. I think we are looking at a possible Electoral College landslide of 350+ Electoral Votes as we return to the typical pattern of Presidential elections where the popular vote margin is magnified in the EC. We appear to be looking at a widespread Mandate for Change as Democrats increase their Senate Majority to 58-62 seats while adding seats in the House, approaching 250 seats. This could be a Major Realignment Election.
I can't understand for the life of me, why anyone gives a hoot about the color of Obama's skin. Black, brown, red, yellow, white, pink, purple, whatever - we are all lacking the green i.e. money. that is the main thing I am thinking about. I have heard a plan from Senators Obama and Biden (actually a combination of plans). I have heard fear, suspicion and division from Senator McCain and Governor Palin, but not much in the way of plans. I will go with the man with a plan, no matter how much melanin his skin contains.
Any HRC supporter who would vote for McCain just doesn't care about certan principles, especially a woman's right to choose, And now that Sarah Palin is in the picture, anyone who would vote for her is just plain nuts. She is the proverbial "blank slate" now being filled with neocon dreams of controlling the world. She, who had the right to choose to give birth to her baby, who force every other woman to do the same.
What if Jusus was black and he came to offer heaven or hell just accept him would be heaven, reject him would be hell, but there is one catch Jusus is black. Well this is your test. Not that I'm saying Jesus is black, but what if he is would you choose hell becaues of his color.
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