CQ POLITICS NEWS
Oct. 21, 2008 – 12:07 a.m.
Balance of Power Scorecard: Dems Show Muscle, But Many Tossup Races Remain
By Bob Benenson, CQ Politics Editor
Two weeks before Election Day, the competitive advantage that the Democrats have held over the Republicans in the battle for seats in Congress has grown. Over the past week, CQ Politics changed its ratings on 29 House races — all but one of which signified stronger chances for the Democratic candidates. Most of these changes were outlined in stories published on Friday and on Saturday.
While there were no new rating changes in the Senate races, the Democrats continued to run serious campaigns for 12 Republican-held seats, while only one Democratic seat is the subject of a Republican takeover bid that looks the least bit competitive.
Yet CQ Politics’ Balance of Power scorecards for the Senate and the House show that the degree to which the Democrats will pad their current majorities in both chambers continues to be uncertain. That is because many of the contests are rated No Clear Favorite, meaning that they still appear too close to call.
The Senate scorecard shows the Democrats likely to have at least 56 seats after the election, based on CQ Politics’ current ratings. That figure — which includes independents Bernard Sanders of Vermont and Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, who caucus with the Democrats for organizational purposes — reflects five contests in which the Democrats are slightly to strongly favored to take over Republican-held seats: the open-seat races in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado and the challenges to incumbents Ted Stevens of Alaska and John E. Sununu of New Hampshire.
If the Democrats are to meet or exceed their oft-stated goal of claiming 60 or more seats, for a so-called “filibuster-proof majority,” they would have to win all five of those races, and either sweep the four races for Republican seats currently rated as No Clear Favorite, or pick off one or more of the three seats in the competitive races rated Leans Republican.
The most recent independent polls suggest a Democratic sweep is not an outlandish proposition, though.
• In Oregon, where Republican Sen. Gordon Smith is seeking a third term, polls by Survey USA and Research 2000 showed Democrat Jeff Merkley, the state House Speaker, with leads of 5 and 6 percentage points, respectively, while the most recent Rasmussen organization’s poll showed the race tied.
• In the high-profile Minnesota race, first-term Republican incumbent Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken, a well-known entertainer, were in statistical ties in polls taken by Quinnipiac University, Research 2000 and Survey USA, with both candidates hovering around the 40 percent mark. The only constant being the 18 percent pulled in each poll by third-party candidate Dean Barkley.
• In North Carolina, first-term Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole trailed Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan by 4 percentage points in a Research 2000 poll.
• In Mississippi’s Senate special election, appointed Republican Sen. Roger Wicker led Democratic former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove by a statistical insignificant 1-point margin in a Research 2000 poll.
Democrats are hoping for even bigger upsets. Republicans Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, challenged by Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford, and Saxby Chambliss of Georgia, opposed by Democratic former state Rep. Jim Martin, hung on to small but uncertain leads in their most recent polls, while Susan Collins , Maine’s popular two-term senator, maintained a wider lead over Democratic Rep. Tom Allen . The only Democrat facing a threatening challenge, two-term Louisiana Sen. Mary L. Landrieu , appears in fairly good shape in her race against Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy, now rated Leans Democratic.
The House Balance of Power scorecard masks somewhat the Democrats’ potential for big gains. With two weeks left to go, there are 235 races rated Leans Democratic (17), Democrat Favored (16) or Safe Democratic (202), which actually is one seat fewer than the party currently holds. But the Republicans currently are slightly to strongly favored for just 176 seats — 23 fewer than they now have — with 25 rated Leans Republican, 25 rated Republican Favored and 126 rated Safe Republican.
This past week brought one of the few clear gains this fall for the Republicans. The rating on the race in Florida’s 16th District, where freshman Democrat Tim Mahoney is the incumbent, was changed from No Clear Favorite to Leans Republican, making it the only Democratic seat currently deemed likely to fall to the Republicans. Mahoney, who won the seat in 2006 largely because of the scandal involving resigned Republican Rep. Mark Foley’s inappropriate advances on underage male pages, was hit with a sex scandal of his own, admitting to multiple extramarital relationships, including one with a woman staffer whom he paid a large sum of money to avoid a sexual harassment lawsuit.
Yet this race is offset by six in which Democratic candidates are currently favored to win Republican-held seats.
The underlying numbers show how the Democrats have the potential to make another double-digit gain on top of the 30 House seats the party picked up in the 2006 elections and the additional three captured in special elections earlier this year.
• Of the 24 contests currently rated No Clear Favorite, 18 are for seats now held by Republicans while only six are for Democratic-held seats.
• Another 24 competitive Democratic upset bids for Republican seats are in the Leans Republican category, while the GOP is chasing only 13 Democratic seats rated Leans Democratic.
• Among long-shot upset bids, there are 25 for Republican seats rated Republican Favored and 14 for Democratic seats rated Democrat Favored.
Totaled up, the Democrats have put 73 Republican seats in play, while Republicans are staging serious challenges for only 34 Democratic seats — an imbalanced ratio of more than 2-to-1.
CQ Politics will continue to refine its ratings through Election Day, with a particular focus on trying to define who is likely to pull out victories in those tossup races.




Comments
I appreciate the quality publication you publish, but I would like to give you one tip that would make things easier for us readers. Please have a place on your Web site where we can see the latest changes you make in your Congressional race ratings -- and put a date on when the changes are made (as Cook Reports does). After digging, I found a link on your Web site called "Latest Changes" but that link does NOT work. You hit the button and are linked to a Web site that just says "Ooops" and tells readers that THEY made a mistake. This particular story says there have been 29 changes. Last week, you had stories listing 24. It is a hell of a lot easier if you had something listing the most recent five changes rather than having us read through the whole list just to figure it out. Thank you.
I agree 100%. Rothenberg, Cook, Sabato, and Swing State Project all indicate exactly what was changed, instead of just making the changes and expecting us to remember what they were previously in order to tell what was changed.
Michelle got more than a little loose in that cinterview. Her speech was pressured and her reasoning tortured. She needs get settled down. A little medication or some rest might help her. I hope she's not having a nervous breakdown.
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