CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Oct. 28, 2008 – 5:12 a.m.
Economic Issues Key in Kansas Dem Boyda’s Tight House Race
By Leah Nylen, CQ Staff
Freshman Democrat Nancy Boyda , who won an upset victory two years ago in the conservative-leaning 2nd District of Kansas, is one of the few incumbents of her party who appears at significant risk in this year’s House elections. With her race against Republican state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins rated No Clear Favorite by CQ Politics, Boyda’s hopes for a second term depends on whether the economic issues that top most voters’ priorities break her way or not.
Polls suggest that the major problems currently facing the U.S. economy are hurting Republicans as the party holding the White House and are helping Democrats. Boyda — who was boosted greatly by the anti-Republican tide in 2006, when she unseated five-term Republican Rep. Jim Ryun by nearly 4 percentage points — has to hope that tide doesn’t break before Election Day in her sprawling and usually Republican Kansas district, which includes the state capital of Topeka, the military bases Fort Riley and Fort Leavenworth, and plentiful rural territory.
In 2004, Boyda staged an initial challenge to Ryun and lost by 15 points, while 2nd District votes favored President Bush by 20 points. Since her 2006 victory, Boyda has done something of a balancing act on economic issues. She joined most Democrats in voting to increase the national minimum wage and supported a bill to expand a health care program for lower-income children whose families lack insurance. But Boyda has also sided with conservatives on issues such as limiting illegal immigration and in voting about a month ago against both the failed and successful version of legislation to implement a financial industry assistance package (widely described as the “bailout” bill).
Boyda is so determined to maintain an image as a political independent that she asked, for the second consecutive election, that national Democratic Party organizations stay out of her race. Officials at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) — who had been poised to put roughly $1.2 million into independent expenditures for TV ads aimed at swaying voters to Boyda’s side — initially said they would honor Boyda’s request, made in August, to keep their distance. But last week, the DCCC overruled and began airing a 30-second TV spot in the 2nd District.
Still, unlike DCCC independent expenditure campaigns in many districts that harshly criticize Republican candidates, the Kansas 2 ad highlights some of Boyda’s legislative efforts over the past two years and makes no mention of challenger Jenkins.
But Jenkins, who narrowly edged the comeback-minded Ryun in the district’s Aug. 5 primary, has described herself as a fiscal conservative whose views are more in line with district voters, while emphasizing her own credentials on economic issues as the state’s two-term elected treasurer and as a certified public accountant. She supports extending the tax cuts pushed into law during Bush’s first term as president and signed a pledge to oppose all tax increases.
In a TV ad, Jenkins accused Boyda of voting for “the largest tax increase in history” — a reference to a non-binding budget resolution that would have allowed the Bush tax cuts to expire.
Boyda has said she supports tax cuts in general, but not “reckless” spending that would add to the deficit.
Local politics watchers think the race could go either way.
“Jenkins has said she considers [the 2nd district] a Republican seat, and I think there is something to that,” said Bob Beatty, a political science professor at Washburn University in Topeka. “It is a district that’s tough for a Democrat to win. In a presidential year with more voters, are they willing to keep a Democrat to be their rep?”
But Burdett Loomis, a political science professor from the University of Kansas in Lawrence, said of Jenkins’ tax argument, “I think it’s hard to pin much on Boyda. She’s pretty darn conservative. I’m not sure that that’s been going very far.”
Loomis added that the grass-roots enthusiasm that Barack Obama ’s presidential campaign has generated could boost turnout among the Democratic Party base even in a district like Kansas 2 that is expected to go fairly handily to Republican John McCain . If that occurs, it could temper the conventional wisdom that increased presidential year turnout should benefit the Republican ticket.
“It’s a good Democratic year, even in Kansas,” said Loomis. “This district has been represented by Democrats in the past. It’s more of a populist district than a Republican or Democratic district. I think Boyda fits that really well.”
Economic Issues Key in Kansas Dem Boyda’s Tight House Race
Boyda, however, is one of the few Democratic candidates who is not eager for outside Democratic Party assistance, even though she is in one of the few races nationally in which a Republican challenger is at parity in overall fundraising with a Democratic incumbent. A surge in fundraising by Jenkins — who received assists from prominent Republicans such as first lady Laura Bush and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a contender earlier this year for the GOP presidential nomination — helped her edge out to a tiny $4,000 edge over Boyda in total receipts through Oct. 15, with both candidates reporting roughly $1.58 million. Jenkins, despite the heavy expenditures she had to make in her primary campaign against Ryun, also had a small lead in campaign cash on hand, $362,000 to $336,000, with 20 days to go before Election Day.
The uncertain outcome of the 2nd District race has given it more of the political spotlight than the state’s two more marginally competitive contests: in the neighboring 3rd District, where centrist Democrat Dennis Moore is seeking a sixth House term in a race against Republican State Sen. Nick Jordan, and the Senate contest, in which Republican Sen. Pat Roberts is favored in his bid for a third term over Democratic Jim Slattery, a former U.S. House member.
Roberts has maintained solid appeal over a long congressional career that covered 16 years (1981-97) in a western Kansas U.S. House district prior to the current 12-year Senate tenure that he is trying to extend for another six. He has a conservative voting record but has not been known as an ideological firebrand, giving him an image similar to the one that former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole wore successfully for many years.
The most recent independent poll on the race, by Survey USA, showed Roberts with a 57 percent to 35 percent lead over Slattery, who is returning to politics after a long hiatus practicing law and lobbying in Washington, D.C. Slattery was touted by some as a Democratic rising star as he represented an earlier version of the 2nd District for 12 years following his first win in 1982. But after being often mentioned as a potential statewide candidate, he picked the wrong time — the strongly Republican year of 1994 — to take the plunge, and was trounced by Republican Bill Graves in that year’s race for governor.
Nonetheless, Slattery’s bid at least provides serious competition for Roberts, against whom Democrats failed to even field a candidate when he last ran in 2002. And Slattery gained some attention in recent weeks with an offbeat ad campaign that is the brainchild of Bill Hillsman, who earned a reputation for quirky advertising representing Minnesota politicians such as the late Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone and independent Gov. Jesse Ventura. One of the ads, aimed at making a point about health care, shows dozens of patients in hospital gowns walking around with their bottoms exposed. Another depicts a gigantic man hosing down little people who are upset about the financial bailout package, though viewers might get the initial impression that the victims are being urinated on.
Although the chances of a Slattery win are small, Washburn’s Beatty said the ads have garnered the Democrat some attention. “Everyone’s taking a new look because of the ads,” Beatty said.
CQ Politics rates the Senate race as Republican Favored.
Attention is a bit harder to come by for Republican challenger Jordan in his 3rd District race against Democratic House incumbent Moore. They are competing in the Kansas City suburbs and thus have to compete for attention with the candidates in Missouri’s presidential battleground race and in the highly competitive House race between Republican Rep. Sam Graves and Democratic former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes in Missouri’s 6th District.
Jordan was heavily recruited by Republican officials after lackluster performances by their past two challengers helped Moore settle in for easy victories, including his career-high 65 percent of the vote in 2006. But political scientist Loomis said voters’ comfort level with Moore is high enough that he was able to risk voting for both versions of the financial industry rescue legislation.
“By a variety of measures, Jordan is a reasonably good candidate,” Loomis said. “But Dennis has 10 years served as incumbent. The district is pretty sympathetic to him. I think a Jordan-like candidate eight years ago could have really given Dennis some fits. But [Moore] is well-established now.”
CQ Politics rates the contest as Democrat Favored.
Comments
Surprisingly, the Wichita Eagle, the state's largest paper, endorsed Slattery after twice endorsing Roberts in his previous races. Slattery also got the nod from the Kansas City Star and Hays Daily News in northwestern Kansas.
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