By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

Although Georgia’s 7 p.m. poll closing time Tuesday will be one of the earliest in the nation, the state’s suddenly neck-and-neck Senate race between once heavily favored Republican Saxby Chambliss and Democratic challenger Jim Martin may be one of the last to be decided. In fact, because Georgia law requires a candidate to win a majority of the vote to be elected, it is altogether possible that a Dec. 2 runoff may be needed to resolve the issue.

If that were to occur — and especially if the Democrats’ expected big Senate gains elsewhere leave them teetering on the brink of a 60-seat “filibuster-proof” majority — Georgia could find itself at the center of the nation’s political universe at a time when even many campaign die-hards would prefer an election-free Thanksgiving holiday.

Charles S. Bullock III, University of Georgia political scientist told CQ Politics Friday, “We may start feeling like New Hampshire voters,” a reference to how politicians and the media flock to that state every four years for its first-in-the-nation presidential primary. Bullock suggested that Barack Obama , whose political fate as the Democratic presidential nominee will be decided Tuesday, and other high-ranking figures will likely flock to Georgia if a win would push Democrats to 60 seats. That is the goal set by Democratic strategists, whose party currently has effective control of a narrow 51-seat majority, because a three-fifths vote is needed to end delaying tactics on Senate legislation.

Chambliss and Martin, a former state representative, are locked in a race that has turned into one of the most hotly contested this year — prompting CQ Politics to change its rating, previously Leans Republican, to No Clear Favorite. The change came in the wake of a series of independent polls that showed Martin, once a distinct underdog, had surged into a statistical dead heat against Chambliss, with the incumbent slipping under the all-important 50 percent threshold and Libertarian Party nominee Allen Buckley pulling a small but crucial percentage that could push the race into overtime.

Bullock said a runoff appears “increasingly likely.”

An Oct. 30 Rasmussen Reports poll found Chambliss received 48 percent support and Martin had 43 percent. Buckley received seven percent and two percent were undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 28-30 showed the race even closer, with Chambliss taking 47 percent to 46 percent for Martin and five percent for Buckley, and a four percent margin of error; the nonpartisan firm conducts surveys that are published by the liberal DailyKos Web site.

This scenario could not have appeared more unlikely this summer, when CQ Politics rated the race a barely competitive Republican Favored. Although Chambliss’ bitterly contested victory over Democratic Sen. Max Cleland in 2002 left a sour taste for many Georgians, he appeared to settle comfortably into the seat with a low-key manner and a focus on issues, such as agriculture and defense, which are high priorities in the state. State Democrats, who have been in long-running political slump, struggled to recruit a top-tier candidate, and Martin, after losing a competitive 2006 race for lieutenant governor, had to endure a primary runoff before clinching the party’s nomination on Aug. 5.

But Martin surged into competition because of two major factors. The first of these was a major effort by the Democratic Party and Obama’s campaign to put Georgia, usually a Republican presidential stronghold, into play. These stepped-up voter registration and turnout efforts, especially among an overwhelmingly Democratic African-American constituency that makes up more than a quarter of the state’s population, at least knocked Georgia off the list of states that are safe bets for Republican presidential nominee John McCain — and created an unexpected “coattails” potential for Martin.

The other major factor is that as Martin edged up in polls, Democratic activists embittered by Chambliss’ 2002 campaign saw an opportunity to even the score. Democrats have been eager to go after Chambliss ever since he attacked Cleland as weak on homeland security in a way that questioned the Democrat’s courage. Cleland, a former Veterans Affairs secretary, lost both legs and an arm in an explosion while serving in the Vietnam War.

Democrats’ anger was inflamed by the fact that Chambliss’ victory over Cleland, by seven percentage points in a strongly Republican year, was crucial to the GOP’s successful effort that year to take control of the Senate.

Bullock and other Georgia political analysts say Chambliss’ vote for the recently enacted $700 billion financial industry assistance plan — widely called the “bailout” bill, especially by critics — also contributed to a sharp drop in the polls for the one-term incumbent. Chambliss joined Johnny Isakson , the state’s other Republican senator, in supporting the measure, but all seven Republicans in the state’s House delegation voted against the legislation.

It is unclear who will have the advantage if Chambliss is pushed into a runoff with Martin. But, according to Bullock, history does not bode well for the incumbent if he cannot secure victory in the regular general election. Bullock cited the state’s 1992 Senate race between Democratic incumbent Wyche Fowler and Republican Paul Coverdell and a public services commissioner race in 2006 as two examples.

“In each instance, it was a Democratic incumbent taken on by a Republican challenger. In each instance, the Democratic incumbent led in the general election and lost in the runoff,” Bullock said.