CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Nov. 3, 2008 – 1:24 a.m.
Too Many Promises Now = More Disappointed Voters Later
By John Bicknell, CQ Staff
In 1963, Adm. Hyman G. Rickover gave President John F. Kennedy a plaque inscribed with what is known as the Breton fisherman’s prayer.
“O God, thy sea is so great and my boat is so small,” the plaque reads, a prayerful reminder that the sea of troubles awaiting the president is all but endless, but the tools at his disposal are limited indeed.
Presidential candidates, unlike actual presidents, tend to see the presidency as a set of problems to be solved and, of course, they are just the person to solve them.
But once they take up residence in the White House, that view is quickly overwhelmed by reality. What was once a checklist becomes a series of interconnected challenges that resist solution. The challenges are, in most cases, insoluble, certainly within a four- or eight-year term, and probably within the lifetimes of the people trying to solve them.
That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t have a go at it. Incremental improvements can mean a lot in the life of the nation.
But after spending two years promising to fix this and repair that, they have created expectations among the citizenry by trying to outbid each other in the promise department.
Barack Obama ’s prediction last summer that under his administration, the rise of the oceans would begin to slow is particularly apt as an example for two reasons. One, it appears he is going to win, which means we’ll soon forget John McCain ’s promises and concentrate on Obama’s. Two, it contrasts starkly with the humility inherent in the Breton fisherman.
Every morning, the fisherman went out in his small boat to face the deep, dark and icy Atlantic. Every day, he had no idea whether he was coming back or not. They were a hardy lot. Had they been promised a calmer sea by a politician, it’s probable they would not have swallowed such a canard. But, just in case, they might have voted for him anyway.
So now comes President Obama, with promises of healing the planet, universal health care, jobs for the jobless, energy independence, lower taxes, expanding educational opportunities and a safer world for America.
It will not, it cannot, all happen. Obama knows this, we assume, but in the frenzy of the campaign, it is believed to be necessary to one-up the opponent not just in votes, but in rewards for the voters.
Calmer seas. More fish. Stronger nets. A flounder in every pot and two skiffs in every garage.
Then, reality. There aren’t quite as many fish as we thought there were. The old boat needs some repairs, so we can’t get everybody those new nets just yet. How about some canned tuna rather than fresh flounder?
And there will be a storm, unforeseen, that will threaten to sink the next administration altogether. There always is.
Too Many Promises Now = More Disappointed Voters Later
It’s hard to say anymore whether over-promising creates such expectations in the voter that failing to deliver can cost the promiser-in-chief at the polls the next time out. I believe it still can, but we might have grown so cynical as a people that we apply the politician discount to every utterance when it’s made, then think no more about it.
Certainly, there is a statute of limitations for presidents on blaming the man he replaced. Obama gets about a year, I think, to argue that President Bush left things in such a mess that the current problems are not of his making. After that, just as the 2010 congressional campaign begins, he takes ownership of the mess, whether he made it or not.
I don’t have a statistical analysis that proves these two presidential candidates promised more than others before them. In sheer numbers of promises, they probably didn’t. But in the audacity of their promises — particularly in light of current economic and world conditions — it certainly feels like they have raised expectations to new heights.
Two years from now, four years from now, there are going to be tens of millions of extremely disappointed voters crashing from those heights, because they have expectations that simply cannot be met.
Kennedy kept Rickover’s gift on his desk in the Oval Office, and it is now part of a display at the JFK Library in Boston, a place that reminds us that in the two years and 10 months of his presidency, he achieved many things and failed on some others. But few of the “problems” Kennedy foresaw as a candidate in 1960 were solved. And neither have they been “solved” in the 45 years since Kennedy’s death.
Maybe the promise is sufficient.
Tuesday’s winner will put that idea to the test, and we will see how he fares for the next four years in his skiff made of hope.
John Bicknell can be reached at jbicknell@cq.com.




Comments
WHY can't it all happen??? Look, there are resources a-plenty in this country, and much of what this writer claims is fantastical dreaming is in fact very achievable if we really want to make it happen--and, as Obama has said, if the public is willing to sacrifice a bit. Eight years ago, if you'd said that 2 elections would be stolen and that we'd invade a country based on a rumor that MAYBE they had weapons of mass destruction, and that the entire U.S. financial system would collapse, and that a major U.S. city would be left to drown in it's own death and misery with no real disaster relief, the response would have been, "It can not, it WILL not happen". Well, guess what? It did. And if you'd said that the United States would be attacked by plane hijackers with box cutters and that the WTC would fall? Right. You'd have said it couldn't happen. But it did. So if horrible things that seem impossible can happen, then why the hell can't positive ones? Like, for example, an African American president who was a total unknown before he ran for president, which is also something people would have believed impossible just a few years ago. I'm sick to death of the use of this defeatist attitude as a way of blocking any real progressive change from happening. Oh, we can't withdraw from Iraq because there's too much sectarian violence, so we'll just stay there for the next 100 years! Oh, we can't house homeless people because they (supposedly) have too many other problems that go beyond mere material needs, so we'll just leave them on the streets! Oh, we can't end starvation in the developing world because they have corrupt govts that won't distribute the food, so we'll just leave them to starve--and so on and so on and so on. What really makes it possible is the will to do it, and that all depends on how much people want to make these things a reality. A new website, www.perspctv.com, http://www.perspctv.com is measuring the amount that the media and individual people alike are starting to discuss these issues that Obama is inspiring them to care about. It tracks how many times a name or an issue is mentioned in both the news media and in the blogosphere. Up till now they've been measuring the buzz surrounding the candidates, but after tomorrow, the focus will switch to issues, and then we'll see how much America cares to work with Mr. Obama to accomplish these lofty goals. Let's never forget that at one stage people thought that women would never get the vote and slavery was here to stay too, folks. Maybe it's time to dream a little bigger and open our narrow eyes a little wider.
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