What the Presidential Polls Say About the States in Play

Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair. No clear favorite.

Georgia

McCain is leading Obama 50 percent to 48 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 1 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 2. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. PPP says Obama is polling just short of 30 percent with white voters, “a threshold he would like to cross if he were to get over the top in the state.” A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 2 has McCain ahead 52 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing “other” and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 28-30 had McCain ahead 47 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent choosing “other” and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points.

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23-28 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 47 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 30 has McCain ahead 52 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 points. McCain’s favorable to unfavorable ratio was 57 percent to 43 percent while Obama’s is 50 percent to 49 percent. Voters trust McCain more than Obama by 7 points on the economy and by 12 points on national security, gains for him on both those issues since the last poll.

A Strategic Vision poll conducted Oct. 20-22 has McCain ahead 51 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. McCain’s favorable to unfavorable ratio is 49 percent to 37 percent while Obama’s is 48 percent to 39 percent. McCain leads by 3 points on who voters think would better handle the economy and by 14 points on who would best handle Iraq.

The only time in the last five elections that Republicans have not won this state was in 1992 when Bill Clinton eked out a victory by less than a point, thanks to the competition George Bush got from independent Ross Perot. Leans Republican.

Indiana

Obama is statistically tied with McCain at 49 percent to 48 percent with 3 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 2. The margin of error is 1.9 percent. Obama is being helped by a 17 percent lead among independents who make up about a fifth of the sample. An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 28-31 had McCain and Obama tied at 48 percent each with 1 percent choosing “other” and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama led among independents (26 percent of the sample) by 8 points. McCain was 10 points ahead among men and Obama is 10 points ahead among women.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 27-29 for the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics had McCain and Obama tied at 47 percent each with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, 1 percent choosing “other” and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.3 percent. Voters favored Obama on the issue of the economy by 8 points, and by wide margins on the environment, health care, Iraq and education. McCain led by wide margins on terrorism and immigration. However, after the economy, cited as the top issue by 58 percent, and terrorism, cited by 10 percent, all other issues were in the single digits.

A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 29 had McCain ahead 49 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent choosing “other” and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 points. McCain’s favorable to unfavorable numbers were 57 percent to 40 percent while Obama’s were 49 percent to 48 percent. Voters trusted McCain more to handle the economy by 3 points and national security by 14 points. An Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll conducted Oct. 26-28 has Obama statistically tied with McCain at 45.9 percent to 45.3 percent. The margin of error is 4 points. One in five voters say they could still change their minds. Obama is getting more than twice as much support as McCain among the 525,000 new voters signed up since 2006. Mccain leads among white voters as does Obama among blacks, and pollster Ann Selzer says, “This race is really in the hands of your African-American community.”

A Howey/Gauge poll conducted Oct. 23-24 had McCain leading Obama 47 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error was 4.1 percent. This poll said 32 percent of voters who backed Hillary Clinton in the state’s primary were supporting McCain. McCain led among white voters by 53 percent to 39 percent and Howey/Gauge says if “Obama can bring his white voter support up into the mid-40s, it could be a path to victory.” A Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Oct. 23-26 had McCain ahead 50.2 percent to 44 percent with 5.8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 points. McCain had a 15 point lead among independents.

Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections, and the only year where their margin of victory was less than 15 points was 1996 when independent Ross Perot got 10 percent of the vote. No Clear Favorite.

Missouri

What the Presidential Polls Say About the States in Play

McCain and Obama are tied at 48 percent each with 2 percent choosing “other” and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 2. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. McCain is leading by 10 points among independents who make up 25 percent of the sample. He leads by 10 points among white voters (87 percent of the sample) while Obama leads by 72 points among blacks (10 percent of the sample).

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 2 had Obama ahead by a bare 49.4 percent to 48.6 percent with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.7 percent. “There’s nowhere we’ve found a closer race than Missouri,” says PPP’s Dean Debnam. Obama is offsetting a 12 point deficit among white voters (83.4 percent of the sample) with his 93 percent to 7 percent lead among blacks (13.3 percent among blacks). The two are tied among independents. A NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll published Nov. 2 had McCain ahead 47 percent to 46 percent.

An InsiderAdvantage/Politico poll conducted Oct. 29 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 47 percent. InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery said Obama was taking a lower-than-usual percentage of black voters — 65 percent. A Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Oct. 23-26 had Obama ahead 48.2 percent to 45.7 percent with 6.2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 points. McCain led by 11 and 10 points respectively among white voters and those over 65 while Obama led by 12 points among independents.

A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 26 had Obama ahead 48 percent to 47 percent, with 2 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. That’s a gain of 4 points from McCain since last week. Obama’s favorable to unfavorable ratio is 53 percent to 47 percent while McCain’s is 57 percent to 40 percent. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy by 2 points, down from 7 points last week, and McCain on national security by 11 points, up from 7 points last week. The two are essentially tied among unaffiliated voters among whom Obama last week had a 14 point lead.

Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992. No Clear Favorite.

Montana

Obama is statistically tied with McCain at 48 percent to 47 percent with 4 percent for Ron Paul and 1 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 2. The margin of error is 1.9 percent. Paul is drawing equally from Democrats and Republicans, getting 2 percent from each and 9 percent from independents. Obama has an 8 point lead among independents and 7 points with voters under 30. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 28-30 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent choosing “other” and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.

A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 29 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent choosing “other” and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain’s favorable to unfavorable ratio was 53 percent to 45 percent while Obama was seen unfavorably by 50 percent and favorably by 49 percent. The two were statistically tied on who voters trusted more to handle the economy while McCain led by 6 points on national security. An NBC/Mason-Dixon poll published Oct. 28 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 44 percent.

This is a state the Republicans have carried in all the last five elections except 1992 when Independent Ross Perot spoiled things for the first George Bush. No Clear Favorite.

Nevada

Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 47 percent with 2 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 2. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. Seventy-one percent of voters say they have voted at an early voting site or cast an absentee ballot, and Obama leads by 14 points among them. “The lead Obama has been able to build up among early voters in the state is virtually insurmountable,” said PPP’s Dean Debnam.

A NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll published Nov. 2 shows Obama leading McCain 47 percent to 43 percent. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23-28 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 45 percent among likely voters with 2 percent saying “neither” and 1 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error was 4 point. Among all registered voters, Obama’s margin was 52 percent to 45 percent. An Associated Press/GfK poll conducted Oct. 22-26 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 42 percent among likely voters with 1 percent each for Libertarian Bob Barr and Ralph Nader and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent.

Nevadans trusted Obama more to handle the economy by 16 points and by 13 points on managing the financial crisis. They named Obama by 20 points over McCain as the candidate who understood how the financial crisis was affecting Americans. They gave Obama a 4 point edge on national security issues. Fifty-one percent said Obama has kept his pledge to run a positive campaign 72 percent said McCain has not. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 27 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama’s favorable to unfavorable ratio was 51 percent to 48 percent while McCain’s was 53 percent to 45 percent. The two are statistically tied on who voters trusted more on the economy and McCain led by 10 points on national security issues. A Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Oct. 23-26 had Obama ahead 48.2 percent to 44 percent with 7.8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 points. Obama led by 10 points among women and 14 points among independents while McCain had leads of 10 points and 11 points respectively among white voters and those over 65.

What the Presidential Polls Say About the States in Play

Republicans have won three of the last five elections here although each one since 1996 has been decided by four points or less. Leans Democratic.

North Carolina

Obama is deadlocked with McCain at 50 percent to 49 percent with 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 1 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 2. The margin of error is 2.1 percent. A NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll published Nov. 2 had McCain ahead 49 percent to 46 percent. Obama’s lead among independents has slipped from 12 points in PPP’s last poll to 4 points. An Elon University poll conducted Oct. 27-30 had Obama ahead 45 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. Sixty-three percent cited the economy as the top issue and they favored the Democrats by 8 points. Forty-nine percent blamed the Republicans for the current state of the economy. They said Obama would do a better job managing the economy than McCain by 10 points.

An InsiderAdvantage/Politico poll conducted Oct. 29 had Obama and McCain tied at 48 percent each with 3 percent undecided. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 29 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 50 percent to 48 percent with 1 percent choosing “other” and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama’s favorable to unfavorable ratio was 53 percent to 46 percent while McCain’s was 56 percent to 43 percent. The two were statistically tied on who voters trusted more to handle the economy while McCain had a 6 point lead when it comes to national security. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23-28 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 46 percent among likely voters with 1 percent choosing “neither.” The margin of error was 4 points. Among all registered voters, Obama’s margin was 50 percent to 47 percent.

An Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Oct. 23-27 had Obama leading 47 percent to 43 percent among registered voters with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.9 percent. Voters trusted Obama more to handle the current financial crisis by 9 points and was statistically tied with McCain on who is more prepared to lead the country. Voters said Obama better understands their needs and priorities by 16 points and they said Obama more than McCain had the personal skills and qualities to succeed as President by 11 points.

An Associated Press/GfK poll conducted Oct. 22-26 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 48 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error was 4 percent. Voters trusted Obama more to improve the economy by 6 points and to handle the financial crisis by 6 points. They said by 13 points Obama better understands how the financial crisis is affecting Americans. They gave McCain a 5 point edge on national security issues. Fifty-six percent said Obama has kept his pledge to run a positive campaign while 61 percent said McCain has not. An NBC/Mason-Dixon poll published Oct. 28 had Obama and McCain are tied at 47 percent. A Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Oct. 23-26 had Obama ahead 49.7 percent to 46.4 percent with 3.9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 points. Independents favored Obama by 21 points. McCain led by 27 points among whites so “African-American turnout may decide who squeaks by,” Zogby said.

Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections. No Clear Favorite.

North Dakota

What is going on in this traditional Republican stronghold? McCain is tied with Obama at 45 percent each with 3 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15. Obama leads by 7 points among independents who comprise 30 percent of the sample. A Minnesota State University survey conducted Oct. 6-8Obama is leading McCain in this traditionally Republican state by 45 percent to 43 percent. Obama has eaten into McCain’s once comfortable lead because of the economy, an issue on which voters favored him 49 percent to 38 percent. The poll also said, “McCain has failed to solidify his hold on the GOP base in North Dakota, where he has the support of just 73 percent of voters identifying themselves as strong Republicans.”

In the state’s February caucuses, Mitt Romney beat McCain and McCain barely finished ahead of Ron Paul . North Dakota has gone Republican in the last 10 elections and George Bush carried the state by 27 points in 2000 and 2004. No Clear Favorite.

Ohio

Obama is leading McCain 50 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 27-Nov. 2. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 2 has Obama leading 48 percent to 46 percent with 3 percent choosing other and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. McCain has an 8 point edge among white voters (87 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 88 percent to 10 percent among blacks (10 percent of the sample). Obama leads by 8 points among independents. The margin of error is 2.5 percent. “Sen. Obama’s Ohio lead is based on his ability to be competitive among whites, even those without college degrees. He also is keeping Sen. McCain almost 15 points below the level of support among white evangelical Christians that President Bush received four years ago,” said Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown.

A University of Cincinnati poll conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 2 had Obama leading 51.5 percent to 45.7 percent among likely voters with 2.8 percent preferring other or undecided. The margin of error is 2.7 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 2 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 48 percent among likely voters with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. While Obama’s standing has held pretty much the same since the last PPP poll, Obama has lost ground among white voters and undecided independents. A Columbus Dispatch poll conducted Oct. 22-31 has Obama leading 52 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 2.1 points. Obama leads by 3-to-1 among voters casting a ballot for the first time this year. That contrasts a NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll also published Nov. 2 that had McCain is leading 47 percent to 45 percent.

What the Presidential Polls Say About the States in Play

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23-28 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 47 percent among likely voters with 1 percent choosing neither, 1 percent choosing “other” and 1 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error was 3 percent. Among all registered voters, Obama led 53 percent to 43 percent. An Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Oct. 23-27 has Obama ahead 48 percent to 41 percent among registered voters with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. Voters trust Obama more to handle the current financial crisis by 7 points and while McCain leads by 5 points on who is more prepared to lead the country. Voters say Obama better understands their needs and priorities by 18 points and they say Obama more than McCain has the personal skills and qualities to succeed as President by 11 points.

Republicans have won Ohio in three of the last five elections, but the margin of victory in 2000 and 2004 was 2.5 percent or less. Leans Democratic.

Virginia

Obama is leading McCain 50 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent choosing “other” and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 1. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. McCain has rebuilt his lead among white voters (72 percent of the sample) to 17 points after seeing Obama narrow the Republican’s post-convention 22 point advantage to as little as 9 points when the financial crisis hit. Obama leads 88 percent to 10 percent among blacks who make up 18 percent of the sample. A NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll published Nov. 2 has Obama is leading McCain 47 percent to 44 percent. A Marist University poll conducted Oct. 26-27 had Obama leading 51 percent to 47 percent among likely voters with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. Among all registered voters, Obama’s margin was 49 percent to 43 percent. Obama’s favorable to unfavorable ratio is 61 percent to 35 percent while McCain’s was 54 percent to 39 percent.

An Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Oct. 23-27 has Obama ahead 48 percent to 44 percent among registered voters with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. Voters trust Obama more to handle the current financial crisis by 7 points and is statistically tied with McCain on who is more prepared to lead the country. Voters say Obama better understands their needs and priorities by 16 points and they say Obama more than McCain has the personal skills and qualities to succeed as President by 9 points.

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23-28 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 44 percent. An Associated Press/GfK poll conducted Oct. 22-26 has Obama leading 49 percent to 42 percent with 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Voters trust Obama more to improve the economy by 13 points and to handle the financial crisis by 10 points. They say by 17 points that he better understands how the financial crisis is affecting Americans. The two are roughly tied on national security issues. Fifty-four percent say Obama has kept his promise to run a positive campaign while 65 percent say McCain has not.

A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll had Obama leading 51 percent to 47 percent with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Obama and McCain had the same favorable to unfavorable ratio: 55 percent to 44 percent. Voters trusted Obama more to handle the economy by 5 points and McCain to better handle national security by 1 point. A Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Oct. 22-25 has Obama ahead 52 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 points. Late last month, Obama’s margin was 3 points. Obama leads by 23 points when it comes to who voters think better understand their financial problems and by 15 points in this tax-conscious state on who they trust more on tax policy. Voters are evenly split between the two on handling Iraq and terrorism.

A Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Oct. 23-26 has Obama leading 52 percent to 44.8 percent with 3.2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.1 points. Obama is riding a lead of more than 20 points northern Virginia, a suburb of Washington D.C. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 25-26 has Obama ahead 52 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. Some of the biggest margins in Obama’s favor include a 13 point lead among women and a 26 point lead among voters under 34 (a quarter of the sample). McCain leads 53 percent to 42 percent among white voters (74 percent of the sample) but Obama leads 86 percent to 13 percent among blacks (18 percent of the sample). Obama had led by 6 in SurveyUSA’s Oct. 18-19 poll.

Republicans won the last five presidential elections here. A Democratic nominee has not carried this state. since 1964. CQ Politics rates this race Leans Democratic.

West Virginia

McCain is leading Obama 55 percent to 42 percent with 3 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 29-30. The margin of error is 2.1 percent. PPP says, “Obama was never going to have a very good chance of winning the state if he couldn’t improve his standing with Democratic voters, and in this survey he leads only 65-31 with them. McCain is receiving 90 percent support from his party, and also leading 53-39 with independent voters.” A Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Oct. 23-26 had McCain ahead 50.3 percent to 40.4 percent with 9.3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 points. McCain was winning 28 percent of Democrats and led 16 points among independents.

A Wesleyan College poll conducted Oct. 20-21 had McCain ahead 49.2 percent to 43.5 percent with 4.3 percent saying they would vote for neither and 3 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 points. That was a 5 point gain for Obama since last month. Wesleyan said, “Race remains a key factor in voting preferences. Like the earlier survey, 15.2 percent of the respondents report that race is very or somewhat important in playing a part as to whom to support for President.”

Republicans won here in 2000 and 2004 while Democrats carried the state in the three elections before that. Leans Republican.