Battle for the Senate: What the Polls Say About the Races in Play

CQ Politics rates this race Leans Republican.

Louisiana

Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu, seeking a third term, is leading Republican challenger John Kennedy 53.2 percent to 33.9 percent with 1.4 percent preferring someone else and 8.7 percent undecided in a Southeastern Louisiana university poll conducted Oct. 20-23. The margin of error is 4.46 percent. While John McCain is running about 12 points ahead of Barack Obama , his “coattails” do not appear to be helping Kennedy. Kennedy has a 6 point lead among white voters while Landrieu leads 83.3 percent to 7.1 percent among blacks. Landrieu leads among independents and has made what the poll calls “significant headway” with Republicans. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 25 had Landrieu ahead 54 percent to 41 with 2 percent choosing “other” and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.

CQ Politics rates this race Leans Democratic.

Maine

Republican Sen. Susan Collins is leading Rep. Tom Allen 57 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Nov. 1. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Collins’ favorable to unfavorable ratio is 69 percent to 30 percent while Allen’s is 51 percent to 46 percent. A Critical Insights poll conducted Oct. 16-19 had Collins ahead 54 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.7 percent. Collins got 85 percent support from her own party and 19 percent from Democrats while Allen drew 74 percent from Democrats. Collins leads among independents by 21 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 19-20 had Collins ahead 54 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Collins led among independents, 32 percent of the sample, by 14 points.

CQ Politics rates this race Leans Republican.

Minnesota

In this back-and-forth race, Republican first-termer Norm Coleman is leading Democrat Al Franken 44 percent to 39 percent with 16 percent for Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley and 1 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 30 - Nov. 1. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. Coleman has a 13 point lead among men and 7 point lead among white voters. Barkley is drawing 15 percent of Democrats and 8 percent of Republicans which further complicates the outlook for Franken because he gets 9 points less support than Coleman does from their respective parties.

A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 27-29, 43 percent to 40 percent with 15 percent for Barkley and 2 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 4 points. This is clearly a race where voters are trying to make up their minds between candidates they don’t particularly like. Coleman is seen unfavorably by 51 percent of voters while 46 percent see him favorably. Franken is seen unfavorably by 52 percent to 45 percent. Coleman gets 89 percent support from Republicans while Franken only gets 74 percent. Barkley is drawing 13 percent of Democratic voters and 6 percent of Republicans. Coleman leads among independents with 41 percent, followed by Franken at 30 percent and Barkley at 28 percent.

A Minnesota Public Radio/Humphrey Institute poll conducted Oct. 24-28 had Franken ahead 43 percent to 41 percent with 37 percent with 17 percent for Barkley and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.6 points. The economy almost entirely eclipsed all other issues and Franken had a 12 point advantage there. Coleman was paying the Republican price of voters’ deep-seated disaffection for President Bush and his policies and had seen disapproval of his performance rise to 49 percent. Coleman’s negative ad campaign was also backfiring with voters seeing him as more negative than Franken by 41 percent to 26 percent. Barkley was drawing about 15 percent of Republicans and Democrats to his banner, although this appears to hurt Coleman more because of the growth in the number of Democrats. But Barkley also hurt Franken by taking about a third of independents.

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 28-30 has Franken leading 45 percent to 40 percent with 14 percent for Barkley and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 percent. Obama leads in every demographic group tracked in this poll and gets twice as many Republican votes (12 percent) than McCain gets from Democrats (6 percent). Obama leads by 18 points among independents who make up 29 percent of the sample. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 28 had Coleman leading Franken 43 percent to 39 percent with 14 percent for Barkley and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Coleman’s favorable to unfavorable ratio was 51 percent to 48 percent, Franken is viewed unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 47 percent and Barkley was viewed favorably by 53 percent to 33 percent.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 16-18 had Coleman leading 41 percent to 39 percent with 18 percent for Barkley and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. A Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post poll conducted Oct. 8-12 also had the race a statistical tie, with Coleman leading 39 percent to 37 percent with 17 percent for Barkley and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.1 percent.

Battle for the Senate: What the Polls Say About the Races in Play

CQ Politics rates this race No Clear Favorite.

Mississippi

Roger Wicker , appointed to fill out the term of retired Sen. Trent Lott , has jumped out to 54 percent to 43 percent lead over former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, with 1 percent choosing “other” and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 27. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Wicker’s favorable to unfavorable ratio is 59 percent to 36 percent while Musgrove is viewed unfavorably by 50 percent and favorably by 47 percent. Wicker has increased his lead among unaffiliated voters from 12 points in September to 66 percent to 19 percent.

A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15 had the two statistically tied, with Wicker leading 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Wicker had led in this poll in early September by 5 points. Wicker’s favorable to unfavorable ratio was 54 percent to 42 percent while Musgrove’s was 52 percent to 43 percent. Wicker led 72 percent to 24 percent among white voters (62 percent of the sample) while Musgrove led among black voters (37 percent of the sample) 83 percent to 5 percent. The pollster said “Musgrove is in better shape” than he might have been because he has in fact been able to garner that much of the white vote. Thad Cochran , seeking a sixth term, was way out in front in his race against former state legislator Erik Fleming 59 percent to 32 percent in Rasmussen’s June poll.

CQ Politics rates Cochran’s race Safe Republican and the Wicker-Musgrove contest as Leans Republican.

New Hampshire

Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, the former governor, leads Republican incumbent John Sununu 48 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 9 percent undecided in a WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll conducted Oct. 30-Nov.2. The margin of error is 3.4 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 28-30 had Shaheen leading 52 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Ken Blevens. The margin of error was 4 percent.

A Rasmussen Reports poll published Oct. 31 had Shaheen ahead 52 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent choosing “other” and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Shaheen’s favorable to unfavorable ratio is 55 percent to 43 percent while Sununu’s is 51 percent to 46 percent. Shaheen leads by 12 points among unaffiliated voters and by 22 points among women. An Associated Press/GfK poll conducted Oct.22-26 had Shaheen leading 47 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent for Blevens and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent.

A Boston Globe poll conducted Oct. 18-22 had Shaheen ahead 49 percent to 36 with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 points. The Globe said Shaheen “is leading in every income level and in every age group but those 65 and older. She also leads everywhere in the state except for the more conservative areas on the Massachusetts border, where Sununu has a 2-point advantage.”

An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 6-8 had Shaheen ahead 42 percent with 7 percent undecided, The margin of error was 4 points. This poll did not include Blevens. Shaheen has a 20 point lead among unaffiliated voters. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 4-5 had Shaheen ahead 48 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent for Blevens and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. The pollster said Blevens appeared to be drawing votes away from Sununu. Shaheen had a 17 point lead among women and statistically significant leads among all age groups except the 35 to 49 set.

CQ Politics rates this race Leans Democratic.

North Carolina

Democratic challenger Kay Hagan is leading Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole 51 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Christopher Cole and 1 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 31- Nov. 2. The margin of error is 2.1 percent. PPP says Dole’s efforts in TV ads to link Hagan to “Godless Americans” has “clearly blown up in her face.” An Elon University poll conducted Oct. 27-30 had Hagan ahead 44 percent to 37 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. “As the economy dominates the news, it appears to be benefiting Democratic candidates,” said Hunter Bacot, director of the Elon University Poll. “The other side of this equation is that citizens are holding the Republicans accountable for the state of the economy.”

Battle for the Senate: What the Polls Say About the Races in Play

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll Oct. 23-28 had Hagan ahead 53 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. Polling Director Keating Holland said one factor that may be at work is Dole’s age (72). A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 29 had Hagan ahead 52 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent for Cole and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Hagan’s favorable to unfavorable ratio was 53 percent to 42 percent while Dole was now seen unfavorably by 50 percent and favorably by 46 percent. An Associated Press/GfK poll conducted Oct.22-26 had Hagan ahead 47 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent for Cole and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent.

CQ Politics rates the race Leans Democratic.

Oregon

Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley, the speaker of the state House, is leading two-term Republican Gordon Smith 48 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent choosing “other” and 5 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 27-29. The margin of error is 4 points. Merkley’s favorable to unfavorable ratio is 48 percent to 42 percent while Smith is seen unfavorably by 49 percent and favorably by 42 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 28-30 had Merkley leading 51 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent for Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.6 percent. PPP said, “Merkley is continuing to expand his lead in his quest to defeat Smith ... He has a 59-37 advantage with those who have already voted and he’s winning 45-39 with independents. This race has been universally headed in Merkley’s direction for weeks now and it’s probably too late for Smith to turn it around.”

A Rasmussen Reports poll published Oct. 30 had Merkley ahead 49 percent to 46 percent with 4 percent choosing “other” and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Smith’s favorable to unfavorable ratio is 50 percent to 49 percent while Merkley’s is 49 percent to 48 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 25-26 had Merkley ahead 49 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent for Brownlow and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. Merkley had a 16 point lead among women and a 22 point lead among voters under 34 who comprised 23 percent of the sample. Merkley led by 6 percent among independents. He drew 12 percent of Republican voters while Smith attracts 17 percent of Democrats. Brownlow takes 5 percent from the Republicans and 2 percent from the Democrats.

A Riley Research poll conducted Oct. 10-20 had Merkley leading 36 percent to 35 percent with 4 percent for Brownlow and 23 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.39 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15 had Merkley ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was percent. Merkley’s favorable to unfavorable ratio was 47 percent to 43 percent while Smith was seen unfavorably by 47 percent and favorably by 40 percent. The two ran evenly among men but Merkley had a 12 point advantage among women. The poll did not include Brownlow.

CQ Politics rates this race No Clear Favorite.