CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Nov. 4, 2008 – 12:02 a.m.
How Many House and Senate Seats Will the Democrats Gain?
By CQ Staff
We at CQ Politics have changed our final few race ratings for the House of Representatives. As with most of our other changes, the changes are to the advantage of the Democrats.
In Ohio’s 15th District, Democratic county commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy appears to have an edge, against Republican state Sen. Steve Stivers. Stivers, an Iraq War veteran, is one of the better Republican candidate recruits nationwide, and he would probably have an edge over Kilroy in a politically neutral election year. But the Democratic trend this year is strong, and Kilroy’s been helped by a lavish independent expenditure campaign by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
In the adjacent 12th District, which takes in the rest of Columbus and most of that city’s black residents, CQ Politics is assigning a new rating of Republican Favored, indicative of a mildly competitive race. Republican Rep. Pat Tiberi should still handily defeat Democratic challenger David Robinson, who’s raised just $166,000 for his campaign. But Tiberi’s vote share could be held down by a Democratic surge in Ohio’s 12th, which has a large population of black voters (22 percent, the second highest-total of any non-Southern House district held by a Republican). Barack Obama is highly likely to carry this district that backed President Bush by a slender 51 percent to 49 percent margin in 2004.
CQ Politics also is revising the rating, of the race in New Mexico’s 2nd District, where there appears to be No Clear Favorite in an open-seat race between Democrat Harry Teague, a former county commissioner, and Republican Ed Tinsley, a restaurant chain owner. Recent surveys show a very close race between the two candidates, who are vying to succeed three-term Republican Rep. Steve Pearce , a conservative who’s struggling in his race for the Senate.
Here are our most up-to-date scorecards:
House
Current (110th) House: 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 Vacancy
111th House Projections: 242 Democrats, 167 Republicans, 26 No Clear Favorite
CQ Politics editor Bob Benenson predicts that, Democrats are likely to pick up 25 seats in the new Congress. Here is his updated explanation:
“First, CQ Politics now rates Democratic candidates as slightly to strongly favored to win 13 races for seats currently held by Republicans (including 10 of the 19 races in the Leans Democratic category), while just one Democratic seat is rated as leaning Republican. Second, there is a huge mismatch in the No Clear Favorite list, with 20 of the 26 races in that category for Republican seats. And third, there also is an imbalance in the parties’ upset bids: 20 races for Republican seats are rated Leans Republican to 10 races for Democratic seats rated Leans Democratic, and there are 22 Republican seats rated Republican Favored to 19 Democratic seats rated Democrat Favored.”
Senate
Current (110th) Senate: 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, 2 Independents
111th Senate Projections: 55 Democrats, 40 Republicans, 2 Independents, 3 seats No Clear Favorite
How Many House and Senate Seats Will the Democrats Gain?
In the Senate, Benenson predicts that the Democrats will pick up 8 Senate seats currently held by Republicans: Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire, Alaska and North Carolina, plus two from the tossup races in Minnesota, Oregon and Georgia or from the Leans Republican races, in Kentucky, Maine and Mississippi.
Now it’s your turn. Tell us how many seats you predict the Democrats will pick up in the House and Senate. Post a brief comment on CQ Politics. You’ll be able to see what others think and after the election, we’ll be able to see who came closest.
Greg Giroux and Marie Horrigan contributed to this report.
Comments
Barrack Obama get 353 electoral votes, the closest state he carries is NC, McCain holds on in MO and IN. Democrats gain 8 seats in the Senate, in order of margin of victory, VA, CO, NM, NH, OR, AK, NC, and MN. with a run-off in GA likely. Democrats gain 27 seats on the House.
9 in the Senate, with Georgia being the final one in a runoff. Republicans will probably hold Mississippi and Kentucky. In the House, I'm thinking a 32 seat gain, leaving them at 268-167.
demcorats pick up 35 to 50 in house and 9-11 in the senate.obama wins with 55 to 60% and take 350 to 400 electoral votes.
Obama-Biden 52% McCain-Palin 46% Others 2% ELECTORAL VOTES Obama-Biden 319 CA, CO, CT, DE, HI, IL, IA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OH, OR, RI, VT, VA, WA, WI. McCain-Palin 219 AL, AK, AZ, AR, FL, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WVa, WY. **** U.S. SENATE 60 DEMOCRATS 37 REPUBLICANS 2 INDEPENDENTS 1 Run-Off Democrats Pick-Up ALASKA - Mark Begich COLORADO - Mark Udall GEORGIA - Jim Martin leads but advances to a run-off. KENTUCKY - Bruce Lunsford MINNESOTA - Al Franken MISSISSIPPI - Ronnie Musgrove NEW HAMPSHIRE - Jeanne Shaheen NEW MEXICO - Tom Udall NO. CAROLINA - Kay Hagan OREGON - Jeff Merkeley VIRGINIA - Mark Warner **** ALABAMA CD2 - Dem. Pickup (Bobby Bright) CD3 - Dem Pickup (Joshua Segall) * MAJOR UPSET* CD5 - Dem Hold (Parker Griffith) ALASKA CDAL- Dem Pickup (Ethan Berkowitz) ARIZONA CD1 - Dem Pickup (Ann Kirkpatrick) CD3 - Dem Pickup (Bob Lord) ARKANSAS (Local Races) * Joe White defeats Gilbert Baker, 54%-46% * John Edwards closer than expected, tops Kelly Eichler 52%-48% * Buddy Villines crushes Phil Wyrick 56%-44% * Kathy Lewison narrowly defeats Sid Rosenbaum 51%-49% * Patrick Henry Hays leads over Bubba Lloyd in North Little Rock * Lioneld Jordan and Steve Clark in a tight bid for Mayor of Fayetteville * Jason Willett goes into a runoff for Mayor of Jonesboro CALIFORNIA CD4 - Dem Pickup (Charlie Brown) COLORADO CD4 - Dem Pickup (Betsey Markey) CONNECTICUT CD4 - Dem Pickup (Jim Himes) FLORIDA CD16 - Rep. Pickup (Tom Rooney) CD18 - Dem Pickup (Annette Taddeo) CD21 - Dem Pickup (Raul Martinez) CD24 - Dem Pickup (Suzanne Kosmas) CD25 - Dem Pickup (Joe Garcia) IDAHO CD1 - Dem Pickup (Walt Minnick) ILLINOIS CD6 - Dem Pickup (Jill Morgenthaler) CD10 - Dem Pickup (Dan Seals) CD11 - Dem Pickup (Debbie Halvorson) INDIANA CD3 - Dem Pickup (Mike Montagano) CD5 - Dem Pickup (Mary Etta Ruley) * MAJOR UPSET * KENTUCKY CD2 - Dem Pickup (David Boswell) MARYLAND CD1 - Dem Pickup (Frank Kratovil) MICHIGAN CD7 - Dem Pickup (Mark Schauer) CD9 - Dem Pickup (Gary Peters) MINNESOTA CD3 - Dem Pickup (Ashwin Madia) CD6 - Dem Pickup (Elwyn Tinkelberg) MISSOURI CD9 - Dem Pickup (Judy Baker) NEVADA CD2 - Dem Pickup (Jill Derby) *MAJOR UPSET* CD3 - Dem Pickup (Dina Titus) NEW JERSEY CD3 - Dem Pickup (John Adler) CD7 - Dem Pickup (Linda Stender) NEW MEXICO CD1 - Dem Pickup (Martin Heinrich) CD2 - Dem Pickup (Harry Teague) NEW YORK CD13 - Dem Pickup (Mike McMahon) CD25 - Dem Pickup (Dan Maffei) CD29 - Dem Pickup (Eric Massa) NORTH CAROLINA CD8 - Dem Pickup (Larry Kissell) OHIO CD2 - Dem Pickup (Victoria Wulsin) * MAJOR UPSET * CD3 - Dem Pickup (Jane Mitakides) * MAJOR UPSET * CD14 - Dem Pickup (Bill O'Neil) CD15 - Dem Pickup (Mary Jo Kilroy) CD16 - Dem Pickup (John Boccieri) PENNSYLVANIA CD3 - Dem Pickup (Kathy Dahlkemper) CD11 - Rep Pickup (Lou Barletta) SOUTH CAROLINA CD1 - Dem Pickup (Linda Ketner) TEXAS CD7 - Dem Pickup (Michael Skelly) CD22 - Rep. Pickup (Pete Olson) CD23 - Rep. Pickup (Lyle Larson) VIRGINIA CD2 - Dem Pickup (Glenn Nye) CD5 - Dem Pickup (Tom Perriello) * MAJOR UPSET* CD11 - Dem Pickup (Gerry Connolly) WASHINGTON CD8 - Dem Pickup (Darcy Burner) WEST VIRGINIA CD2 - Dem Pickup (Anne Barth) Democrats Score A Net Gain of 44 Additional Seats in the House.
Popular vote: McCain (48%), Obama (50.8%) Electoral College: McCain (212), Obama (326) Senator McCain will carry AL, AK, AZ, AR, FL, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, MT, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, and WY. Senator Obama will carry: CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, IA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, VA, WA, and WI. HOUSE: Democrats net twenty-four (24) seats. The final split is 175 Rs and 260 Ds. SENATE: Democrats net six (6) seats (AK, CO, NH, NM, OR, and VA) The final split: 43 Rs, 55 Ds and 2 Independents. GOVERNORS: Democrats net 1 Governor (MO). The final split: 21 Rs, 29 Ds.
party switch ak - begich co - udall mn - franken nc - hagan nh - shaheen nm - udall or - merkley va - warner no party switch al - sessions ar - pryor de - biden ga - chambliss ia - harkin id - risch il - durbin ks - roberts ky - mcconnell la - landrieu ma - kerry me - collins mi - levin ms - cochran ms - wicker mt - baucus ne - johanns nj - lautenberg ok - inhofe ri - reed sc - graham sd - johnson tn - alexander tx - cornyn wv - rockefeller wy - barrasso wy - enzi
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