Expectations Weigh Heavily on Democratic Majority

And it is likely that Obama and Congress will try to deliver on organized labor’s top priority: legislation that would facilitate private-sector union organization efforts by allowing employees to form a union by signing up, rather than through secret-ballot elections.

Beyond that, Obama’s supporters in Congress expect that he will press for quick action on his tax proposal. The centerpiece is his plan to cut income taxes on all filers earning less than $250,000 a year.

“He needs to deliver on middle-class tax cuts,” said Scott Lilly, a former House Appropriations staff director who is an analyst at the Center for American Progress Action Fund. “We want to find ways to put money into consumers’ pockets, and that’s a sure way.”

In recent weeks, as the credit crisis slammed the economy, Obama unveiled a program to deal with the situation. Among his proposals were a temporary tax credit for companies that hire workers, a temporary waiver to allow people to withdraw money from their retirement accounts without penalty, a 90-day moratorium on mortgage foreclosures, and a loan program for states and cities.

Coupled with that, Democrats in Congress and Obama have started moving toward a new regulatory framework for the financial industry. They have not spelled out details, but their aim is to restore the public’s long-term confidence in the markets.

Obama may also want quick action on at least part of his sweeping energy plan, which according to his campaign Web site would provide an economic stimulus by creating “5 million new jobs by strategically investing $150 billion over the next 10 years to catalyze private efforts to build a clean energy future.”

Congressional Democrats made it clear they want to enact a renewable-electricity standard, another idea that stalled in the 110th, and combat global warming by “implementing an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050,” according to the Obama platform.

The president-elect has also targeted for action such things as immigration overhaul, more financial aid for college students, a new federal ethics code, more education funding and a revamping of the education law known as No Child Left Behind.

In foreign affairs, Obama plans to move ahead with his 16-month withdrawal plan from Iraq and transfer some American firepower to Afghanistan, which he says is again becoming a haven for terrorists.

Teamwork Necessary to Take Advantage of First Year

It all adds up to a legislative package that even a new president with a mandate and a Congress solidly behind him will have a tough time enacting in a period of economic turmoil.

If Obama and Democratic leaders feel the Senate will be reluctant to go along with their spending or taxation plans, they may try to advance the legislation by using the budget reconciliation process, which can provide protection from filibusters.

Departing Members of the 110th Congress: Click Here to View Chart

Expectations Weigh Heavily on Democratic Majority

American University political scientist James Thurber says Obama has little time to spare. “I’m skeptical of mandates coming out of elections,” Thurber said. “Yet you need to move quickly. You need to decide what promises are really important.”

Gary Andres, who was congressional liaison for President George Bush, said 2009 will be Obama’s best opportunity to make his legislative mark. “The president’s period of time of peak productivity with Congress is in his first year of office,” Andres said.

In formulating a workable agenda, Obama has an advantage, said Michael Mezey of DePaul University, because the public realizes what he’s up against. “A Democratic president confronts a large budget deficit, a recession, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, budgetary time bombs in Medicare and Social Security, Bush tax cuts coming off the books in a few years, and his own promise to cut taxes for a large number of people. We all know he can’t solve all those things,” Mezey said.

The Democrats know their key constituencies will swallow only so much disappointment. These include such disparate groups as mayors who want Obama to push an urban agenda, environmentalists whose to-do list includes reinstating the federal moratorium on most offshore drilling, and a host of others who have chafed under the eight years of the Bush administration.

“There is no doubt that this fiscal crisis and the need to try to jump in with taxpayer dollars to help resuscitate the economy will crowd out or delay many essential activities,” said Rep. Xavier Becerra , D-Calif., who is Pelosi’s designated assistant in the leadership. “It’s up to the new president to tell us where his priorities lie.”

Obama will spell out those priorities in conjunction with Congress’ top Democrats, especially Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, and Richard J. Durbin , who is Reid’s deputy, Illinois’ senior senator and an Obama mentor, congressional leaders say.

“The relationship is close,” House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer said. “The Speaker and Obama speak on a regular basis. He and I talk often as well. My chief of staff and Obama’s liaison to Congress, Phil Schiliro, talk all the time, and my chief of staff and Obama’s chief of staff talk regularly. We talk about both politics and policy, and I believe our close relationship will yield productive results.”

And now that Rep. Rahm Emanuel , D-Ill., is apparently moving from the House leadership to the post of White House chief of staff, the relationship could become even closer.

Obama has named Schiliro his transition team’s liaison to Congress. The longtime top aide to Rep. Henry A. Waxman , D-Calif., is a popular choice among Democrats. He once worked for former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D. (House 1979-87; Senate 1987-2005), who is also expected to play a key role in the new administration.

Hot-Button Issues May Get Pushed Aside

During the campaign, Republicans led by presidential nominee John McCain warned about the dangers of giving Democrats control of Congress and the White House, saying Obama, Pelosi and Reid would rush to impose a liberal agenda, including higher taxes and more spending.

But after Democrats took over the House following the 2006 elections, Pelosi demonstrated her determination to protect members from moderate to conservative areas from GOP attacks. That meant no votes on such hot-button social issues as gun control or abortion rights and adherence to the pay-as-you-go rules pushed by “Blue Dog” Democrats, the party’s leading deficit hawks.

With even more new Democratic lawmakers representing GOP-leaning districts, Pelosi may be just as wary of forcing members into votes that could cost them their seats in 2010.

Expectations Weigh Heavily on Democratic Majority

“The Democrats have been in the wilderness for eight years, and they’ll have all kinds of ideas they will want to get accomplished,” said Patrick Griffin, who was President Bill Clinton’s congressional liaison. But he said that while Obama needs to work with Congress on an agenda, he should not expect unity and should be ready to take on the congressional wing of his party. “Don’t be afraid to fight them, but don’t be surprised when you lose,” Griffin said.

A Historic Victory

The scope of the Democrats’ presidential and congressional victories was historic on several counts.

In addition to electing the first black president, the Democrats gained at least 19 House seats and five in the Senate, a gain that edged the party close to the 60-vote threshold needed to cut off minority filibusters. Races in both houses remain undecided.

Only twice in the 20th century did parties score such big back-to-back wins in both houses. The Democrats did it in 1930 and 1932, and the Republicans did it in 1950 and 1952.

The Obama victory brings to the White House a president whose sole Washington experience is four years in Congress. He will be the first sitting member of Congress elected president since Sen. John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts won in 1960. And Obama and running mate Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware are the first senatorial pair elected president and vice president since Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson of Texas did it in 1960. Obama, who lives in the Hyde Park neighborhood on Chicago’s South Side, is also the first president elected from a big city since Kennedy of Boston.

Obama’s win with about 52 percent of the vote is the first time the Democratic presidential candidate has won a majority of the nation’s popular vote since Jimmy Carter of Georgia barely crossed that threshold with 50.1 percent in 1976.

Leadership Challenges Ahead for House GOP

For Republicans, the dismal election results were hardly a surprise. Polls suggested for months that the party, weighed down by economic malaise and Bush’s unpopularity as his second term waned, should brace for a drubbing.

The House GOP’s latest losses make it likely the leadership will be shuffled, with Minority Leader John A. Boehner ’s job possibly on the line as members assign blame and seek a way forward in a time when voters have turned away from the party’s conservative philosophy. In a letter to House Republicans on Wednesday morning, Boehner opened his campaign to keep his post in the 111th.

But Republican Conference Chairman Adam H. Putnam of Florida said he is stepping down, and Jeff Flake , R-Ariz., said it’s time for a shake-up in the House GOP leadership.

“Leadership fights are almost inevitable,” said former GOP strategist Dan Schnur, now director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California. He said the fight is not just over blame; it’s over ideology between true-blue free-market Republicans and those who supported a broader government role such as the Bush-proposed intervention aimed at propping up the nation’s banking and mortgage lending industries.

Expectations Weigh Heavily on Democratic Majority

“You saw the party’s fault lines re-emerging in September’s debate over the $700 billion financial bailout. These fault lines will become even more apparent as the Congress prepares to come back in January,” Schnur said.

Senate Republicans seem less restive. The re-election of Minority Leader Mitch McConnell , R-Ky., means the party probably will avoid a leadership fight.

Republicans say Obama and the Democratic 110th Congress have already hamstrung the economy by failing to extend the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts. And they say any tax increase now, even on only the wealthiest Americans, would be counterproductive.

“The last thing Congress ought to be doing now under any economic doctrine is raising taxes, yet that is just what this Democratic majority is doing,” said Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, the top Republican on the House Budget Committee. “We need policies that grow the economy.”

Thurber said that despite the Democrats’ big majorities, Obama would be wise to follow through on his pledge to reach out to Republicans. “Even with more Democrats in the House and not quite 60 in the Senate, you have to work with the other party,” he said.

Sen. Michael D. Crapo , R-Idaho, said he expects Obama to act on his post-partisanship pledge. “I hope he reaches out,” he said. “The way to do that is to bring people together and sit down at the table. You do the work beforehand so you don’t have the battles afterward, or else you take extreme positions and try to use political spin to force the opposition into accepting your position.”