CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Updated Nov. 13, 2008 – 3:57 a.m.
Begich Takes 814-Vote Lead in Alaska Senate Race
By Rachel Kapochunas, Marie Horrigan and Greg Giroux, CQ Staff
Democratic challenger Mark Begich held an 814-vote lead over Republican Sen. Ted Stevens early Thursday as Alaska counted the absentee ballots and early ballots that weren’t tallied on Election Day.
State elections officials said their count-in-progress showed that Stevens, who was convicted of criminal charges just days before voters went to the polls, trailed with 131,382 votes versus 132,196 for Begich, a Democrat. An unspecified number of ballots were yet to be counted.
The state is accepting some categories of ballots through Nov. 19 if they were postmarked in time. So it is possible that the margin — 47.1 percent for Stevens and 47.4 percent for Begich —could change after overseas military ballots arrive and the canvassing is complete.
Despite the conviction on seven felony counts of failing to report expensive gifts — which Stevens said he will appeal — the veteran senator has built a broad support base by forcefully advocating for Alaskan interests over his 40-year tenure in the Senate, which has made him the chamber’s longest-serving Republican ever.
The large number of uncounted ballots means the race remains too close to be called.
The tally had been delayed by state election rules that allow officials to count any absentee ballot postmarked inside the state by Election Day and received within 10 days of the election (which is this Friday), and any overseas or military ballot postmarked by Election Day and received with 15 days (next Wednesday, Nov. 19). State election officials have set Nov. 25 as their target date for certifying the election results.
If Stevens wins the election, his future in the Senate is unclear.
Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell , the Senate minority leader, stated after Stevens’ conviction that he expected Stevens would be expelled if his appeals fail to reverse the conviction. In addition. there is an effort afoot to make an example of Stevens by refusing to give him any committee seats in the next session of Congress. That effort will play out in a secret vote next week by all returning Republican senators.
Both Arizona Sen. John McCain , the Republican presidential nominee, and running mate Sarah Palin , the governor of Stevens’ home state of Alaska, had called on him to resign following his conviction.
Should Stevens win the election but then vacate the seat, a special election would be held to replace him on a date between 60 and 90 days after the vacancy occurs. It may be possible for Palin, as governor, to appoint an interim replacement prior to a special election, though that interpretation of Alaska law is subject to a dispute.
Other Races
Even with all the twists and turns in this race, it is quite possible that the Stevens-Begich contest will be decided before the two other Nov. 4 Senate races, in Minnesota and Georgia, that have not been concluded. Key figures in both of those pending races met the press on Wednesday.
Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie told a news conference that he expected members of the state canvassing board to use its Nov. 18 meeting to conclude that an automatic recount is required in the race between first-term Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and Democratic comedian and writer Al Franken. The count in that race stands virtually tied, with Coleman leading by 206 votes — a margin of less than one-hundredth of 1 percentage point out of the 2.9 million votes cast.
Begich Takes 814-Vote Lead in Alaska Senate Race
There would be about 120 recount sites across the state, Ritchie said. He added that his office has set Dec. 5 as the target date for the local centers to report back with the recounted vote results, with Dec. 16 as the target date for the state canvassing board to meet to review challenged ballots. “We expect everything to move smoothly,” he said.
Meanwhile, the Dec. 2 Georgia Senate runoff, now less than three weeks away, was the topic of a conference call with reporters held by first-term Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss . Chambliss, who on Nov. 4 fell just short of the majority he needed under state law to claim an outright victory over Democratic former state Rep. Jim Martin, was joined on the call by Nevada Sen. John Ensign , chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the campaign arm of the Senate GOP.
Though Chambliss is confident of obtaining the small uptick in his vote percentage that he needs to win in the one-on-one runoff, he admitted to concern about the vast financial advantage held throughout the election cycle by the NRSC’s partisan counterpart, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “We’re a long way away from having the resources we need to match the Democrats,” Chambliss said.
Chambliss emphasized the boost he is receiving from leading Republican figures as he seeks to pull out victory in an election in which he was once heavily favored. McCain, who carried Georgia by 5 percentage points even as he lost the national presidential election to Democrat Barack Obama , has committed to campaign for Chambliss in Georgia, as has former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who earlier this year contended against McCain for the Republican presidential nomination. Martin, though, is receiving organizational assistance from veterans of Obama’s strong presidential campaign and is holding out hope that the president-elect might come to the state to stump for him.
According to the latest vote count, Chambliss received 49.8 percent in the general election to 46.8 percent for Martin with 99 percent of precincts reporting. Libertarian Party candidate Allen Buckley received the remaining 3.4 percent. Results are expected to be certified this week, and the runoff will be officially scheduled for Dec. 2 if, as expected, Chambliss remains under the 50 percent threshold.
The outcomes in these races will determine whether the Democrats’ final gains in this year’s Senate races will be big or super-sized. Democrats already have won confirmed victory for six seats held by Republicans, expanding their effective majority from the current razor-thin 51 seats to at least 57 seats — the biggest number for either party since the Democrats held 57 in 1993.
Meanwhile, with the outcomes in five U.S. House races still pending, the Democrats are ensured of at least 255 of the 435 seats, with their net gain over the Republicans now at 20 seats. The latest decision in their favor came Tuesday, as Democratic prosecutor Frank M. Kratovil Jr. clinched victory over Republican state Sen. Andy Harris in Maryland’s 1st District, where Harris had defeated nine-term Republican Rep. Wayne T. Gilchrest in a Feb. 12 primary.
The three Nov. 4 general elections that remain undecided, all for Republican-held seats, have had no dramatic new developments over the past couple of days:
• California’s 4th District. Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock maintained a 928-vote lead Wednesday afternoon — 50.2 to 49.8 percent — over Democrat Charlie Brown, a former Air Force lieutenant colonel, as absentee and provisional ballots are counted in the historically Republican 4th District in northeastern California.
McClintock’s campaign admitted Tuesday that their candidate could have a net loss of as many as 1,500 votes — more than his current lead over Brown — as votes are counted in Nevada County. The tally in that 4th District county Wednesday afternoon showed Brown pulling 57 percent of the vote there. But additional votes remain to be tallied in other counties, including some where McClintock held the advantage in the initial count.
Officials of both campaigns have indicated they will wait until all ballots are counted before taking further action. The candidates are competing to succeed Republican Rep. John T. Doolittle , who nearly lost to Brown in a 2006 election viewed as a referendum on Doolittle’s ties to now-convicted influence peddler Jack Abramoff.
• Ohio’s 15th District. Republican state Sen. Steve Stivers leads Democratic county commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy by 149 votes, according to election officials in Columbus who are in the process of tallying thousands of provisional ballots. Stivers’ strong showing in the contest was not a given: He was running against the same Democrat who in 2006 came within one-half of 1 percentage point of toppling Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce , whose decision to not seek a ninth House term this year left the seat open. Though Kilroy lost that race two years ago, Pryce’s margin did narrow as provisional ballots were tallied.
• Virginia’s 5th District. Democrat Tom Perriello, an organizer of faith-based groups, declared victory Nov. 7 over six-term Republican Rep. Virgil H. Goode Jr. , who is trailing by 745 votes out of nearly 317,000 cast in a district that includes Charlottesville and Danville. Goode, who is bidding for a seventh term, has not conceded the election and could ask for a recount if the state election board’s certification on Nov. 24 still shows him trailing by less than 1 percentage point. Perriello presently leads by about one-fourth of 1 percentage point.
Begich Takes 814-Vote Lead in Alaska Senate Race
The other two yet-to-decided races are general elections to be held Dec. 6 in two Louisiana districts, the 4th and the 2nd. The 4th District race has one more Republican seat in play, as Democratic prosecutor Paul J. Carmouche and Republican physician John Fleming are in a close race to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Jim McCrery . But the Democrats’ hold on the seat in the 2nd District, a New Orleans-based party stronghold, appears secure, as Democratic Rep. William J. Jefferson is heavily favored to defeat Republican lawyer Joseph Cao. The election calendar was thrown off by a hurricane that hit in early September and delayed the Louisiana primary.
And there is one state, Missouri, in which the outcome of the presidential race is not yet determined.
• Missouri Presidential. As of Wednesday afternoon, McCain led Obama in Missouri by 4,986 votes out of more than 2.9 million cast, a margin of less than two-tenths of 1 percentage point. When the week began, McCain’s lead was 5,859 votes. Local election officials have been tallying provisional ballots before they certify their results to the state on Nov. 18. Though the outcome in Missouri will affect only the scope of Obama’s victory, a McCain win there — as seems likely — would mark only the second time in the past 100 years that Missouri has not sided with the presidential election winner. It would mark the third consecutive election, and eighth in the past 11 dating to 1968, in which the state has gone Republican for president.
With Missouri’s 11 electoral votes still pending, Obama holds 365 electoral votes, or 95 more than the bare majority of 270 he needed to claim victory. McCain currently has 162 electoral votes.
First posted Nov. 12, 2008 7:55 p.m.




Comments
Certain polls do show Carmouche up by 10 points, but what everyone fails to mention that this poll was conducted by the Carmouche campaign! Come on folks, if you were running for Congress, wouldn't you try to paint the best possible picture for your campaign? I wouldn't trust any polls posted by the Carmouche campaign.
New results at Alaska election website at 11/12/2008 07:33:37 PM Alaska time show Begich leads by 814 Begich, Mark DEM 132196 47.41% Bird, Bob AI 11315 4.06% Gianoutsos, Ted NA 1140 0.41% Haase, Fredrick D. LIB 2086 0.75% Stevens, Ted REP 131382 47.12% Write-in Votes 718 0.26%
I've been reading a little about the Minnesota race. The first item right after the election was the Coleman campaign objecting to a recount on the grounds that it would cost the taxpayers money. I don't know much about the candidates, but think that in close elections, it's worth every penny to make sure the counts are as accurate as possible. We don't spend nearly enough on elections in this country.
I believe the answer is 'yes' to this question but the NE SOS election '08 site hasn't updated in days -- Do the 365 e.v.'s for Obama include the 1 e.v. from the NE02 congressional district, which Obama has apparently carried?
POST A COMMENT
Oops! The following errors must be addressed: