Obama, Democrats Likely to Pare Back Missile Defense Plans to Save Money

An August report on the future roles and missions of the agency led by retired Air Force Gen. Larry D. Welch recommended it return to focusing on research and development while speeding the transition of more developed systems to other parts of the Defense Department.

“I think it’s unlikely you’ll see MDA in its current form after next year. It’s going to be downgraded,” said one Democratic committee aide. “MDA needs to stop doing everything, and they need to go back to their core mission.”

The Armed Services and Appropriations committees are expected to step up efforts to slash budget lines for futuristic long-term technologies in favor of the missile defense subsystems that exist now, several aides said.

This spells danger, in particular, for programs such as the Airborne Laser (ABL) program, the Kinetic Energy Interceptor program and the Space-Based Interceptor program.

Defense experts warn that large savings in the missile defense program are unrealistic because many parts of the program are defended by strong congressional constituencies.

Changing Pentagon Priorities

Meanwhile, the dispute over planned missile defense sites in Eastern Europe is shaping up to be not only Obama’s first major foreign policy challenge but also his first test in altering Pentagon priorities.

The day after the election, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev threatened to deploy short-range missiles near Poland if the U.S. proceeds with the sites. A recent phone call between Obama and Polish President Lech Kaczynski revealed confusion in Europe over Obama’s commitment to the project.

But Obama’s position on the European missile defense sites has been consistent. He supports continued research and development related to the sites but has pledged not to proceed with construction until more testing has been completed, which would happen in 2010 at the earliest.

“Congress has insisted that no funds can be used to acquire or deploy a new system in Europe until the Defense Department certifies that the program can work,” Obama said in an August statement after the United States and Poland inked their agreement, “This is the right approach.”

Obama’s views match up well with leading defense-minded Democrats in Congress, who have used the defense authorization bills to bar construction on the sites, pending the ratification of agreements by parliaments in both host countries and more testing and analysis.

“It is essential to know whether this system will work effectively before we buy or deploy it, and that will take some time to determine,” Senate Armed Services Chairman Carl Levin , D-Mich., said.

Russia is likely to delay any real policy changes until it sees what the Obama administration does about the sites, said Alexandros Petersen, a fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.