By Anne L. Kim, CQ Staff

It would be an understatement to say that controversy-plagued Louisiana Democratic Rep. William J. Jefferson is running for re-election this year under less than optimal circumstances. Yet it is not an exaggeration to say that he is a nearly prohibitive favorite to win his bid for a 10th House term in the weather-delayed Dec. 6 general election in the New Orleans-based 2nd Congressional District.

The 61-year-old Jefferson is awaiting trial on federal bribery and corruption charges. Even before his indictment in June 2007, the House Democratic leadership removed him from the prestigious Ways and Means Committee — prompted by the Justice Department investigation into his activities, which included a highly publicized allegation that Jefferson had foil-wrapped $90,000 in bribe money and stored it in a freezer.

The 16 counts on which Jefferson stands indicted include soliciting bribes, corruption, money laundering, obstruction of justice, wire fraud and racketeering. The case centers on an accusation that he sought and accepted bribes to be paid to a family member in return for his official assistance in promoting business deals in Africa. A status conference for his trial is scheduled for Dec. 16.

For people outside New Orleans, “I think it’s hard to kind of figure out how someone could be supported who seems to have this much going against him,” said Peter Burns, an associate professor of political science at Loyola University New Orleans.

Jefferson nonetheless won a comfortable victory in the 2nd District’s Democratic primary runoff, held on the national Election Day of Nov. 4, taking 57 percent of the vote to defeat Helena Moreno, a local TV news reporter and first-time candidate. That set him up as the likely winner over Republican lawyer Anh “Joseph” Cao in the general election — given the 2nd District’s history as a Democratic stronghold where the party’s nominees typically receive around three-quarters of the total vote.

Jefferson’s status as one of the senior African-American members of Congress has helped him to maintain a support base in Louisiana’s only black-majority district. He also has deep ties with voters in the district that he has represented for 18 years, said Silas Lee, a pollster and a professor of public policy and sociology at Xavier University of Louisiana.

Jefferson is responsive to constituents, visible to voters and continues to be able to relate to people, Lee said.

Burns also said incumbency is an important factor. “Name recognition, ability to get things done for the district — all those things are in Jefferson’s favor and have been for a long time,” Burns said.

And voters who support Jefferson are giving him the benefit of the doubt concerning his legal problems, according to Lee. “In our society, you’re still innocent until proven guilty,” Lee said. “That’s the attitude of people who support and like him, that’s the attitude they take.”

Jefferson, nonetheless, survived a first-round primary on Oct. 4 in which he received just 25 percent of the Democratic vote, benefitting from a splintered opposition that kept any one candidate from galvanizing support among constituents who are disgruntled about the congressman’s knack for controversy.

“He’s been a little lucky,” said Kirby Goidel, a professor of mass communication and political science at Louisiana State University who studies political participation, elections and campaign finance.

Jefferson faced five African-American opponents out of the six candidates who challenged him in the primary. The fractured vote that resulted not only allowed Jefferson to finish first with his small plurality, but sent him into a runoff against Moreno — the only candidate in the field who is not black — who had 20 percent.

“He had so many black challengers that none of them were able to emerge from the pack as the strong challenger,” said Clancy DuBos, political editor and columnist at Gambit Weekly, a newspaper in New Orleans, adding, “Normally when an incumbent gets only 25 percent of the primary, you think he’s dead.”