CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Dec. 1, 2008 – 6:09 a.m.
Reach Exceeds Grasp — Again — for Most Rematch Candidates
By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff
Losing an election by just a little can create a lot of temptation for a candidate to try again, figuring that an earlier start, a change in strategy or some other campaign tweak will produce a victory on the second try. That is why there typically are several rematch contests in each congressional election cycle.
But the second time, it turns out, is rarely the charm for challenging candidates, and their track record in this year’s round of rematches was no exception. Eighteen races in which the same major-party candidates faced off for the second consecutive election were rated as at least somewhat competitive by CQ Politics. And in 15 of those 18 contests, the same candidate won both elections.
In fact, the defeated challenger candidates in a dozen of those races actually lost ground, with the incumbents winning more handily in the second round.
Of the three exceptions to the rule, the one with the highest profile came in New Hampshire’s race for the U.S. Senate. In this year’s only Senate rematch, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, a former governor (1997-2003), defeated one-term Republican Sen. John E. Sununu , reversing the outcome of their first showdown in a 2002 open-seat race. Shaheen, who lost in 2002 by 4 percentage points, this time won by 6 points.
Shaheen benefitted from a political environment that had greatly shifted in the six years since her first Senate try. It was the Republican Party that had national political momentum in 2002, and a tradition of “Yankee Republicanism” still was strong in Shaheen’s home state of New Hampshire. But the national surge favoring the Democrats over the past couple of election cycles took hold in New Hampshire, which has joined in the longer-running Democratic trend throughout the New England region.
In the two House rematches in which the outcomes flipped this year — also both Democratic pickups — the challengers were political newcomers when they first ran in 2006, and both benefitted greatly from the familiarity they had built among voters.
Larry Kissell, a social studies teacher and former factory worker from North Carolina’s 8th District, defeated five-term Republican Rep. Robin Hayes , to whom he had lost by just 329 votes in the nation’s second-closest House race of 2006. Eric Massa, a Navy veteran and former Pentagon aide from New York’s 29th District, defeated two-term Republican Rep. John R. “Randy” Kuhl Jr. by 2 percentage points two years after Kuhl won their first matchup by 3.
But far more often than not, rematch candidates fail. Part of the reason is that the winning candidates, with another term of incumbency providing them with bragging points, often gain political strength between the first and subsequent matchups. And rather than greet second-time candidates as familiar faces, some voters come to view them as perpetual office-seekers who should have stepped aside and allowed new challengers to run.
Rematch candidates also can run aground when their comeback strategies turn out to be predicated on a false hope. That happened to some Republicans, including a handful of past incumbents, who ran again after losing in 2006, which a 30-seat loss made the GOP’s worst election year since 1974.
The political environment in 2008, they thought, could not possibly be as bad for the party as it was in 2006. But they found out, to their chagrin, that it was.
Former three-term Republican Rep. Melissa A. Hart tried to reclaim the seat in western Pennsylvania’s socially conservative 4th District, where she lost the 2006 race to Democrat Jason Altmire by 4 percentage points. But Altmire, a former hospital association executive who worked during his freshman term to build a profile as a centrist Democrat, deflected Hart’s effort to cast him as too liberal — and saw his winning margin balloon to 12 percentage points, even though the district was no stronghold for Democratic presidential winner Barack Obama .
Republican Anne M. Northup lost the House seat she’d held for five terms by just a bit more than 2 percentage points in 2006. But she hadn’t planned for a rematch against Democrat John Yarmuth in Kentucky’s 3rd District, which includes Louisville and its suburbs.
In fact, Northup had turned around quickly after her 2006 loss to run in the 2007 Republican primary for governor, which she lost, and was recruited by GOP officials to run for the House again only after their preferred candidate withdrew to fulfill a military obligation. Yarmuth’s high visibility in Kentucky’s most Democratic-leaning district, combined with the sharp downturn in Northup’s fortunes, enabled the freshman incumbent to win his rematch by nearly 20 percentage points.
Reach Exceeds Grasp — Again — for Most Rematch Candidates
In two cases, the same Republican who lost a special election earlier this year tried again in November and lost even more decisively.
In March, Democrat Bill Foster defeated Republican Jim Oberweis, a dairy executive and frequent office-seeker, for the seat in Illinois’ historically Republican 14th District that former House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert vacated when he resigned the previous November. Though Republican officials criticized Oberweis as a flawed candidate after his March loss, he was again the party’s nominee for the Nov. 4 election, and Foster coasted to a 15-point win.
More surprising was the size of Democrat Travis W. Childers ’ November victory over Republican Greg Davis, a mayor, in northern Mississippi’s strongly conservative-leaning 1st District.
Childers extended to a 10-point margin after edging Davis by eight points in a May special election to fill the seat vacated the previous December, when seven-term Republican Rep. Roger Wicker was appointed to fill a vacant Senate seat. Childers built his November cushion even though Wicker ran and won for the Senate on the same ballot, in a special election to fill out the remaining four years of the term that Republican Trent Lott had quit to go into lobbying.
Yet despite the strongly pro-Democratic political environment this year, some of that party’s rematch challengers also back-slid in their second tries this year.
Democrat Christine Jennings, a former bank president, this year lost to freshman Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan in southwestern Florida’s 13th District by 18 percentage points. This was a landslide, especially when compared to the 369-vote margin by which Buchanan won in 2006 — an outcome contested for months by Jennings, who claimed voting machine irregularities.
The Sarasota Herald Tribune said in an opinion piece that Buchanan benefitted from incumbency and “leveraged those assets and, in the process, broadened his base of political support to include former opponents and skeptics.” Buchanan, the newspaper said, “showed a willingness during his first term to break with his party and he emphasized bipartisan opportunities during his campaign.”
Illinois Democrat Dan Seals, a business consultant who received 46.6 percent of the vote in 2006 against Republican Rep. Mark Steven Kirk in suburban Chicago’s 10th District, took 47.4 percent of the vote on Nov. 4 — an improvement of less than 1 percentage point.
Seals did only marginally better even though he raised more money for this second campaign than for his first, benefitted from spending by the national Democratic Party in the partisan swing district, and ran on a ballot headed by Obama, the Illinois senator who won a dominant victory in his home state over Republican John McCain .
Kirk, who clinched a fifth House term on Nov. 4, bolstered his defenses for the rematch by raising more money than any other Republican member of Congress in the 2007-08 election cycle, about $5 million. He also emphasized a politically independent voting record and an image as a GOP moderate, which appealed to many ticket-splitting voters in his district.
Some return Democratic challengers did do better this year, though not better enough. Nebraska Democrat Jim Esch, a lawyer, fell 4 percentage points short of defeating 2nd District Republican Rep. Lee Terry , who had won their 2006 race by 9 points.
Esch’s better showing was attributed in part to a vigorous and successful campaign by Obama in the Omaha-centered district where — as in the rest of strongly Republican Nebraska — past Democratic presidential candidates had typically yielded to their GOP opponents. Nebraska, along with only Maine, allots some of its electoral votes based on the outcomes in each congressional district. So Obama’s narrow win over Republican John McCain in the 2nd District vote entitled him to one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes, boosting his winning total to 365.




Comments
What this article fails to mention is the tremendous amount of pork assigned to key districts. Most of the races you mention are districts where a freshman Democrat is running against the Republican who lost the seat two years ago. In those cases, you can bet that the majority Democratic party leaders made sure that that particular freshman Democrat got lots of money to spend in the district. (Note: It's not a Democratic party tactic; Republicans did the same thing when they controlled Congress.) If you're going to report on these races, at least tell the whole story.
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