By CQ Politics staff

The Republicans’ disastrous 2008 national Senate campaign isn’t quite over, as there is no decision yet in the Minnesota cliffhanger race between GOP Sen. Norm Coleman and Democratic entertainer Al Franken.

But GOP officials will have little time to tend their wounds before gearing up for the 2010 elections, as they seek to reverse some of the damage from a 2006 campaign that saw them lose six seats and their Senate majority, and the elections this year in which they lost at least seven more seats, pending the outcome in that Minnesota race.

Republicans’ hopes for a significant comeback in 2010 will depend heavily on whether the dissatisfaction with President George W. Bush , and the Republicans in general, shifts to the new administration of Democrat Barack Obama and the Democrats who now dominate both chambers of Congress.

But even if the political atmosphere improves for the GOP, its campaign strategists will need to have more success than they had in 2006 and 2008 at recruiting strong challengers to Democratic incumbents, raising money and persuading their own incumbents to run again to defend their seats. The latter matter took a hit this past Tuesday, when one-term Florida Republican Sen. Mel Martinez announced he would not seek a second term in 2010, joining Kansas Republican Sam Brownback — who is observing a personal term limit — on the pending retirement list.

Map: Senate Races in 2010

The GOP at least has this to fall back on: the disadvantage the party faces in the number of seats it has to defend in 2010 is not as great as it was this year, when 23 Republicans and 12 Democratic seats were up for election.

Among the regularly scheduled 2010 elections, 19 are for Republican-held seats and 15 for Democratic seats. And the margin will shrink to 19-17 because there will be special elections for two seats currently held by Democrats whom Obama, who ran for president as a senator from Illinois, has tapped to serve in his administration: Vice President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware and Secretary of State-designate Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.

But even this requires a cautionary note for Republicans. The Democrats had more seats on the line than the GOP in 2006 when they made the six-seat gain that started the Senate political snowball rolling.

The outlooks for the 2010 contests for the 19 Republican-held seats are in state-alphabetical order below.

Alabama

Incumbent: Richard C. Shelby (first elected 1986)

2004 Senate Contest: Shelby 67.6 percent, Wayne Sowell (D) 32.4 percent

2008 Presidential Race Result: John McCain (R) 60.4 percent, Barack Obama (D) 38.8 percent

2008 Senate Race Result: Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) 63.5 percent, Vivian Davis Figures (D) 36.5 percent

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $13,295,477

Shelby, who served eight years in the House and his first eight years in the Senate as a conservative Democrat, switched parties in the wake of the 1994 Republican upsurge and has never broken stride. With Shelby easily exceeding 60 percent of the vote in each of his past three contests and sitting on a huge pile of campaign cash, Democrats likely will be much more focused on the 2010 race to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Bob Riley . Shelby, the ranking Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, also didn’t hurt himself politically in this conservative-leaning state when he strongly opposed the Wall Street “bailout” legislation enacted in early October.

Alaska

Incumbent: Lisa Murkowski (first appointed December 2002, first elected 2004)

2004 Senate Contest: Murkowski 48.6 percent, Tony Knowles (D) 45.6 percent

2008 Presidential Race Result: John McCain (R) 59.5 percent, Barack Obama (D) 37.8 percent

2008 Senate Race Result: Mark Begich (D) 47.8 percent, Sen. Ted Stevens (R) 46.6 percent (Democratic takeover)

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $327,352

Murkowski was fortunate to be in the middle of her term during the Alaska Republicans’ chaotic 2008 campaign year, which saw Gov. Sarah Palin draw fame and controversy as the GOP’s surprise vice presidential nominee; long-iconic Sen. Ted Stevens narrowly defeated for re-election shortly after his conviction on seven federal felony charges of failing to report lavish gifts; and Don Young , the state’s sole House member for more than 35 years, facing ethics allegations that fueled the serious primary and general election challenges he had to overcome.

Murkowski’s expected 2010 race probably won’t be center stage, as Palin is up for a second term as governor that year. And the Senate incumbent likely gained security because Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich — the fastest rising Democratic star in the strongly Republican-leaning state — won his bid for the seat Stevens held for 40 years. Now the most prominent Democratic prospect on the statewide political scene is former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz, who challenged Young in this year’s House contest, led in polls for most of the fall, but ended up losing by 5 percentage points.

A primary challenge to Murkowski can’t be ruled out because of the competition between the new generation of Republican leadership represented by Palin and the old school symbolized by Stevens, Young and Frank H. Murkowski, the former senator and governor whose 2002 appointment of his daughter Lisa to the Senate caused a backlash that contributed to his 2006 primary defeat by Palin. But the possibility of a primary likely was diminished by Lisa Murkowski ’s strong endorsement of Palin’s vice presidential bid this year.

Arizona

Incumbent: John McCain (first elected 1986)

2004 Senate Contest: McCain 76.7 percent, Stuart Starky (D) 20.6 percent

2008 Presidential Race Result: McCain 53.6 percent, Obama 45.1 percent

2006 Senate Race Result: Sen. Jon Kyl (R) 53.3 percent, Jim Pederson (D) 43.5 percent

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $13,931

In the aftermath of his defeat by Obama in this year’s presidential race, McCain said he definitely plans to run for a fifth Senate term in Arizona. He has never faced serious congressional competition at home in a career that began in 1982 with his first of two U.S. House wins. Despite the conciliatory tone McCain has taken since Election Day, which included a meeting with Obama in the president-elect’s home town of Chicago, he is unlikely to get the free pass to which he has been accustomed — especially after he pulled 54 percent at home in the presidential race, 23 percentage points less than he received in his most recent Senate race. He also must rebuild his campaign treasury after shifting his cash reserves to his presidential campaign account. Yet McCain likely caught a break when Obama announced his choice for new Homeland Security secretary is popular Arizona Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano , who appeared headed for a 2010 Senate bid and even led McCain in a recent independent poll.

Florida

Incumbent: Mel Martinez , retiring (first elected 2004)

2004 Senate Contest: Martinez 49.4 percent, Betty Castor (D) 48.3 percent (Republican takeover)

2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 51.0 percent, McCain 48.2 percent

2006 Senate Race Result: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 60.3 percent, Katherine Harris (R) 38.1 percent

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $1,248,319

Florida is frequently a partisan battleground, so there are long lists of potential candidates in both major parties for the race to succeed retiring one-term incumbent Martinez. But hopefuls in each party are waiting to hear whether a star-power figure may make a run at it. On the Republican side, it is former two-term Gov. Jeb Bush, a brother of President George W. Bush . On the Democratic side, it’s state chief financial officer Alex Sink; she’s been viewed as a rising star since her election to the office equivalent to state treasurer in 2006.

Martinez appeared to be one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the 2010 lineup. He had a narrow 2004 victory after a campaign in which his opponents complained about his negative tactics and has suffered low job approval ratings during his term so far. He also wasn’t helped by his close association with President Bush, whom he had served during Bush’s first term as Housing and Urban Development secretary and who in 2007 helped persuade Martinez to take what turned out to be a short-lived appointment as general chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Still, Martinez’ early December announcement that he would not seek a second term in an election nearly two years away was a surprise. A conservative lean among state voters spurred a long-running Republican trend, but Obama’s close and important win in the 2008 presidential race underscores the overall competitive nature of state politics.

Georgia

Incumbent: Johnny Isakson (first elected 2004)

2004 Senate Contest: Isakson 57.9 percent, Denise L. Majette (D) 40.0 percent (Republican takeover)

2008 Presidential Race Result: McCain 52.2 percent, Obama 47.0 percent

2008 Senate Runoff Result: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 57.4 percent, Jim Martin (D) 42.6 percent

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $2,303,085

When Isakson won the 2004 race to succeed retiring conservative Democratic Sen. Zell Miller, the Republican Party was soaring in Georgia. The state’s staggering Democrats gave their Senate nomination to Majette, who was only in her first House term and had a liberal record representing a black-majority district. Democrats may make a stronger effort to recruit a challenger for 2010, coming off a 2008 election that saw Obama trim the party’s presidential deficit in the state to 5 percentage points from 17 points in 2004 and saw Republican Senate incumbent Chambliss forced into the runoff, although he ultimately clinched his second term. Still, Isakson will be no easy target. He is a low-key conservative who describes himself as pragmatic on issues, and he has built up a sizable nest egg for a 2010 race in his campaign treasury.

Idaho

Incumbent: Michael D. Crapo (First elected 1998)

2004 Senate Contest: Crapo 99.2 percent, no Democratic nominee

2008 Presidential Race Result: McCain 61.5 percent, Obama 36.1 percent

2008 Senate Race Result: Jim Risch (R) 57.7 percent, Larry LaRocco (D) 34.1 percent

( Larry E Craig , R, retiring)

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $1,799,377

Democratic campaign planners have been aggressive over the past couple of election cycles, but don’t expect to see this Idaho race on their target lists. The well-liked Crapo, who didn’t even draw a Democratic opponent in his 2004 re-election bid, has a conservative record that fits Idaho, one of the nation’s sturdiest Republican strongholds. In 2008, what amounted to a mildly off-year for the state’s GOP, McCain still beat Obama by 25 points, and the margin was nearly the same in the state’s open-seat Senate race won by Risch, the incumbent lieutenant governor. Crapo has nearly $2 million on hand as insurance against a serious challenge.

Iowa

Incumbent: Charles E. Grassley (first elected 1980)

2004 Senate Contest: Grassley 70.2 percent, Arthur Small (D) 27.9 percent

2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 54.0 percent, McCain 44.4 percent

2008 Senate Race Result: Sen. Tom Harkin (D) 62.7 percent, Christopher Reed (R) 37.2 percent

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $2,655,814

Grassley, who will turn 77 two months before Election Day in 2010, said in April 2007 that he plans to run for a sixth Senate term. And Grassley, a fixture in Iowa politics, appears very secure despite a recent Democratic trend in the longtime swing state symbolized by Obama’s easy win for the state’s seven electoral votes. Grassley is well-situated as a senior Republican on key committees such as Finance, Judiciary and Agriculture. The stable of future Democratic Senate candidates includes Rep. Bruce Braley , who this year easily won a second House term in an eastern district that includes Davenport, Waterloo and Dubuque, and former two-term Gov. Tom Vilsack. But neither is likely to risk a run against Grassley.

Kansas

Incumbent: Sam Brownback , retiring (first elected 1996)

2004 Senate Contest: Brownback 69.2 percent, Lee Jones (D) 27.5 percent

2008 Presidential Race Result: McCain 56.8 percent, Obama 41.4 percent

2008 Senate Race Result: Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 60.2 percent, Jim Slattery (D) 36.3 percent

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $31,320

Prospective candidates already are positioning themselves for the expected open seat race to succeed Brownback, who made a short-lived bid for this year’s Republican presidential nomination. Brownback is considering a 2010 run for the governor’s seat occupied by popular but term-limited Democrat Kathleen Sebelius .

Kansas’ continued status as a Republican stronghold is evident in the solid margins enjoyed this year by McCain for president and Roberts in his easily successful bid for a third Senate term. So Democrats’ hopes for competing seriously in the 2010 Senate race likely hinge on Sebelius, who will be heavily recruited by national Democratic officials. The Republicans, who have a Senate winning streak in the state that dates to 1936, face the strong possibility of a competitive primary. Among those testing the waters are two U.S. representatives: Jerry Moran , just elected to a seventh term in the 1st Congressional District, who has already filed papers with the Federal Election Commission to set up a Senate campaign fundraising committee, and Todd Tiahrt , who this year won an eighth term in the 4th District and has said he will decide by the end of this year whether he’ll run for the Senate.

Kentucky

Incumbent: Jim Bunning (first elected 1998)

2004 Senate Contest: Bunning 50.7 percent, Daniel Mongiardo (D) 49.3 percent

2008 Presidential Race Result: McCain 57.4 percent, Obama 41.2 percent

2008 Senate Race Result: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 53.0 percent, Bruce Lunsford (D) 47.0 percent

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $175,045

Though his minimal fundraising so far raised questions about whether he intended to run again in 2010, Bunning not only has vowed to seek re-election when he will be 79 years old, but said recently that he’ll need $10 million to win a campaign for a new term. That seems a pretty good guess, given that Bunning likely will rank high on the Democrats’ target list. The wide margin won by McCain for president in the conservative-leaning state belies the overall competitiveness of the state’s politics, seen in Democrat Steve Beshear’s unseating of Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher in 2007 and the close race endured this year by McConnell, the Senate minority leader, in his win for a fifth term.

Bunning — a former Hall of Fame baseball pitcher who served six House terms before moving on to the Senate — won both his previous Senate races by extremely close margins. Mongiardo, a little-known state senator when he launched his narrowly unsuccessful challenge to Bunning in 2004, is now the state’s lieutenant governor and a leading potential foe for the incumbent’s 2010 race. State Attorney General Jack Conway is another prominent Democrat mentioned as a possible Senate candidate. Darlene Fitzgerald Price, a former federal customs agent, has already filed paperwork to seek the Democratic nomination, but she isn’t well-known statewide.

Louisiana

Incumbent: David Vitter (first elected 2004)

2004 Senate Contest: Vitter 51.0 percent, Chris John (D) 29.3 percent, John Kennedy (D) 14.9 percent (Republican takeover)

2008 Presidential Race Result: McCain 58.6 percent, Obama 39.9 percent

2008 Senate Race Result: Sen. Mary L. Landrieu (D) 52.1 percent, Kennedy (R) 45.7 percent

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $1,937,705

Vitter has to brace himself for an airing of his personal life if he, as expected, seeks re-election in 2010. The married senator publicly confessed in 2007 to committing a “very serious sin” after it was revealed that his phone number appeared in the records of a D.C. escort service (the proprietor of which, after her conviction on charges of abetting prostitution, committed suicide). Democrats, despite McCain’s strong presidential showing, saw Landrieu elected to a third Senate term this year over party-switcher Kennedy, the state treasurer. They almost certainly will seek to recruit a strong 2010 challenger under the presumption that the taint of scandal weakened Vitter, a former House member viewed by many as a rising GOP star after he won the 2004 race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. John B. Breaux. And though no major Republican has stated interest in pursuing the seat, Vitter cannot at this point be considered immune from a September 2010 primary challenge.

Missouri

Incumbent: Christopher S. Bond (first elected 1986)

2004 Senate Contest: Bond 56.1 percent, Nancy Farmer 42.8 percent

2008 Presidential Race Result: McCain 49.4 percent, Obama 49.3 percent

2006 Senate Race Result: Claire McCaskill (D) 49.6 percent, Sen. Jim Talent 47.3 percent (Democratic takeover)

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $1,301,991

Bond, known throughout the state as “Kit,” hasn’t announced whether he’ll seek a fifth term at age 71, though he’s doing the things needed to prepare for a campaign — including piling up a seven-figure cash reserve. Though Bond has been a major presence in state politics since his election as state auditor in 1970, his races have seldom been easy: The 56 percent he received in 2004 was his highest vote share in any of his four past Senate races, and he lost a 1976 re-election bid for governor before reclaiming that office for a term in 1980. Democrats certainly won’t be forestalled from challenging Bond again by a 2008 campaign that saw McCain nip Obama by fewer than 4,000 votes in this traditional swing state, while Democrat Jay Nixon won the open-seat governor’s race to replace retiring Republican incumbent Matt Blunt . One potential Democratic challenger to Bond is Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, a member of the state’s most prominent Democratic political family.

New Hampshire

Incumbent: Judd Gregg (first elected 1992)

2004 Senate Contest: Gregg 66.2 percent, Doris “Granny D” Haddock 33.7 percent

2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 54.4 percent, McCain 44.7 percent

2008 Senate Race Result: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 51.7 percent, Sen. John E. Sununu 45.2 percent (Democratic takeover)

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $879,845

As he looks ahead to a bid for a fourth Senate term, Gregg appears as well-situated as a Republican can be in strongly Democratic-trending New England. The ranking Republican on the Budget Committee, Gregg has a mainly conservative record, but his willingness to work across the aisle was clearly evident as he took a lead role in fashioning legislation enacted in October that provided emergency aid to prop up the nation’s financial sector.

Still, Gregg can hardly expect the kind of virtual free pass he got in 2004, when New Hampshire’s “Yankee Republican” heritage still appeared strong. Over the past two election cycles, Democrats have won the state’s other U.S. Senate seat, both House seats and control of the state legislature. Gregg’s biggest worry would be a challenge by John Lynch , the strongly popular governor who won his first two-year term in 2004 and has twice been re-elected by landslide margins. Lynch, though, has given no indication of preparing for a Senate bid. The state’s two House Democrats, Carol Shea-Porter and Paul W. Hodes , are also mentioned as possible Senate challengers.

North Carolina

Incumbent: Richard M. Burr (first elected 2004)

2004 Senate Contest: Burr 51.6 percent, Erskine Bowles (D) 47.0 percent (Republican takeover)

2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 49.7 percent, McCain 49.4 percent

2008 Senate Race Result: Kay Hagan (D) 52.6 percent, Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) 44.2 percent (Democratic takeover)

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $979,349

North Carolina Republicans seemed to be on a roll in 2004 when Burr, then a five-term House incumbent, won the seat left open by one-term Democratic Sen. John Edwards. President Bush that same year carried the state by 12 percentage points — running the GOP’s presidential winning streak to seven elections — even though Edwards was the Democrats’ vice presidential nominee. Two years earlier, Dole had defeated Democrat Bowles to maintain the Republican hold on the seat left open by the retirement of five-term Sen. Jesse Helms.

But Burr will seek re-election in 2010 in the wake of a 2008 campaign that provided a strong comeback for the Democrats in North Carolina. Obama narrowly captured the state’s 15 electoral votes; Hagan, relatively untouted when she launched her Senate bid, withstood a barrage of negative ads to defeat the much better-known Dole; and incumbent Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue overcome a strong Republican campaign by Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory to hold the governor’s seat left open by term-limited Democrat Michael F. Easley .

Burr, who needs to raise his relatively low public profile, could face a challenge from a prominent statewide Democratic official such as state Attorney General Roy Cooper. But Hagan’s upset of Dole could pique the interest of other Democrats, from the congressional delegation and state legislature, who are not currently well-known statewide.

Ohio

Incumbent: George V. Voinovich (first elected 1998)

2004 Senate Contest: Voinovich 63.9 percent, Eric D. Fingerhut (D) 36.2 percent

2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 51.1 percent, McCain 47.3 percent

2006 Senate Race Result: Sherrod Brown (D) 56.2 percent, Sen. Mike DeWine (R) 43.8 percent (Democratic takeover)

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $2,579,332

Voinovich, a former two-term governor now rounding out his second Senate term, certainly can’t be considered a shoo-in for 2010, given the Democrats’ recent resurgence in Ohio politics. The 2006 wins by Brown for the Senate and Democrat Ted Strickland for governor were followed by Obama’s triumph for the 20 electoral votes in a state that had twice provided close but crucial wins for Bush. Still, the Democrats’ chances for a 2010 takeover would greatly improve if Voinovich, who will turn 74 that July, were to decide to retire — something not indicated by that $2.6 million campaign cash reserve that Voinovich reported early this fall. House Democrat Tim Ryan , who represents Youngstown, Warren and part of Akron, has been mentioned as a potential Senate candidate; Republican Rob Portman , a former Cincinnati-area congressman who served as Bush’s budget director and top trade envoy, might run for the Senate if Voinovich retires, and has $1.5 million sitting in his still-open congressional campaign account.

Oklahoma

Incumbent: Tom Coburn (first elected 2004)

2004 Senate Contest: Coburn 52.8 percent, Brad Carson (D) 41.3 percent

2008 Presidential Race Result: John McCain (R) 65.6 percent, Barack Obama (D) 34.4 percent

2008 Senate Race Result: Sen. James M. Inhofe (R) 56.7 percent, Andrew Rice (D) 39.2 percent

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $69,090

Coburn’s staunch conservatism on both social and economic issues — including his outspoken stance in favor of limiting government spending — might raise his vulnerability in some states, but not likely in conservative Oklahoma, one of the nation’s sturdiest Republican strongholds. And his advocacy of political “reform” has led him into some bipartisan alliances: Obama during his presidential campaign, often cited his work with Coburn on an overhaul of congressional ethics rules. Democrats, though, may put out some recruiting feelers to term-limited Gov. Brad Henry , who won two terms in the state’s top job against an otherwise strong Republican tide.

Pennsylvania

Incumbent: Arlen Specter (first elected 1980)

2004 Senate Contest: Specter 52.6 percent, Joseph M. Hoeffel (D) 42.0 percent

2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 54.5 percent, McCain 44.4 percent

2006 Senate Race Result: Bob Casey (D) 58.7 percent, Sen. Rick Santorum (R) 41.3 percent (Democratic takeover)

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $5,396,905

The 2010 Pennsylvania contest has gained unusual early attention, because of TV political talk star Chris Matthews’ public ruminations about a possible campaign for the Democratic nomination to challenge Specter. Though Specter has battled health problems in recent years and will turn 80 in February 2010, he has stated that he plans to seek a sixth term and has backed that up by building up a daunting pile of campaign money.

Still, the Democrats are coming off two consecutive very strong election cycles in Pennsylvania, and — whatever Matthews’ intentions — are likely to put out a stronger candidate recruiting effort than they did the last time Specter ran in 2004. That year, GOP moderate Specter faced a much more difficult challenge in the primary from Patrick J. Toomey, a conservative Republican House incumbent, than he did from Democratic nominee Hoeffel, a suburban Philadelphia House member who was not well-known statewide. The Democrats’ ranks of elected officials have swelled ever since, including in the U.S. House delegation, which has reversed from a 12-7 Republican advantage going into the 2006 elections to a 12-7 Democratic advantage coming out of the 2008 campaign.

South Carolina

Incumbent: Jim DeMint (first elected 2004)

2004 Senate Contest: DeMint 53.7 percent, Inez Tenenbaum (D) 44.1 percent (Republican takeover)

2008 Presidential Race Result: McCain 53.9 percent, Obama 44.9 percent

2008 Senate Race Result: Sen. Lindsay Graham (R) 57.5 percent, Bob Conley (D) 42.2 percent

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $1,526,799

DeMint is the more conservative of South Carolina’s two senators, not a bad position for him to be in given South Carolina’s status as one of the nation’s most solidly Republican-leaning states. This fact was borne out by the comfortable victory margins in the state enjoyed in 2008 by McCain for president and Graham for the Senate, in a tough year for the GOP nationally. DeMint, a vocal leader in the party wing calling for a stronger adherence to conservative principles, is a solid early favorite for re-election. Former Democratic Party Chairman Joe Erwin has aspirations for statewide office, but they seem to center on the 2010 race for the governor’s seat held by term-limited Republican Mark Sanford . Both of the state’s Democratic House incumbents hold high-ranking positions — James E. Clyburn as majority whip, John M. Spratt Jr. as Budget Committee chairman — which they are highly unlikely to surrender for a tough challenge against DeMint.

South Dakota

Incumbent: John Thune (first elected 2004)

2004 Senate Contest: Thune 50.6 percent, Sen. Tom Daschle (D) 49.4 percent (Republican takeover)

2008 Presidential Race Result: McCain 53.1 percent, Obama 44.8 percent

2008 Senate Race Result: Sen. Tim Johnson (D) 62.5 percent, Joel Dykstra (R) 37.5 percent

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $3,730,617

Democratic activists would love to make a serious run at Thune, whose narrow upset of Daschle, then the Senate’s minority leader, was strongly backed by the Bush White House and the Senate Republican leadership. At the least, Democrats want to keep Thune from running up a big margin that would burnish his image as a Republican rising star, and the incumbent has built up his campaign treasury as though expecting a tough race. But the Democrats appear to lack a high-profile challenger. Daschle, who has shown no interest in a rematch, is reportedly to be nominated by Obama for secretary of Health and Human Services. Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin , the state’s sole House member, is highly popular and is considered having strong statewide potential, but is seen as having her eye on the 2010 race for the governor’s office held by term-limited Republican Michael Rounds .

Utah

Incumbent: Robert F. Bennett (first elected 1992)

2004 Senate Contest: Bennett 68.7 percent, R. Paul Van Dam (D) 28.4 percent

2008 Presidential Race Result: McCain 63.1 percent, Obama 33.9 percent

2006 Senate Race Result: Sen. Orrin G. Hatch (R) 62.4 percent, Pete Ashdown (D) 31.1 percent

Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $259,592

Here’s a good measure of the strength of the Republican clout in Utah, where Bennett is a clear favorite to win a fourth Senate term: McCain defeated Obama in Utah by nearly 30 percentage points — even though the GOP nominee’s vote share was 9 points less than Bush’s 72 percent landslide in 2004. Bennett will turn 77 in September 2010 but has given no indication he is thinking about retirement. The only Democrat with a significant statewide profile is Rep. Jim Matheson , easily elected this year to a fifth term as Utah’s only Democratic member of Congress, but it seems highly unlikely that he’d give up the House seat he has worked so hard to secure for an underdog Senate bid against Bennett.

Bob Benenson, Greg Giroux, Rachel Kapochunas, Marie Horrigan, Emily Cadei, Annie Johnson, Leah Nylen and Michael Teitelbaum contributed to this story.