CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Jan. 5, 2009 – 5:43 a.m.
GOP, Dem Strategists Eye Closest ‘08 House Races for 2010 Targets
By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff
Democratic and Republican House campaign strategists already are plotting for the 2010 midterm elections, as the necessities of early candidate recruitment and fundraising have essentially obliterated the old-fashioned concept of an “off-election” year. The targeting decisions made by these party officials will be influenced by the results of the elections held two months ago, and what lessons they can glean from the outcomes.
Special attention will be paid, not surprisingly, to the closest races of 2008. The aim on both sides is to field top-flight candidates in 2010 who can win districts that narrowly eluded their party’s grasp last November.
The roster of the closest races appears to provide some obvious targets for the Republicans, who are striving to rebound in 2010 after losing a combined 54 seats in the past two election cycles — 21 in the fall 2008 elections alone — and falling deeply into the House minority. Republicans were on the losing side of the lion’s share of close House races, according to a CQ Politics analysis of the official election returns in all 435 districts.
Democrats prevailed in seven of the nine closest House general elections of 2008. Expanding out a bit, there were 27 House races — 6 percent of the total membership — that were decided by less than 5 percentage points: The Democrats were victorious in 17 of those contests and the Republicans in 10.
In all but one of the 13 closest House races, the winners were non-incumbents. They will not hesitate to begin raising money and making other preparations for the next elections. A House member’s toughest re-election race often is his or her first one, so most of these narrow first-time victors will be vigorously challenged in two years.
It must be noted, though, that a close race in one election cycle is not a guarantee that the next contest will be as close.
Of the 10 closest races by percentage margin in 2006, three — all Republican-held seats — flipped parties in 2008: North Carolina Rep. Robin Hayes lost a rematch with Democrat Larry Kissell and Democratic candidates won the seats left open by narrow 2006 GOP winners Heather A. Wilson and Deborah Pryce.
But the seven other seats won very narrowly in 2006, four by Democrats and three by Republicans, were retained by the incumbent party in the 2008 elections — and in every case, the winning margin was much more comfortable than it was two years earlier.
That was certainly the case in the districts that hosted the two closest races in 2006. Democrat Joe Courtney that year unseated Republican Rep. Rob Simmons in Connecticut’s 2nd District by a razor-thin margin of three-hundredths of 1 percentage point, but blew out to a 33-point margin over a much weaker Republican opponent in 2008. In Florida’s 13th District, Republican Vern Buchanan defeated Democrat Christine Jennings by two-tenths of a percentage point in a 2006 open-seat race, then won the 2008 rematch by 18 points.
Here’s a look at the 10 closest House races of the 2008 general election. The contests are organized in terms of percentage-point margin, with the district listed first and the winner identified parenthetically.
The 10 Closest House Races of 2008
1) Virginia’s 5th District (Democrat Tom Perriello won by 0.2 percentage points, defeating Republican Rep. Virgil H. Goode Jr.)
Perriello’s upset of Goode, who was seeking a seventh term, gave Democrats control of a south-central Virginia district that the incumbent had dominated during a tenure that took him from conservative Democrat to independent and finally to Republican. Goode requested a recount that made only minor revisions to the bottom-line totals.
Perriello, whose background is in human rights and faith-based organizations, showed some bipartisan appeal in winning a district that backed Republican John McCain over Democrat Barack Obama by 51 percent to 48 percent in the presidential contest. Given that Perriello’s win was one of a few mild upsets, he should face serious GOP opposition in 2010. But Perriello will be well-positioned to win a new term if Virginia — where Obama won statewide — continues to trend Democratic and if the freshman congressman carves out a centrist voting record and organizes a responsive constituent service operation.
2) Louisiana’s 4th District (Republican John Fleming won by 0.4 percentage points to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Jim McCrery)
Fleming, a physician and businessman, outran Democratic local prosecutor Paul Carmouche to win a conservative-leaning district in and around Shreveport where McCrery had easily won since his first election in 1988. Carmouche was much stronger than the candidates Democrats had typically fielded against McCrery, and Fleming won by just 350 votes in what was the closest House race in terms of raw vote margin. His percentage margin of victory was larger than that of Perriello, who won his race by 727 votes, because the Louisiana election — held in early December as a result of delays in the primary schedule caused by Hurricane Gustav in September — had a low voter turnout.
3) California’s 4th District (Republican Tom McClintock won by 0.5 percentage points to succeed retiring Republican Rep. John T. Doolittle)
McClintock, a state senator, edged Democrat Charlie Brown, who had nearly defeated Republican Doolittle two years earlier in an area of northeastern California that typically leans strongly Republican. The GOP brand in the district was damaged by ethics questions raised about Doolittle’s past ties to convicted influence peddler Jack Abramoff. Without that baggage, McClintock should be expected to win more handily in two years in a district that backed McCain over Obama by 54 percent to 44 percent.
4) Alabama’s 2nd District (Democrat Bobby Bright won by 0.6 percentage points to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Terry Everett)
Bright, a conservative Democrat, combined an urban base as mayor of the state capital of Montgomery with personal roots in the southeastern Alabama district’s rural areas to narrowly defeat Republican state Rep. Jay Love. Despite the political strength exhibited by Bright, the usually strong Republican leanings in the district made his victory an upset, and he will be a top target of House Republican strategists in 2010.
5) Ohio’s 15th District (Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy won by 0.8 percentage points to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce)
Kilroy, an elected commissioner in the county that contributes most of the population in the Columbus-based district, narrowly beat Republican state Sen. Steve Stivers in 2008, two years after she fell short against GOP incumbent Pryce in a race that was even closer than this one.
Kilroy’s declaration of victory was delayed by legal battles over the counting of provisional ballots, which put off a final vote count until Dec. 7, 33 days after the election.
6) Maryland’s 1st District (Democrat Frank Kratovil Jr. won by 0.8 percentage points to succeed Republican Rep. Wayne T. Gilchrest, who had been defeated in the Republican primary)
Kratovil, a county prosecutor, defeated conservative Republican state Sen. Andy Harris nine months after Harris unseated Gilchrest, the more moderate nine-term Republican incumbent, in the primary. A hard-hitting primary campaign by Harris that was vocally backed by the conservative group Club for Growth alienated Gilchrest, who ultimately crossed party lines to endorse Kratovil. That helped the Democrat capture a longtime Republican stronghold that handily favored McCain for president.
7) Idaho’s 1st District (Democrat Walt Minnick won by 1.2 percentage points, defeating Republican Rep. Bill Sali)
Minnick, a businessman and centrist Democrat who ran for the U.S. Senate in 1996, had an image of low-key probity that was a strength against the conservative and controversial Sali. The incumbent, who had a confrontational image that alienated even a number of Republican activists, had been narrowly elected in 2006. His loss to Minnick was an embarrassing setback for the GOP in a district in which McCain took 62 percent of the presidential vote. But that could make this western Idaho Republican bastion a tough Democratic hold in 2010.
8) New York’s 29th District (Democrat Eric Massa won by 1.9 percentage points, defeating Republican Rep. John R. “Randy” Kuhl Jr.)
Massa, a Navy veteran and former Pentagon aide, won a rematch with Kuhl, whom the Democrat held to a 3-point victory margin as a first-time candidate in 2006. Though New York is one of the nation’s most strongly Democratic-leaning states, the 29th — which takes in suburbs of Rochester and much of the largely rural region along the state’s border with Pennsylvania — is more friendly to Republicans than the state at-large. So Massa can expect a competitive contest in 2010.
9) Michigan’s 7th District (Democrat Mark Schauer won by 2.3 percentage points, defeating Republican Rep. Tim Walberg)
Schauer, a state senator, unseated one-term Republican incumbent Walberg in a southern Michigan district that backed President Bush in 2004 but supported Obama this year. The conservative Walberg’s 2006 Republican primary victory over moderate incumbent Rep. Joe Schwarz was an upset, and his 4-point general election win that year over a little-known Democrat suggested vulnerability that prompted Democratic officials to go all out to recruit an experienced challenger in Schauer.
10) California’s 44th (Republican Rep. Ken Calvert won re-election by 2.4 percentage points, defeating Democrat Bill Hedrick)
Though this race did not exactly have a cliffhanger margin, it did come unexpectedly close to producing a shocking upset. Calvert, who secured a ninth House term, had won his previous two races by 23 points in 2006 and 27 points in 2004. His narrow win over Hedrick no doubt was aided by Obama’s narrow victory in a southern California district that includes a small part of Orange County, which leans strongly Republican, but a larger slice of Riverside County that is more friendly to Democrats.
Comments
Though a bigger electoral margin in 08, Louisiana-02 will definitely be on top of DCCC target list for 2010, don't you think?
If the D gubernatorial nominee of CA in '10 performs strongly (e.g. either winning or barely losing) in County Riverside and Northeast, Calvert and McClintock may just find themselves ejected from their supposedly safe seats indeed.
I've got Kathy Dahlkemper of Pennsylvania-3 as number ten instead of Calvert. See the site of the California Sec. of State. Commenting on the comments: I agree that Louisiana-2 is the most likely of all seats to revert to the Democrats in 2010. Even Jefferson (with all his baggage) would have won in 2008 if the hurricane hadn't delayed the date of the general election. I think the only way McClintock can lose California-4 in 2010 is in a primary. Now that he's won this conservative Republican district, he's probably got to goof in a major way to lose it. I do agree that Ken Calvert is not a sure winner next time. Other veteran California Republicans who may well be added to the Democrat target list for 2010 are Brian Bilbray of the 50th district and Dan Lungren of the 3rd. I believe they'd make that list before McClintock.
Ken, Thanks for writing. The California Sec/State's Statement of the Vote gives Calvert 129,937 (51.19%) and Hedrick 123,890 (48.81%), for a difference of 2.38%. As for PA-03, which I have as the 11th closest House race, the Pennsylvania Sec/State figures give Dahlkemper 146,846 (51.24%) and English 139,757 (48.76%), for a difference of 2.47% Sincerely, Greg Giroux, CQ Politics
Thanks, Greg. I'm sure you're more on top of this than I am. I had accepted the Calif. Sec. of State's report for info as of Nov. 26 and the totals for both Calvert and Hedrich were fewer than what you have and with a 51.8-48.2 edge for Calvert. So they must have found more votes somewhere. It would be good for junkies like me to be able to see the final results for all congressional districts nationwide all in one place. Maybe that's somewhere now or will eventually come.
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