Baton Rouge pollster Bernie Pinsonat said Vitter’s efforts have resonated with Louisiana’s electorate. According to Pinsonat, the massive spending bills moving through Congress since Obama took office Jan. 20 are fodder for Vitter, as he revives the image of a conservative firebrand that he cultivated during stints in the Louisiana House from 1992 to 1999 and the U.S. House from 1999 through 2004.

Jeff Crouere, a conservative political commentator and host of the New Orleans radio talk show Ringside Politics, said timing may be working in Vitter’s favor, too. “Vitter benefited from having the scandal occur in the middle of his term,” Crouere said. “Every day since then, he’s been trying to improve his image.”

Crouere noted that Vitter stayed on stride earlier this year when some critics — portraying his socially conservative stance as hypocritical in light of the sex scandal — gained media attention by promoting Stormy Daniels, a porn star, as a potential challenger in next year’s Senate race.

Vitter will not be able to avoid all discussion of his personal foibles, though. While Vitter himself was never highlighted by prosecutors, there were numerous tawdry revelations during the trial of Deborah Palfrey, who ran the escort service and was labeled in the press as the “D.C. Madam.” The scandal had a tragic coda in May 2008 as Palfrey committed suicide after her conviction on charges of abetting prostitution.

New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez , chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for the current election cycle, has indicated that Vitter will be a top target in 2010. Given the overall trend favoring Republicans in Louisiana, it is unlikely that Democratic strategists would mention him so prominently if they did not believe he is still bruised from the scandal.

Scott Jordan, a spokesman for the Louisiana Democratic Party, is confident that his party will have a strong candidate. He contends that the election will be a referendum on the scandal, and also argues that Vitter’s policy differences with Obama — notably his opposition to the stimulus legislation and the expansion of the main federal health insurance program for children — will ultimately hurt him rather than help him politically.

“People are outraged. We’re still trying to rebuild from the hurricanes, we’re desperately in need of rebuilding our infrastructure, we’re last in education and last in health care,” Jordan said. “He’s only interested in blocking President Obama’s policy initiatives. That’s not doing anything constructive for the people of Louisiana.”

Democrats’ Slate: Still Blank

Yet so far, only two prominent Democrats have been mentioned as possible challengers, and it is unclear whether either will run.

These prospects are third-term Rep. Charlie Melancon , who currently is the only Democrat in the state’s eight-member U.S. House delegation, and Jim Bernhard, a major Democratic Party fundraiser and CEO of the Baton Rouge-based Shaw Group, a company that provides construction, engineering and other services, specializing in energy-related projects.

Melancon — a co-chairman of the influential Blue Dog caucus of fiscally conservative House Democrats — won a close 2004 race for the 3rd District seat left open by the retirement of veteran Republican Rep. W.J. “Billy” Tauzin. He has since gained political security and did not even draw a Republican opponent in his 2008 election.

That has led to observations that Melancon is unlikely to give up a safe House seat to challenge Vitter in a bruising campaign that the Democrat likely would enter as an underdog.

“ Charlie Melancon is a fine guy and would be a strong candidate, but I don’t see any indication that he would be interested,” said Bob Mann, a Louisiana State University (LSU) professor who served as a senior aide to Breaux in the Senate and to Democrat Kathleen Babineaux Blanco during her 2004-08 term as governor. “I don’t sense that he’s got the appetite.”

As for Shaw, he has a lot of money, but his potential as a political candidate is untested, said Kirby Goidel, who teaches mass communication and political science at LSU.

The Democrats’ recent setbacks in Louisiana politics could make it even harder for the party to recruit a top-tier challenger to take on Vitter, Mann stated.

“The Democrats have nobody,” Mann said. “I’ve never seen the Democratic Party this unorganized and poorly led. It’s like there’s been a unilateral disarmament — no message, no coherence.”

Conservatives’ Consternation

For his part, Vitter said he intends to work with the Obama administration on areas of mutual agreement, such as legalizing the reimportation of prescription drugs. This is a position, opposed by most GOP senators, that Vitter has long championed. But, Vitter added, he won’t flinch from going head-to-head with the administration as he sees fit.

“If a big piece of legislation like the stimulus will do more harm than good in terms of dramatically increasing the national debt, then ‘no’ is the right answer,” Vitter said. “But I think folks like me also have an obligation to set out clear alternatives.”

Vitter laid out his own legislative agenda in January, on the first day of the current 111th Congress, when filed 34 bills and resolutions on issues that include abortion, public prayer, home schooling, drugs, the death penalty and illegal immigration. His proposals also include elimination of automatic pay increases for members of Congress and establishment of congressional term limits. Soon after, he was one of only two senators to vote against Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton’s nomination as the Obama administration’s secretary of State.

Yet this flurry of conservative message-making by Vitter hasn’t allayed the qualms that some conservatives have held about him since his scandal hit the headlines.

Jay Dardenne, Louisiana’s popular secretary of state, said he is “getting a lot of encouragement” from both his fellow Republicans and people outside the party to mount a primary challenge. Although Democrats have struggled in Louisiana of late, Dardenne expects that they will “have a very well-funded candidate, no matter who it is,” making it important for the Republicans to present their strongest possible candidate.

Dardenne said that Vitter’s potential vulnerability in a general election “has led to some concern on my part” and will factor into his decision on whether to run. But Dardenne said he is “simply listening at this point.”

Tony Perkins, a prominent Louisiana social conservative who heads the Family Research Council in Washington, D.C., also said he has been urged to run in the Senate primary. Perkins — who served with Vitter in the state House and was an unsuccessful U.S. Senate primary candidate in 2002 — gives Vitter a “50-50” chance at re-election and said it is unlikely conservatives will overlook the scandal.

“He made some bad decisions and there are consequences,” Perkins said. “People want to know, ‘Is that a closed chapter in your life?’ I don’t know how you address that. I don’t think you can.”

While Perkins is not ruling out a campaign, he said he is “not strongly inclined to do it at this point,” as he would need to be sure that he had a strong shot at winning.

“I’m not eager to make a move,” Perkins said. “I’m listening... I’d just as soon see David stay there. I don’t have a burning passion to run against him.”

Crouere contends that Vitter is in a good position to avoid a serious primary challenge, saying, “I would be real surprised if Jay Dardenne or Tony Perkins would enter the race,” he said.

One other Republican, former U.S. Rep. John Cooksey, has gotten some attention as a possible primary challenger to Vitter. Cooksey — who also competed in the U.S. Senate primary in a 2002 race ultimately won by Democratic incumbent Mary L. Landrieu — was reported by the Louisiana-based BayouBuzz Web site to be “very interested” in running against Vitter.

Jindal, who has been popular during his short time as governor, has not formally endorsed Vitter, but did attend a fundraiser for the senator’s campaign in December. Vitter reported more than $2 million in cash on hand in his treasury as of Dec. 31, and said he would be “well beyond that this quarter.”

John Cornyn of Texas, who heads the party’s national Senate campaign effort as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, indicated this week that the national GOP would support Vitter.

In the meantime, Vitter will continue to take his message around the state as he tries to reconnect with his conservative base, said Pearson Cross, a political science professor at the University of Louisiana-Lafayette.

“He’s tentatively, patiently and assiduously repairing those lines of communication,” Cross said. “And he’s got the time and money to do it.”