CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
– DEFENSE
March 12, 2009 – 8:05 p.m.
Is Iran Pursuing Nuclear Weapons? Key Administration Officials Differ
By Josh Rogin, CQ Staff
President Obama’s top military and intelligence advisers disagree on the question of whether Iran is intentionally pursuing nuclear weapons, leaving lawmakers confused about what to believe.
Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and a hold-over from the Bush administration, said in no uncertain terms Wednesday that he believes Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons and that its government has made that decision.
“I believe that Iran is on a path to develop nuclear weapons,” Mullen told members of Young Professionals in Foreign Policy, a Washington based nonprofit organization focused on professional development, “We can debate the timeline, but it’s very clear to me that that’s their path and that’s what their leadership is about.”
Mullen’s comments on Iran come only one day after Adm. Dennis C. Blair , President Obama’s new director of national intelligence, gave the opposite analysis, saying he believed Iran had not made the decision to pursue a nuclear weapons capability.
“We assess that Iran has not yet made that decision,” Blair told the Senate Armed Services Committee March 10, speaking on behalf of the entire intelligence community.
Blair was referring to Iran’s potential decision to take their vast stockpiles of low-enriched uranium, which is not suitable for nuclear weapons, and refine them into highly-enriched uranium, the kind needed for nuclear bombs.
Based on differing intelligence estimates, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon sometime between 2010 and 2015, Blair said, although he maintained that the Iranian government is not trying to do so.
“Whether they develop a nuclear weapon which could then be put in [a] warhead I believe is a separate decision which Iran has not made yet,” Blair testified.
The conclusions in the last National Intelligence Estimate, which stated Iran had halted its nuclear weapons design and development programs by 2007, are “still valid,” he added.
The Muddled Middle
Top military- and intelligence-minded lawmakers noted the discrepancy and urged the two senior administration officials to get on the same page.
“Absolutely it’s a problem,” remarked Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin , D-Mich., saying that without better information, he would have to side with the intelligence community’s assessment.
Levin called on the two to meet and share the evidence each used to reach their separate conclusions.
“I think it would be better for everybody if they work it out or state clearly where the differences lie,” Levin said.
Sen. Dianne Feinstein , D-Calif., chairwoman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, declined to say which view lines up with her own analysis.
“You have one admiral saying one thing and one admiral saying another, I’m not going to get into the middle,” Feinstein said.
Armed Services ranking Republican John McCain , R-Ariz., agreed with Mullen that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons capabilities.
“Iran’s nuclear ambitions pose a large and enduring problem to our interests,” McCain said at the hearing.
Mullen made waves earlier this month when he said Iran had enough fissile material to make a nuclear bomb. He later clarified those remarks, specifying that he was referring to low-enriched uranium, which is not weapons-grade.
Blair noted that distinction and also noted that Iran’s known stockpiles of low-enriched uranium are currently under the safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
However, “The current safeguards inspections are unable to determine whether Iran is operating gas centrifuges in secret,” the Institute for Science and International Security wrote in an issue brief Thursday, “It is also important not to downplay Iran’s steadily accumulating stockpile of low enriched uranium.”
Adam Graham Silverman contributed to this story.




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