Taking Aim

The NRSC has had its sights trained on Dodd since news broke last June regarding alleged preferential treatment he received in a mortgage deal with Countrywide Financial. Since then, Dodd has come under increasing scrutiny for his ties to the financial industry and investigations into his purchase of a vacation home in Ireland.

Voters back home are also unhappy with Dodd for relocating to Iowa for much of 2007 as part of his unsuccessful run for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Dodd’s approval ratings have plummeted as a result. The latest poll, released by Quinnipiac University Polling Institute March 10, showed Dodd in a statistical dead heat with Republican Rob Simmons. Simmons announced Monday that he would challenge Dodd.

The poll results “speak volumes of how vulnerable Dodd is right now” said Gary L. Rose, chairman of the Department of Government and Politics of Sacred Heart University in Fairfield, Conn. Republicans, he said, “smell blood, there’s no question.”

Rose, who has written several books on Connecticut politics and government, said he expected the AIG issue to continue to be germane in the 2010 race, but more damaging is how it plays into a larger critique of Dodd’s judgment and ties to financial interests.

“It’s like one thing after another and eventually you put it all together and [Republicans] have some issues here they can certainly exploit,” he said.

The open question among observers is whether any of the Republicans currently eyeing the race have the political chops to unseat the longtime incumbent.

Republicans’ recruiting efforts, not to mention Dodd’s drop in the polls, succeeded in drawing Simmons into the race.

Simmons told The Day, of New London, Conn, on March 17, “I never felt I would have the opportunity to run for the Senate until recently, when I began focusing on the performance of our senior senator.”

But Democrats and others have questioned Simmons’ strengths as a candidate, given his loss to Rep. Joe Courtney in 2006. Local reporters have noted that Simmons has yet to set up a Web site, and made his announcement via an e-mail to the Associated Press, though he does have plenty of time to ramp up his campaign infrastructure.

Neither is it obvious that Simmons has the proven fundraising ability to match Dodd’s firepower. Simmons raised a respectable $3.1 million in his competitive 2006 race, but Dodd has the ability to marshal a wide array of out-of-state funders and tap well-heeled corporate and financial donors. And Dodd -- well aware he is in for a tough race -- is already ramping up his campaign operations, one Democratic operative said.

Simmons, moreover, is unlikely to have the Republican field to himself. Two other Republicans — state Sen. Sam Caligiuri and Tom Foley, the former ambassador to Ireland — are likely to jump in the race. CNBC host Larry Kudlow has also not ruled out running.

Dodd led both Kudlow and Caligiuri in the March Quinnipiac poll, but did not clear 50 percent in either match-up.

The Republican party has indicated it will not try to clear the field for one candidate, though a competitive primary could drain resources. Republican party officials have said, however, that they expect the primary to be fairly congenial, with the focus squarely on Dodd.

Foley, a businessman and longtime Republican fundraiser, has the ability to pull in large sums of money both from donors and his own coffers. What he lacks, said Rose, is name recognition. Simmons, Caligiuri and Kudlow also trail well behind Dodd in name recognition.

Caligiuri could be a “sleeper candidate,” Rose said, particularly if ethics is the key issue in the race. Caligiuri successfully took over as mayor of Waterbury in 2001 after his predecessor was arrested for molestation.

“When the name Caligiuri comes up he’s perceived really as a reformer,” Rose said.

In the end, observers say Dodd’s fate is inexorably tied to the economic recovery, and whether he can convince voters that he is part of the solution rather than part of the problem. Democrats are optimistic, predicting that Dodd will play a prominent role supporting President Obama’s economic agenda and, ultimately, promoting a financial recovery.

Dodd has “been working hard at an extremely tough assignment — dealing with the Banking Committee in the midst of one of our worst recessions,” said Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin of Illinois. “I think at the end of the day that he’ll be just fine.”

Kathleen Hunter contributed to this story.