CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Updated March 31, 2009 – 11:34 p.m.
The Race Goes On in New York 20
By Emily Cadei, CQ Staff
The hotly contested New York House race to succeed Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand was too close to call Tuesday night.
With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican Jim Tedisco by 59 votes out of 155,000 cast — a strong turn-out for a special election.
But state election officials will not be able to determine a winner until as many as 10,000 absentee and overseas ballots are received and counted, which could take up to two more weeks. Overseas ballots are not due to the counties until April 13.
The state board of elections has already scheduled a hearing April 6 to establish a process for canvassing and possibly re-canvassing the votes.
The whisper-thin margin is understandable, given intensity of the campaign pitting Tedisco, a veteran Republican assemblyman, against Democrat and political newcomer Murphy. The most recent independent poll showed a dead heat between the two candidates.
The special election was triggered after Gillibrand was appointed to the Senate to in January to replace Hillary Rodham Clinton , now secretary of State.
The race soon took on characteristics of a national gauge for President Obama’s economic policies and for national Republicans’ performance in the wake of a disastrous 2008 election. Much of the debate has centered on the $787 billion stimulus package (PL 111-5) — whether it is the best way to turn around the district’s depressed economy.
And, like the nation itself, 20th District voters appear divided along party lines.
There are more than 477,000 registered voters in the district, with Republicans enjoying a 70,000 voter registration advantage over Democrats. Independents make up a quarter of the voting population.
Turnout was expected to be a fraction of registered voters, given that it is a special election at an unusual time and there are no national races on the ballot.
Sprinting to the Finish
The results thus far confirm what both sides had been saying for the last several days — every vote counts. To that end, both campaigns and their supporters worked feverishly over the final 48 hours to rally support.
Tedisco campaigned all day and all night on Monday as part of his “Miles for the Middle Class Tour.” He planned to go straight from a series of late-night visits to local diners and other businesses to the polls when they opened at 6 a.m.
Murphy also made his way around the district as part of a “10 County GOTV Blitz.” He was joined by a crowd of Democratic members, including Reps. Paul Tonko , John Hall and Maurice D. Hinchey , who represent neighboring districts, and New York Sens. Charles E. Schumer and Gillibrand. House Majority Whip James E. Clyburn of South Carolina made an appearance with Murphy on March 28.
National Republican leaders, in contrast, stayed away from the campaign in its final days, despite Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele’s claim in early February that the race was a “battle royale” for the party.
Both Steele and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani campaigned with Tedisco last month.
But with momentum shifting to Murphy over the past month — he turned a 12-percentage point gap in the polls in mid-February into a 4-percent lead by mid-March — national Democrats grew increasingly active.
Last week, Obama sent out an e-mail message to supporters endorsing Murphy and Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. recorded a radio ad for the campaign. The Murphy campaign circulated a get-out-the-vote-mailer touting Obama’s endorsement over the weekend.
The Democratic National Committee also spent $10,000 on an ad buy late last week that reiterated Obama’s support for Murphy.
Republicans hit back via the National Republican Congressional Committee, which has outspent the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, $818,000 to $592,000, according to the latest disclosure forms filed with the Federal Election Commission.
And Steele transferred $200,000 from the RNC to the New York Republican Party for help with the election.
Both sides predicted their candidate would come out on top in the end.
New York Republican Party Chairman Joseph N. Mondello expressed confidence that Tedisco would ultimately win the race, despite the fact that the district “was won by a Democrat by 70,000 votes just four short months ago.”
Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee countered, “As votes continue to be counted, we’re confident that Scott Murphy will expand his lead.”
First posted March 30, 2009 11:55 p.m.




Comments
If the Tedisco-Murphy race is a referendum on the Obama stimulus, the independents are clearly in Obamaland. Tedisco started off with a 70,000 vote lead and in a low turnout special election the independents went to the unknown Murphy in numbers strong enough to zero out Tedisco's advantage. That a career politician like Tedisco, the most powerful and visible Republican in the State with homes and followings in the district's population centers of Schenectady and Saratoga Springs can be upset by a first-time unknown candidate should be deeply troubling to the GOP. Nevertheless, on the website of the RCCC, the GOP is touting their success. Stay the course!
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