CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
– POLITICS
April 21, 2009 – 12:13 a.m.
Is O’Malley-Ehrlich Rematch In the Cards for Maryland?
By Leah Carliner, CQ Staff
Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley may have his campaign cue cards close at hand for a possible 2010 rematch with Republican Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., whom he unseated in 2006. But those talking points might not prove necessary this time around.
The 51-year-old Ehrlich has been quiet about his 2010 plans. He hasn’t publicly ruled out a comeback try. But he has to weigh the odds of taking on O’Malley, as the Democratic incumbent, in one of the nation’s most Democratic-dominated states.
Ehrlich is expected to make a decision in the latter part of this year, said Paul Schurick, the former communications director during Ehrlich’s administration and a current communications consultant for Womble Carlyle, the firm for which Ehrlich practices law.
“He’s got the luxury of time,” Schurick said, adding that Ehrlich is probably the only serious potential Republican challenger to O’Malley. Schurick described the political environment in Maryland as “unsettled,” and said that voter frustration with taxes and the expansion of government could make Ehrlich a competitive candidate.
O’Malley, though, has already amassed $2 million for his campaign treasury. The former Baltimore mayor hit some rough patches during his first two years as governor, especially after pressing for a tax increase to address a state budget shortfall, but polls have shown more Marylanders approve than disapprove of his job performance.
Ehrlich certainly has plenty of experience at winning elections. He was just 28 years old in 1986 when he won a state House seat. He held that seat through 1994, when he was elected to the first of four terms representing Maryland’s 2nd District, a suburban Baltimore constituency, in Congress. His 2002 win in the open-seat race for governor broke an eight-election Democratic winning streak for that office that dated back to 1972.
Ehrlich’s continued status as the star among Maryland Republicans, despite his failed 2006 bid for re-election, is in part by default. The GOP has a very short list of well-known potential candidates in a state where Democrats hold all statewide elected offices, including both U.S. Senate seats; seven of the eight U.S. House seats; and nearly three-quarters of the seats in the state legislature. Barack Obama ’s easy 2008 win over Republican John McCain , with 62 percent of the vote, marked the fifth consecutive election in which the Democrats carried Maryland for president.
The only Republican whose prominence might compare to that of Ehrlich is Michael Steele, who served as lieutenant governor under Ehrlich and ran a vigorous though unsuccessful bid in the 2006 open-seat U.S. Senate race won by Democrat Benjamin L. Cardin . But Steele’s election in January as chairman of the Republican National Committee makes it unlikely that he will be running for public office again anytime soon.
Lee Cowen, a top advisor on Ehrlich’s 2002 campaign, said he wouldn’t write off the possibility that Ehrlich would run against O’Malley next year. Cowen, managing director at the public affairs firm Dutko World Wide, added that Ehrlich might actually be better positioned than he was in 2006, an election year in which the plummeting popularity of President George W. Bush spurred a national anti-Republican trend.
“In 2006 I think a significant part of why O’Malley was able to beat Ehrlich was voters’ discontent with the Bush administration. In 2010, that will be a distant memory,” Cowen said.
But Cowen acknowledged the shallow pool of potential Republican candidates, stating, “If it’s not Bob Ehrlich, then I don’t know who the GOP goes to next.”
That appears more likely than not to be the situation in which the Republicans will find themselves. Thomas F. Schaller, a political science professor at University of Maryland at Baltimore County, said Ehrlich, after pondering the 2010 race, will likely decide not to run, and the state Republican Party would then turn to a fresh face.
“I suspect it will be someone who’s never run before,” said Schaller, who regularly writes columns for the Baltimore Sun.
That description fits Mike Pappas, parliamentarian of the state Republican Party and an officer of the Baltimore County Republican Central Committee, who has launched an exploratory committee for a possible bid for governor.
Also mentioned as a possible contender is Anne Arundel County Executive John R. Leopold, who is known for his fundraising abilities — a quality that could prove particularly necessary for a party that has had money troubles in the past. Leopold, who began his political career in Hawaii before relocating to Maryland, had a long tenure in the state legislature before winning the 2006 race to head the government in Anne Arundel, a county that includes the state capital of Annapolis as well as exurbs of Baltimore and Washington, D.C.




Comments
Erlich will get trounced again. He is a smug Repug. His politics was dirty.
Charm City - you really must be bull headed just like our current Gov. Maryland would be lucky to have Gov. Ehrlich back. Maryland wants and needs him. Open your eyes and play attention to what is happening in Maryland. If O'Malley wins again, we will be screwed for another 4 years.
Maryland wants Erlich back ? Either you are a troll or you are on crack. Erlich, like most republicans turned out to be a disaster when he got elected...hence the reason he got ran out of office. There is a reason why Maryland is a Democratic stronghold. We experimented with Republican/conservative Buffoonery and decided to stick to what works.
What works? Maryland has the 4th highest tax burden in the nation, the 5th highest cost of living and the 6th highest cost of doing business. The annual budget process has been a tragicomedy; "this $1.4 billion tax hike will fix the budget; no, now we need slots and that will do the trick; er, no, we need federal stimulus money..." There is no long-term fiscal strategy, no honesty to come clean with the people of Maryland about how messed up we are, and no desire to make hard choices. Even Doug Duncan, a Democrat, says Maryland is structurally broken. I'm not saying Gov. Ehrlich is the answer, but I am saying that to portray this mess and "what works" is disheartening. Is this the best we can do?
John Leopold?!? I guess news from Baltimore doesn't make its way down to DC! http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/annearundel/bal-md.ar.leopold05mar05,0,752245.story
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