CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
– POLITICS
April 26, 2009 – 10:11 a.m.
Florida Freshman Will Face a GOP Fixture — But Which One?
By Kate Davidson, CQ Staff
Demographic changes and strong turnout for Barack Obama gave Democrats the edge in Florida’s 8th Congressional District last year, when voters ousted four-term incumbent Ric Keller and elected lawyer Alan Grayson , 52 percent to 48 percent.
But the Republican Party long had the upper hand in the Orlando-area district, and the state and national GOP are determined to take it back in 2010.
Two well-known and seasoned Republican politicians — Orange County Mayor Richard Crotty and Daniel Webster, who has held top leadership posts in both state legislative chambers — are weighing whether to challenge Grayson in what bodes as one of the most competitive House races in this mid-term election cycle.
“If there’s any seat in Florida that Republicans not only want to get back but should get back, it’s this seat,” said Republican campaign strategist Adam Goodman.
GOP’s Household Names
Crotty’s tenure in his current position, the equivalent of county executive, began in 2001 when he was appointed to finish the term of Republican Mel Martinez in an office then known as Orange County chairman. Martinez left to serve as secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the administration of President George W. Bush , won a U.S. Senate seat in 2004 and has decided not to seek re-election to that office in 2010.
Crotty, whose title was later changed to “mayor” of Orange County, was elected to a full term in the non-partisan position with 73 percent of the vote in 2002, and was re-elected with 70 percent in 2006. Before that, he served nine years as a county property appraiser and 14 years in the Florida legislature.
Crotty, who reaches the term limit in his local office this year, said he is seriously considering entering the House race, and plans to make final decision by July 4. He said he is considering whether he wants to go start at the bottom of the House seniority ladder if elected at the age of 60.
Crotty may also be shadowed by controversies involving the Orlando-Orange County Freeway Authority, which he chairs. The authority has faced allegations of “pay to play” contracting practices and recently instituted a toll increase that has angered some local residents.
Goodman, who worked on Crotty’s campaigns in 2002 and 2006, said the mayor has established broad support and recognition across the county. As an executive, he can also lay claim to a number of popular initiatives, Goodman said, including building up central Florida’s life sciences industry with a new medical school and several new hospitals and research facilities.
Crotty himself voiced ample confidence in his potential as a House candidate, saying, “I think that I would be formidable.”
Webster, who owns a heating and air conditioning repair company, is one of the only Florida politicians in recent memory to hold leadership positions in both chambers of the state legislature.
Webster, who will turn 60 on April 27, was elected to the state House in 1980, and became the first Republican Speaker in more than a century when the GOP took control in 1996. Two years later, he was elected to the state Senate. He ran a short-lived campaign for the U.S. Senate seat left open by retiring Democrat Bob Graham (and ultimately won by Martinez) in 2004, but decided to seek re-election to the state Senate for one more term. He became majority leader in 2006, and retired last year because of a state term limit.
The St. Petersburg Times called Webster “one of Florida’s most respected and courted conservative leaders” when he endorsed former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee for the 2008 Republican presidential nominee. Goodman said that although Webster is not as well known as Crotty, he is seen by many as the “dean of the legislature” who earned high marks from both sides of the partisan aisle.
“Webster’s got the kind of rounded experience that suggests he could hit the ground running wherever he goes,” Goodman said.
Shades of Democratic Blue
But Grayson, who claims to have earned 60 percent among independent voters in his 2008 victory over Keller, said he has no idea why Republicans would think he would be an easy mark in the 2010 election. He said he wasn’t worried about his progressive ideals turning off moderate voters in next year’s contest, contending, “This is now a Democratic district.”
Grayson said voters in the 8th District are less concerned with party affiliation than they are with what their representative can do to help them.
“The fact that they waste all of their time scheming over the next election shows how completely out of touch they are and how unable they are to do anything useful for anyone in central Florida,” he said of state Republicans.
Grayson, who gained attention before he was elected by pursuing lawsuits against defense contractors for alleged Iraq war profiteering, sponsored legislation passed by the House this month that involved a current hot-button issue. The measure would curb employee bonuses at companies receiving federal bailout money.
He has also raised some eyebrows with his outspoken style. He called combative conservative radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh “one sorry excuse for a human being” and he has uploaded videos of himself on YouTube blasting Wall Street executives and financial regulators. He also hired Matt Stoller, a prominent liberal blogger and consultant, as his senior policy adviser earlier this year.
Goodman said Grayson will have to deflect attention from himself to make it through the next election. “His behavior will amaze some and shock everyone else,” he said.
Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida in Tampa, said Grayson has tapped into populist outrage over the economy, an asset that could offset any concerns about his behavior.
Both parties have reason to think they have a shot at this House seat, she said.
An influx of Hispanic residents, including an upswing in the strongly Democratic Puerto Rican population, has contributed to changing demographics in the 8th that have ended the Republicans’ long-running voter registration advantage. The area also has several large universities, where support for Obama’s presidential candidacy was strong.
But voter turnout is typically much lower in midterm elections. “I think the big question mark is, ‘Are college students going to remain engaged?’” MacManus said. “If so, that makes the district a little bit more [Democratic] blue than in the past.”
Neither Crotty nor Webster has begun fundraising or notified the Federal Election Commission of an intention to run.
Grayson, on the other hand, poured $2.7 million of his own money into his 2008 campaign, making him one of 18 House candidates who self-financed more than $1 million in that election cycle. “He’s got money to burn,” MacManus said.
Grayson did not dip into his own pockets during the first quarter of this year as he raised $143,707. His campaign ended the period with more than $300,000 in cash on hand.
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