There is no disputing that the key to Driehaus’ victory was in the 1st’s portion of Cincinnati, a city it shares with the 2nd District.

While Cranley and 2004 Democratic nominee Greg Harris emerged from the city with almost identical leads of about 25,000 votes over Chabot, Driehaus, a moderate from the western part of Cincinnati, racked up a nearly 53,000-vote advantage in the city’s precincts. Chabot roughly matched his past performance outside the city, piling up a roughly 28,000-vote edge.

Analysts who look only skin deep are too simplistic, according to Driehaus.

“It’s more complicated,” he said.

Consider this: For all the talk of increased turnout, only 6,625 more people voted in the 2008 race than the 2004 race. Chabot won 33,000 fewer votes in 2008 than in 2004, while Driehaus outpaced Harris by nearly 40,000 votes in a comparable presidential election year. And in the past, Chabot had fared much better in some black-majority precincts than he did in 2008 – a shift in percentages, not just pure turnout levels.

It’s impossible to know exactly who voted how, but it’s clear that either the electorate was significantly different, past Chabot voters flipped to the Democratic side in large numbers or both.

Chabot says the difference between President George W. Bush ’s 2004 turnout effort at his back and Obama’s 2008 machine in his path was obvious.

It was, he says, a combination of African-American turnout and a failure on the part of Republican nominee John McCain .

“The ’04 campaign was well run at the presidential level on the Republican side and there was a strong get-out-the-vote effort,” he said. “The McCain campaign, to be quite honest, was disorganized and had quite a lackluster get-out-the-vote effort, and it hurt Republicans down the ticket.”

None of that accounts for the difference in the quality of Democratic opposition in 2008 compared with 2006 and 2004.

Whatever the case in Ohio’s 1st – and in the other districts where Democrats in African-American influenced areas took Republican-held seats – there is a perception among many lawmakers and strategists in both parties that a fall-off in African-American turnout could give Republicans a shot to win back a handful of seats.

“There is an assumption that there will be some drop-off in black participation,” said Democratic Rep. Artur Davis , who is running to become Alabama’s first black governor.

He said it remains to be seen whether Obama’s organization, which did well among African Americans and young voters, has permanently altered turnout models.

If there is a significant decline in black participation in the districts in question, Davis said, “it could be hard to put together the winning coalition.”

Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole , who ran the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), said it is not enough for GOP candidates in those districts to hope for lower black turnout.

“It will take a lot more than that,” he said.

The Democrats in those seats will have two years under their belts and all of the advantages of incumbency when they run again. And, he said, it’s not like they were carried across a finish line without making the turn for home on their own.

“They didn’t win without being good candidates,” he said.

Cole thinks Republicans need to do more outreach to minority voters. That’s a “two-fer,” he said. Not only does it open up more opportunities with the minority votes, but “you’ll do better with non-minority voters, as well.” That particularly goes for younger voters, he said.

Democrats Driehaus, Perriello and Kissell — all three of whom represent districts with black voting-age populations of 22 percent or more, according to Bositis — said they are representing all of their constituents and plan to run on their records next year.

“In terms of what’s going to happen in 2010, I think people are going to judge us by our results,” said Perriello, who won by just 727 votes over Goode with Obama and popular Democratic Virginia Sen. Mark Warner leading the way.

“If I could have Obama on the ticket and Warner on the ticket again, I’d take it in a heartbeat,” he said.

Ken Spain, a spokesman for the NRCC, said each race had its own dynamic in 2008 and will again in 2010.

“I don’t think you can really paint them with one broad brush,” he said.

Though turnout is always lower in off-year elections across demographic lines, black participation in the districts such as Chabot’s will be closely watched by both parties.

“It will be a concern for the Democrats to keep black voters activated and to get them to actually turn out for the election,” Bositis said. “On the other hand, I think there will be a big effort made to do that.”

Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen , chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said he met with Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine on Tuesday to discuss a variety of issues, including turnout in the mid-term elections.

Van Hollen said the big concern is what he terms “voters who came out because Obama was on the ballot” — a group that includes both a portion of the African-American electorate and certain non-traditional voters who were drawn to the Obama campaign.

He said that the mid-term election will serve as something of a “report card” for the administration.

“We’re going to be working very closely with the Obama team to involve them in the midterm election,” Van Hollen said. “They understand the stakes.”