Freshman House Democrat Mark Schauer hopes his 2010 race breaks a negative streak in the congressional politics of Michigan’s 7th District. His two immediate predecessors lasted just two years in office before they were ousted by voters.

The good news for Schauer — the former leader of the state Senate’s Democratic minority — is that both of those one-term wonders were Republicans.

Joe Schwarz, a GOP moderate, won an open-seat race after defeating a crowded field of conservative rivals in the 2004 Republican primary. In 2006, he lost a one-on-one primary race with former state Rep. Tim Walberg, one of his 2004 primary opponents. But Walberg’s bruising challenge, backed by attacks against Schwarz by the conservative group Club for Growth, left such hard feelings that Walberg only narrowly defeated a little-known and underfinanced Democratic nominee.

That outcome set him up for his 2008 loss, by just more than 2 percentage points, to the better-known and experienced Schauer, who rode a national tide running in favor of the Democrats and portrayed Walberg as too conservative and too much a supporter of Bush’s unpopular administration.

The not-so-good news for Schauer is that he could face a 2010 rematch bid by Walberg in a district that, while no longer the Republican stronghold it once was, can hardly be described as safely Democratic.

The south-central Michigan district — made up of small cities such as Battle Creek and Jackson, exurbs of Lansing and Ann Arbor, and considerable rural turf — favored Democrat Barack Obama by 52 percent to 46 percent over Republican John McCain in the 2008 presidential contest. But the district went 54 percent to 45 percent for President George W. Bush over Democrat John Kerry just four years earlier.

Schauer, as he did in his 2008 House campaign, has attempted to portray himself as a pragmatic politician. But Walberg, in an interview with CQ Politics, hinted that he would try to turn the tables if he runs again in 2010 by casting Schauer as too apt to support President Obama’s agenda, which he views as too liberal.

“I’d never say never, but we are certainly looking at it,” Walberg said about the 2010 race. “I certainly have to be looking at it when you see what’s going on with this present administration, and the representative that’s there now following in lockstep.”

So far, no potential top-tier Republican challengers have entered the race, and it appears the party is giving Walberg the first right of refusal on a possible rematch.

“If I were a betting man, I would bet Walberg runs again,” said Saul Anuzis, former chairman of the Michigan Republican Party, who came third in the party’s race for Republican National Committee chairman won by Maryland’s Michael Steele earlier this year.

Walberg said that he is in no hurry to make a decision, and would not commit to a timetable. He did say, though, that if his answer is no, he’ll bow out in time for another Republican to be able to make a serious run against Schauer.

Another Republican being mentioned as a possible contender is lawyer Brad Smith, son of former Rep. Nick Smith, who left the seat open to retire in 2004. The younger Smith ran for his father’s seat in the 2004 Republican primary but came in second to Schwarz. Walberg finished third in that contest.

The 7th District was designed by a state legislature, then controlled by the Republicans, to prolong the House career of the elder Smith, and he won easily in the 2002 race that was the first within the current lines. But Smith’s 2004 decision to abide to a campaign promise of serving no more than a dozen years sparked the instability that ultimately resulted in the GOP ceding the seat.