CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
– POLITICS & ELECTIONS
May 12, 2009 – 10:49 a.m.
Crist’s Senate Bid Flips CQ Ratings on Florida Races
By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff
Florida Republican Gov. Charlie Crist announced Tuesday that he will run in 2010 for the state’s open Senate seat and forgo a bid for re-election as the state’s chief executive — a move that has prompted CQ Politics to change its ratings on both the governor’s and Senate races.
The race for the Senate seat, rated Tossup before this morning’s announcement, is now rated Leans Republican. Crist has enjoyed strong approval ratings in Florida polls since his election as governor in 2006 — a leading factor in the effort by top Republican officials to persuade him to run for the seat left open by first-term Republican Sen. Mel Martinez , who announced Dec. 2 that he would not seek re-election.
The governor’s race, assumed to be Crist’s for the asking had he decided to seek a second term, is now up for grabs. CQ Politics, which had rated the race Republican Favored, has changed the rating to Tossup.
Texas Sen. John Cornyn , who orchestrates the GOP’s national Senate campaign for 2010 as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), issued an endorsement immediately after Crist released a written statement confirming his candidacy.
Also, Crist’s name is much more recognized statewide than any of the already announced or prospective Senate candidate — including Rep. Kendrick B. Meek , widely regarded as the early front-runner for the Democratic Senate nomination, and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, who announced his candidacy last week and now faces a choice of challenging Crist for the nomination or switching to another race.
Rubio spoke with Cornyn by phone Monday night and came to Washington, D.C., Tuesday to meet with him. “Maybe there’s an alternative that would allow him to continue his desire to serve the people of Florida,” said Cornyn, who described his job, in part, as “trying to defuse potentially nasty primaries.”
But Rubio’s initial reaction showed he is not ready to back down. “Let the debate begin,” he proclaimed in response to Crist’s entry.
Crist’s announcement ends an extended wait for him to decide which of the two key statewide races he would enter. Many Republicans viewed Crist as their strongest Senate prospect after his predecessor as governor, Republican Jeb Bush, stated in January that he would not run. But Crist stuck to his determination to withhold any announcement until the Florida legislature adjourned for the year, which it did last Friday.
Crist, in his statement Tuesday morning, said, “As governor, each day I will continue to focus on fighting for all Floridians. And if I am given the honor of serving as their senator, I will take that fight for the people of this state I love so dearly to the halls of Congress.”
It remains to be seen whether Crist will have a clear field for the August 2010 Republican primary. Rubio, who is seen by supporters as one of the party’s rising stars, moved to pre-empt Crist’s expected announcement by declaring last week his own intention to seek the Senate GOP nomination.
Crist does have critics on the Republican right, because he endorsed President Obama’s economic stimulus bill, which drew almost unanimous Republican opposition in Congress, and because he is viewed as relatively moderate on social issues. Some conservatives might be angered if they view the party brass as trying to muscle Rubio out of the Senate race or otherwise stifle any attempt to generate a conservative challenge to him in the primary.
But it appears that the state and Washington establishments will rally around Crist and encourage Rubio to jump into race for the governor — in which he had previously indicated an interest, and for which the GOP is now in search of a top-tier candidate to replace Crist — or another statewide office, such as Attorney General.
NRSC head Cornyn wasted no time in establishing the national party establishment’s preference for Crist in the Senate race.
“While I believe Marco Rubio has a very bright future within the Republican Party, Charlie Crist is the best candidate in 2010 to ensure that we maintain the checks and balances that Floridians deserve in the United States Senate,” Cornyn said in a statement.
State Republican Chairman Jim Greer said yesterday that if the state party deems it appropriate to make an endorsement in the Senate primary, it will be for Crist. Greer noted that Crist would be due that deference because he is the sitting governor.
Crist was touted in Cornyn’s statement as a fiscal conservative who earned an “A” score from the conservative/libertarian Cato Institute “for his efforts to restrain spending and cut taxes last year.”
But job approval polls have consistently shown Crist drawing support across party lines, which Republican strategists see as key to holding the seat in a partisan battleground state that Barack Obama , as the 2008 Democratic presidential nominee, carried with 51 percent to 48 percent for Republican John McCain .
By contrast, the Democrats who have announced their Senate candidacies — four-term House incumbent Meek of the Miami-area 17th District and state Sen. Dan Gelber — are just in the process of introducing themselves to most of the state’s voters.
Crist’s shift to the Senate race opened the door for other candidates to enter the race for governor. State Attorney General Bill McCollum — a former House member who lost Senate bids as the Republican nominee in 2000 and in the Republican primary in 2004 — is among those who have been mentioned as potential candidate.
But Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan of Florida’s 13th District, who had been publicly mulling a bid for governor if Crist moved on — and for the Senate if he didn’t — sent out a press release Tuesday in which he declared his intention to run for House re-election next year while endorsing Crist for the Senate race.
On the Democratic side, state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink — whose office is equivalent to state treasurer, may run for governor. She publicly considered running for Senate following Martinez’ retirement announcement, but stated in January she would run for re-election to her current post.
Jonathan Allen contributed to this story.




Comments
I predict that Crist will at least have to respond to the allegation that he is gay. The new film, "Outrage" will fan the flames and he will need to offer a statement. It will be interesting to see if Rubio uses the outing of Crist in his campaign for the primary.
1. Even without the purported documentary "Outrage" and the accompanying issue(?), Crist's path to the nomination will be anything but a coronation, given the fact that the primary contest is of a CLOSED variety. 2. Among the so-called cabinet officers only Attorneys General Park Trammell in 1912 and Crist in 2006 have been elected governor in the last 98 years. Throw in the fact that a Democrat is in control of the presidency, McCollum, at least on paper, would seem to have a slight edge over Sink, if that match-up were to take place. 3. Though Menendez and his fellow senators may regard the Senate contest as the most important - in their eternal quest for the three-fifths bulwark - for the state party and the rest of the national party, a greater focus may and indeed ought to be placed on the state-level contests. If the Ds manage to secure at least 35% of ONE chamber of the legislature and 2 cabinet posts (with win of governor) or at least 51% of either chamber and 3 posts (without win of governor) that would have at least as much resonance as having 2 senators.
True. Crist was doing well with libertarian voters before. We libertarian Republicans were arguing with our conservative friends that he'd be a great choice. But then he completely blew it two weeks ago by signing the bill to make seat belt law violation a primary offense. Nothing irks libertarians more, than rampant Nanny-statism. Crist has lost all of his potential libertarian supporters in the GOP primary. I've talked to many others, and they're all switching to Rubio. Eric Dondero, Publisher Libertarian Republican
According to Hastings Wyman at Southern Political Report, Jeb Bush may want his old job back, which is why Crist would give up being the chief executive of the 3rd largest state in order to be just 1 of 100 . Are you looking in to this CQ?
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