CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
– POLITICS
May 13, 2009 – 6:30 a.m.
Does GOP Have Pickup Opportunities in the Northeast in 2010?
By Emily Cadei, CQ Staff
With a tough recruiting environment, a dismal record in recent elections, and a large number of districts to contest in 2010, House Republicans could be excused for paying short shrift to the Northeast.
Yet a handful of Republicans in states like New York, Connecticut and New Hampshire already are mounting congressional bids, and those candidates say the party will be missing an opportunity if it ignores moderates like them and districts like theirs.
“If the Republican party wants to be a majority party then they can’t limit themselves to certain parts of the country,” said Connecticut Senate Minority Leader John McKinney, who is considering a run in the 4th District. Contrary to conventional wisdom, which holds the GOP is a dying breed in his corner of America, he said he sees “tremendous opportunity for Republicans in the Northeast.”
Justin Bernier, who announced in March he will challenge Rep. Christopher S. Murphy in Connecticut’s 5th District, agreed. Bernier said while his Republican contacts in Washington, D.C., tended to be “morose” and “depressed,” he didn’t see cause for such pessimism in Connecticut.
“The issues that dogged Republicans in 2006 and 2008” in the state, particularly the war in Iraq, “are not on the front burner the way they were before,” he said. Rather, the leading issues in 2010 are likely to be the economy, government spending, and the national debt, and “right now the Republicans have a better answer on all those issues.”
That’s about the extent of the partisan cheerleading one will hear from these candidates or prospective candidates, who expressed dismay at the growing emphasis on ideological purity within the GOP and said the party desperately needs to embrace a broader range of candidates and ideas to be nationally relevant.
In the meantime, most prefer to paint themselves as change agents rather than Republican loyalists — a logical strategy, given the outsized role of independent voters in the region.
Take New York Assemblyman Greg Ball, a National Republican Congressional Committee recruit in New York’s 19th District who made his challenge to Democratic Rep. John Hall official on May 9. He referred to himself as “independent” and “reform-minded” and boasted that he’s “taken on the Republican political machinery” in New York.
And while Ball, Bernier, McKinney, and John Faso — who lost in his bid for the Republican nomination for the New York’s 20th District special election and may run for the seat in 2010 — all said they would welcome support from the NRCC and the national party, it was an arms-length embrace.
Any party involvement, said Faso, would have to be “on my terms.”
Added McKinney, “The party’s commitment, or lack thereof, is not a consideration in my decision-making.”
Looking for Bright Spots
The recent announcements by Ball and Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, who confirmed he will take on Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter in New Hampshire’s 1st District, represent Republican recruiting successes in the region. Should McKinney, son of longtime former 4th District Rep. Stewart McKinney (1971-87), ultimately decide to take on freshman Democrat Jim Himes — he said he'll decide in June — that would be another bright spot. But there are few others at the moment.
Despite the NRCC's pledge that it is looking to compete everywhere, including the Northeast, many freshmen and sophomore Democrats in potentially competitive districts have yet to attract a credible challenger. They include New York freshmen Michael E. McMahon in the 13th District, Dan Maffei in the 25th and Eric Massa in the 29th, as well as second-term New York Rep. Michael Arcuri in the 24th District and recently seated special election winner Scott Murphy in New York’s 20th. All but Murphy are part of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Frontline program to help shore up the re-election prospects of vulnerable incumbents.
Republicans also have an opening in New Hampshire’s 2nd district after Democratic Rep. Paul W. Hodes opted to run for the Senate in 2010. The party hasn’t wrangled a top-tier candidate there yet, though former Republican Rep. Charlie Bass is considering a run, and several other Republicans have expressed interest.
A Republican aide said the party is holding a number of conversations with potential candidates in these districts, singling out Richard Hanna, who lost to Arcuri 48 percent to 52 percent in 2008, as likely to seek a re-match. The aide asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak about unofficial election deliberations.
Democrats, eager to burnish their own recruiting credentials and scare off potential Republican challengers, say their close victory in New York’s 20th is a sign they still have momentum from the 2008 election while Republicans are still lacking a message that resonates with voters.
That victory, said Rep. Bruce Braley of Iowa, the DCCC’s vice-chair for candidate services, “gives hope to a lot of [Democrats] who are challenging incumbents.”
But while the outcome of the special election may hearten Democrats, prospective GOP candidates said the setback was not a deterrent to running because special elections have different dynamics than regular contests. A far bigger disincentive, said one Republican strategist and former leadership aide, is the party’s minority status.
This strategist, who asked not to be named so as to speak candidly, called the job of being a minority congressman “unenviable,” and noted, “The likelihood of the Republicans winning back the House in one term or two terms are pretty close to zero, short of some pretty big development.”
Indeed, several prospective Republican recruits have announced recently that they will run for Congress this cycle. One, Arizona state Rep. Bill Konopnicki, bluntly told a local paper last week, “I’m not interested, quite honestly, in going and being in the minority party.”
Add President Obama’s enduring popularity and his fundraising prowess and the strategist said that even with historical trends pointing toward GOP gains — the party out of power tends to gain seats in off-year elections — Republican recruitment is likely to be slow going.
The strategist singled out Illinois, Delaware and Connecticut as states that “Republicans should not have any business playing in,” but which could see big victories in the GOP Senate and possibly House.
Ultimately, McKinney said it will be up to him and his GOP counterparts in the region to prove their political viability. The NRCC, he acknowledged, “is going to look at where they can win ... Whether it’s in New England or any other part of the country, candidates who look like they can win will get support.”
Comments
Correction; Justin Bernier will be running against Dem Rep JIM HINES, the one who BEAT CHRIS MURPHY in 08 (this article still names Murphy as the incumbent .... if so it would be a contentious primary..)
The story is correct: Justin Bernier is running against incumbent Chris Murphy in CT-5. John McKinney is looking at challenging Freshman Rep Jim HIMES in CT-4
Connecticut is on it's way to dispatching Senator Chris Dodd. The grass roots has caught fire and Dodd is in big trouble. One of the groups repsponsible for his slippage in the polls is Dump Dodd 2010. It's web site is www.dumpchrisdodd.com But more than anything else, it has been Dodd himself who continues to self-implode. He is on a frantic rehabilitation tour all over Connecticut. Saturday, May 16, he hosts a town hall meeting in Derby, CT. Many people plan to be there.
Connecticut has a strong conservative Republican candidate running in the 2nd Congressional District, Daria Novak. She is a former Reagan appointee, who is gaining a national following among people who want to see limited government spending, individual freedoms protected, and a return to principled politics. Her tea party speeches have people excited AND she is challenging the Republican Party good ole' boy network! This Republican can make it!
http://corygardner.com/ No mention of the uprising in Colorado to bring consertives back? How about Cory for Congress in 2010!!
Daria Novak is a breathe of fresh air. Palin Smith has become her unofficial videographer early in the campaign. To see her in action, visit the following two You tube links: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jjt8rCsDqbs http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuGS_lXRQ2k And now watch Joe Courtney lose it when three people wearing Dump Dodd Tee-shirts take over his town hall meeting in Westbrook on Feb. 21, 2009 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Hc5bIM8Tuc Do you believe Joe actually believes what he says? The water bottle says it all!
It's so strange you'd mention Greg Ball in such a, well, legitimate fashion just shortly after Roll Call did the scathing investigation into the numerous scandals surrounding him and his erratic behavior even towards the state Republican party, accusing them even of planting a staffer to have an affair with him. The way he acts towards everyone I doubt that Greg Ball will be able to get the full support of state Republicans, no less Democrats. He has so many scandals he just begs for a few negative ads. That's not even counting his hard right conservatism in what is a moderate, swing district that has been trending Democratic for the better part of a decade. On other fronts, how does Bernier really think he's going to take out Murphy, after in the past two cycles Murphy has proven himself by destroying a 12 term incumbent and then wiping the floor with a well funded state senator. Besides that CT-04, Himes district, has trended very Democrat and is getting more so, Shays was a very strong Republican, fairly liberal, and very good at saying one thing to appeal to local Democrats and voting differently, we all remember how he came out in favor of a withdrawal out of Iraq just weeks before the 06 elections when it looked likely he'd lose and then after winning in an upset he quickly changed his position again. Frank Guinta is another Greg Ball, and its unlikely he'll have the primary to himself. John Stephen looks likely to try again. But his problem is that he's another one of the hardcore conservatives that New Hampshire has continued rejecting in the past. Even Jeb Bradley was a very moderate to liberal Republican and NH Democrats are stronger than they have been in a long, long time.
I can't help but reread that again. It's not just because I like John Hall, but Greg Ball is just so over hyped by the himself and the national party. I just wanted to bring up some of what the Roll Call Article that I referenced before said, so people can know specifically what I was referring to. "So we Googled Greg Ball. He's right, there's an awful lot out there. For a guy who is just 31 years old and in his third year in the Legislature, there are already 267 footnotes on his Wikipedia entry -- that says something about the kind of passions he inflames. "There's controversy surrounding him in the past and there's going to be controversy around him going forward," says Michael Edelman, a Republican consultant and commentator in Westchester County, one of the five counties in the Hudson Valley district Ball is hoping to represent. What kind of stories does Google reveal? Well, for starters, Ball was accused of stalking a former girlfriend, who got a temporary order of protection against him. He's been accused of posting on the Web misleading photographs of an encampment of illegal immigrants in his legislative district. A dead goat was found recently in his front yard -- the work, Ball believes, of Salvadoran gangs who oppose his tough anti-immigration stance -- and he's been sleeping with a 12-gauge shotgun under his bed ever since. And until recently he has been in a vicious blood feud with his political enemies -- who by the way, happen to be fellow Republicans. Oh yes, Ball was also accused of sexually harassing a former Assembly aide. Details of this are scant on the Web, but in his conversation with Roll Call, which borders on the surreal at times, Ball dutifully provides some. The woman, he says, was put up to it by the establishment Republicans who were waging jihad against him. And the bottom line, from his point of view, is that the Assembly Standing Committee on Ethics and Guidance "cleared" him. Which is technically true. On Oct. 20, 2008, the committee issued a letter -- which is available online -- saying an investigation into the accusation found that a violation of the Assembly's Sexual Harassment/Retaliation Policy "was not established." The committee also makes it a point to say that the statute of limitations on the woman's accusations had run out, so the Assembly couldn't have taken any action anyway. A clean exoneration? Ball likes to think so. Google him -- and judge for yourself. "
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