Thompson said candidates often promise they will be independent minded and don’t deliver when they get to Washington, but in Minnick’s case “he has.”

Still, Minnick has joined Democrats on some politically controversial issues, including voting for a bill expanding federal hate crimes laws to include crimes based on sexual orientation (HR 1913). He also supported the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act (PL 111-2), a move that drew criticism from the National Republican Congressional Committee, the party’s House campaign arm. Further, he voted in favor of blocking an investigation into Speaker Nancy Pelosi ’s recent allegations that the CIA mislead her on its interrogation techniques.

Going forward, Minnick faces a series of potentially divisive votes on a climate bill that includes a carbon emissions cap-and-trade program (HR 2454) and an overhaul of union voting procedures known as the “card check” bill (HR 1409).

So far, the Democratic leaders have cut Minnick slack given his district profile. “They may not like the way I vote on a particular bill but they know who I would be replaced with they’re going to like less,” said Minnick.

GOP’s Big Test

Minnick’s voting record so far in 2009 falls short for his one declared Republican challenger, Vaughn Ward, a retired Marine Corps major. He pointed to Minnick’s first House vote, for Pelosi as Speaker.

“He endorsed Nancy Pelosi and her agenda and everything that goes with it,” Ward said, a critique that is sure to be echoed in the general election.

Ward, who declared his candidacy in April, is youthful, articulate, and has a strong political résumé — in addition to his military experience. He worked for the CIA, was a legislative aide to former Republican Sen. Dirk Kempthorne (1993-99), and was the Nevada state director for John McCain ’s presidential campaign. He also has an early endorsement from McCain, via the Arizona senator’s Country First PAC.

But Ward is unknown and untested as a political candidate — and the Republican primary is likely to be a big first test.

“I don’t think anybody will stay out of the race because he’s in it,” LaRocco said.

Other Republicans considered as possible candidates include state Rep. Ken Roberts, the majority caucus chairman, state Rep. Raul Labrador, Idaho Attorney General Lawrence Wasden, and Robert Vasquez, an anti-illegal immigration activist who came in second in the 2006 Republican primary.

Former Rep. Bill Sali, who lost to Minnick by a percentage point in 2008, has made noise about running again but that would likely be met with resistance after his polarizing campaign last time.

The question is whether a competitive primary will open up old wounds between conservatives and moderates. The NRCC hasn’t ruled out intervening since any divisions give Minnick an opening to win over moderate Republicans and independents, as he did in 2008.

Ward, for one, seems conscious of that danger. He believes “a strong primary brings out a strong candidate” but added that his campaign has been making an effort at “bridging the gap and trying to bring Republicans together.”

Republicans are also keenly aware that they need to step up their fundraising after Minnick outspent Sali in 2008, $2.6 million to $1.2 million. The GOP is prepared to make sure that doesn’t happen again and contends more campaign money could make a difference in the outcome.

Ward himself reported raising $50,000 as of March 31 before even announcing his candidacy and came to the nation’s capital in early May to fundraise and meet with the NRCC.

Minnick raised $266,000 in the first three months of the year and reported $225,000 cash on hand.

Idaho Republican Party Executive Director Jonathan Parker said a victorious campaign “will cost at least $2 million,” noting that, “up until very recently was just an outrageous amount.”

Despite the obvious Republican advantages, Parker expects “a tough race.” But, he added, “We do believe it’s a seat we can and will win back in 2010.”