CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
May 30, 2009 – 7:41 a.m.
GOP Dominates in Open Kansas Governor’s Race
By Katie Brown, CQ Staff
It’s a partisan fact of life: with rare exception, Kansas remains one of the most strongly Republican-leaning states, so in the 2010 contest for governor, guess who’s carrying all the firepower?
Interim incumbent Mark Parkinson, a former Republican, moved up from lieutenant governor after Kathleen Sebelius,a popular centrist Democrat who won in 2002 and 2006, resigned to become secretary of Health and Human Services.
But Parkinson has stood by his previous statements that he will not be a candidate for governor next year, disappointing the sizable number of Democrats who believe he would have a solid chance to win.
So far, retiring U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback , the presumed front-runner, and Kansas Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh are trying to knock Parkinson off that pedestal.
Democrats, meanwhile, faced a difficult recruiting chore in any case, as Sebelius was barred by the state’s term-limit law from running again next year.
The next best-positioned Democrat appears to be six-term Rep. Dennis Moore of Kansas’ 3rd District. There was even been some chatter in Kansas Democratic circles that Moore might be appointed as interim lieutenant governor to better position him for a run for governor, before Parkinson picked his chief of staff, Troy Findley, for the position.
“Moore would be the most formidable candidate that the Democrats could put forth against likely Republican nominee Brownback,” said Joe Aistrup, a Kansas State University political science professor.
But Moore, whose centrist posture in his suburban Kansas City district has made him a rare fixture as a Democratic officeholder, has given no indication that he plans to run for anything besides re-election to his House seat.
Findley, who also served as Sebelius’ chief of staff, announced at his May 15 swearing-in ceremony, “I have no intention of being a candidate for any elective office in 2010.” He cited family reasons and a need to focus on pressing state issues as his reasons.
The 2010 election “looks really difficult for Democrats absent of someone with Sebelius’ stature,” said Burdett Loomis, a professor of political science at the University of Kansas, though he added that he is certain that a Democratic candidate will enter the race at some point.
Brownback appears well-positioned to take advantage of the current candidate vacuum on the Democratic side. A product of the socially conservative wing of the state Republican Party, Brownback had not even completed the one House term to which he was elected in 1994 when he defeated interim Sen. Sheila Frahm, a more centrist Republican, in a 1996 special election primary. He went on to win the contest’s general election by a comfortable margin, then scored landslide re-election victories in 1998 and 2004.
And Brownback’s standing among state Republicans appear undamaged by the failure of his short-lived bid for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. A SurveyUSA poll on the 2010 Republican primary matchup for governor, conducted April 7-19, showed Brownback leading by 64 percent to 17 percent for Thornburgh, with 20 percent undecided.
The Democrats’ biggest foothold in Kansas politics — and their hopes for achieving anything approaching competitive parity with the GOP — thus appear to be at serious risk.
Those hopes were fueled by the rise of Sebelius, the daughter of former Ohio Democratic Gov. John J. Gilligan and daughter-in-law of the late Republican Keith Sebelius, who represented a Kansas district in the U.S. House from 1969 to 1981. The Democrats were further emboldened in 2006 when Nancy Boyda, their nominee in the 2nd District House race, unseated five-term Republican Rep. Jim Ryun.
But the Democrats’ fortunes backslid in 2008, a year in which Republican nominee John McCain continued the party’s historic domination of the state’s presidential politics with his 57 percent to 42 percent win over Democratic nominee Barack Obama . That same year, Boyda’s House tenure was cut short after just one term by Republican Lynn Jenkins , then the state treasurer. That left Moore as the only Democrat in the state’s six-member congressional delegation.
The Republican Showdown
Republicans have been anticipating Brownback’s gubernatorial bid for years. Early on in his Senate career, he self-imposed a limit of two full terms and confirmed last December that he would stick to that pledge. While he has not yet officially announced his intention to run for governor, there is virtually no doubt in the Kansas political community that he will.
Thornburgh, who has established his own serious statewide credentials by winning four four-year terms as secretary of state beginning in 1994, sent a message that he is not prepared to yield to Brownback. His campaign’s finance report to the Kansas Government Ethics Commission showed a nest egg of nearly $142,000 cash on hand as of Dec. 31.
Thornburgh is staging an uphill battle, according to Aistrup. “He is running against a sitting United States senator that has been active in the context of the state for a number of years. For him to make a go at it, he will have to make a very strong case that he will be a better governor than Brownback,” he said.
But Brownback is dealing with a balancing act as he carries out his duties as senator while preparing for the GOP primary contest.
For example, Brownback voted to confirm Sebelius as Health and Human Services secretary, even though her support for abortion rights conflicted with his own long-stated opposition to abortion. His action conformed to traditional protocol, as most senators over the years have voted to confirm Cabinet nominees from their home states even when they were members of the opposite party.
But his vote for Sebelius drew rebukes from two of the largest anti-abortion groups in Kansas, Operation Rescue and Kansans for Life, though neither of these groups has withdrawn its longstanding support for Brownback.
Democrats’ Decisions
For the Democrats, any self-starting candidate could have a leg up for the nomination, unless Moore surprises by making a go for governor.
State Sen. Chris Steineger is one Democratic officeholder who has openly expressed an interest in entering the race. After Parkinson moved up to governor, Steineger sent a letter requesting that friends and supporters lobby for him to be appointed to the vacated lieutenant governor’s position. In the letter, he stated, “I am seriously considering a race for governor in 2010.”
According to Steineger, “I align more with moderates on social issues like abortion, and align with conservatives on issues such as the size of the government.” He has focused his legislative efforts on issues such as redesigning local units of government, promoting fiscal conservatism, developing alternative energy sources, reducing the cost of health care, and maintaining competitive salaries for teachers,
POST A COMMENT
Oops! The following errors must be addressed: