CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
June 1, 2009 – 12:23 a.m.
GOP Eyes Possibilities in Oregon Governor’s Race
By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff
It has been nearly 30 years since a Republican won election as governor of Oregon, but the state’s economic crisis, combined with other factors, could make next year’s open-seat race a prime pickup opportunity.
Like the rest of the country, Oregon is feeling the pressure from a national economic downturn. But it also has one of the top unemployment rates in the nation. Oregon’s April jobless rate was 12 percent, the second-highest among all 50 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. Only Michigan’s unemployment rate was higher, largely due to the decline of the auto industry.
Republicans say they expect the Democratic-controlled state legislature to mismanage the state budget in the midst of the crisis, which could prompt voters to support the ideas put forth by GOP candidates.
“Right now it’s in Democrats’ hands and they’re faced with a huge challenge in how to responsibly manage the state budget through this crisis,” said state GOP executive director Andrew Over. “And the only response we’re hearing is ‘higher taxes,’ and I think that will present our party with a great opportunity to demonstrate the different outlooks of how to deal with the problem.”
Over suggested that raising taxes will further burden small businesses and increase unemployment. Making budget cuts and changing the budget’s management are two alternative ways to deal with the crisis, he added.
He believes that voters dissatisfied with Democratic efforts will support a Republican candidate for governor in 2010 who puts forth different ideas.
Democrats agree that the economy will play a major role in the upcoming election.
“In 2010, we’re obviously going to be pretty deeply in the middle of a recession. And the economic challenges that the state is facing across the board I think are going to affect politics,” said Trent Lutz, the state Democratic party executive director.
Comparison to 2002
Lutz said the current economic problems make the 2010 election more closely resemble the 2002 gubernatorial race instead of the more recent 2006 contest. In 2002, Democratic Gov. Theodore R. Kulongoski won his first term by a narrow 3 percentage point margin. In 2006, he won re-election by 8 percentage points.
Term limits prevent Kulongoski from seeking re-election next year.
Oregon voters haven’t elected a Republican governor since Vic Atiyeh’s tenure from 1979 to 1987.
The state has been trending Democratic in recent years. Today, Democrats control the state legislature, governor’s mansion, both U.S. Senate seats and four out of five U.S. House seats. Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden is strongly favored to win re-election next year.
Last fall, Republican Sen. Gordon H. Smith lost his bid for a third term to Democrat Jeff Merkley .
Republicans argue Smith’s loss was greatly influenced by the presidential race. Barack Obama received 57 percent of the vote over 40 percent for John McCain in the state last fall.
Republican consultant John Easton, who formerly served as Smith’s chief of staff, said the competitive Democratic presidential primary between Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton was responsible for driving up Democratic registration. Voters wanted
The gap between registered Democrats and Republicans hovered around 3 percent in the preceding four election cycles, according to Oregon’s secretary of State. But in 2008, Democrats grew their margin to an 11 percent registration advantage over Republicans.
“Republicans still have a hangover from the registration impact of 2008,” Easton said. Democrats comprise 43 percent of registered voters, Republicans comprise 32 percent and non-affiliated voters make up an additional 20 percent of voters, according to the most recent report available from Oregon’s secretary of state.
Over said he expects some voters to re-register as Republican and non-affiliated now that the presidential race has concluded.
In addition to the economic concerns Republicans believe will work in their favor in the 2010 race, Over said the governor’s race will attract significant resources and attention because it will be the only statewide race on the 2010 ballot, besides Wyden’s re-election campaign.
Both parties are working to recruit candidates for the seat. For Republicans, this includes the only one remaining in the state’s congressional delegation: 2nd District Rep. Greg Walden .
Walden spokesman Andrew Whelan wrote in an e-mail that the congressman “has not ruled a run for governor out” but for now remains focused on his House duties.
“I anticipate he will make a decision about the governor’s race soon after Labor Day,” Whelan wrote.
Over said there is plenty of time between now and the May 2010 primary for the field to take shape.
Republican Allen Alley, a businessman who ran unsuccessfully for state treasurer in 2006, is already campaigning for governor. Over said state Sen. Jason Atkinson is expected to enter the race following the state legislative session.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Peter A. DeFazio of the 4th District is being urged to run. He congressman is serving his 12th House term and has long been regarded as a candidate for higher office. He ran unsuccessfully in a 1995 Senate special election primary.
Former Gov. John Kitzhaber is considering a bid and remains well-known in the state.
Lutz said Steve Novick, a communications consultant who ran for Senate last year and lost in the Democratic primary, and former Oregon Secretary of State Bill Bradbury are preparing campaigns and several state legislators are discussed as potential candidates.
But Easton said strategists are primarily focused on whether the two members of Congress will enter the race. “Most political observers in Oregon know that the two biggest questions for 2010 are whether Peter DeFazio and Greg Walden get into the governor’s race,” Easton said.
The state continues to be competitive territory where statewide candidates must fight for support from unaffiliated voters, who make up about 20 percent of registered voters in Oregon. Republican George W. Bush lost the state in the 2000 presidential race by a half-percentage point and by just 4 points in 2004.
CQ Politics rates the race Leans Democrat.
Comments
The Republicans STILL don't get it. As an independent, I vote based upon my perceptions of how the person has or is expected to perform their job. It made no difference that Obama was running for President: I was voting on Oregon's Senator and I objected to Smith's support of the Iraq invasion, did not believe in his convenient "conversion," and several other things. Merkley was not my choice for Senator but he was not Gordon Smith.
This is all part of the continued Republican fantasyland we've heard before. They expect the Democrats to mismanage the budget? They *think* people will suddenly start registering as Republicans? Why? Is it because they still are wedded to their bnakrupt ideology and can't fathom why the nation has left them behind? For all the R's talk of tax increases, the democratic legislature is actually balancing their budget with a combination of modest tax increases with some very serious programmatic cuts. The Rs would apparently have us get through the crisis solely by laying off teachers and police and gutting programs for seniors and the disabled. The one thing they'd retain is the $10 corporate minimum tax that allows hundreds of profitable companies to pay almost nothing to support the communities they operate in. The voters have heard this before, and until the Republicans get a new playbook, they'll be in the wilderness in Oregon and elsewhere for a long time to come.
A link for Bill Bradbury is http://oregonspriorities.com
Does the state not hold elections for "other" constitutional posts -such as treasurer- in presidential years, such as 2008 and '04? As for the big race itself, the "metro"- and "surf"-oriented character of this state augurs well for retention by the incumbent party, especially if Kitzaber ends up being the nominee.
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