CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
June 10, 2009 – 6:01 p.m.
Familiar Faces, Much Bigger Spotlight in Virginia Governor’s Race
By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff
Virginia state Sen. Creigh Deeds’ big win in Tuesday’s Democratic primary for governor has him back in the arena with a familiar adversary: Republican Bob McDonnell, but this time the stakes are higher, the stage is larger and the political scrutiny more intense.
The Nov. 3 general election for governor is effectively a rematch of their excruciatingly close 2005 race for state attorney general. McDonnell won that face-off by 323 votes out of more than 1.9 million cast.
But the two contests are very different. Their 2005 down-ballot race had a low profile — and drew low voter interest to match — while this year’s race for governor will dominate Virginia election coverage and the collective attention of state residents. It will focus on kitchen-table issues that directly affect most voters, such as restoring economic vitality and improving the state’s beleaguered transportation network.
“It’s a very different position that they’re trying to fill, and I think their records hopefully will be scrutinized much more closely by the press and the public in terms of where they stand and how they can work on these important issues,” said Carl Tobias, a law professor at the University of Richmond.
The partisan political ramifications of McDonnell-Deeds II are much more significant than their first race against each other, too. The contest will take place on a national political stage, as there is only one other race for governor, in New Jersey, during this “off-election” year. And the result will be analyzed for what it says about the mindset of voters halfway between last November’s victory by Barack Obama — the first Democrat to carry Virginia for president since 1964 — and the 2010 midterm elections, in which Obama’s party will be defending its majorities in both chambers of Congress.
CQ Politics currently rates the Virginia general election for governor as Tossup, meaning that it could go either way.
Deeds is aiming to extend a Virginia Democratic winning streak, covering most of this decade, that reversed the party’s long-flagging fortunes. Obama last year capped a run in which Democrats won for governor in 2001 ( Mark Warner ) and 2005 (Tim Kaine) and for senator in 2006 ( Jim Webb , who upset Republican Sen. George Allen) and 2008 (Warner again, as he won a landslide victory for the seat left open by the retirement of Republican John W. Warner).
But the Republicans do have some history on their side. Energy and enthusiasm at the political grass-roots tends to be with the out-of-power party in irregularly scheduled elections such as this one — and the party controlling the White House has lost eight consecutive elections for governor of Virginia.
There are other reasons why the Virginia governor’s race will attract outsized national attention. Deeds, in accepting the Democratic nomination on Tuesday, linked McDonnell to former President George W. Bush , whose poor approval ratings are still brandished by Democratic candidates to try to motivate voters to support their party’s cause.
Kaine, barred from seeking a second consecutive term by a unique state constitutional requirement, has more than party pride on the line as he works with Deeds to build a winning campaign strategy. Kaine already is juggling his role as Obama’s handpicked chairman of the Democratic National Committee and will move into that job full-time when he leaves office in Richmond next January. A Deeds win would burnish Kaine’s reputation, but a loss would raise some questions about his ability as a Democratic mastermind.
GOP strategists, meanwhile, think a McDonnell win would boost the confidence of Republicans after their serious national setbacks in the 2006 and 2008 election cycles, especially as it would take place in a state located so close to Obama’s White House.
The contest also will be a referendum on eight consecutive years of Democratic governance. Deeds invoked the names of Warner and Kaine often during the primary campaign and in his acceptance speech Tuesday night. His Democratic allies will be doing the same.
“I really think one of the issues that will be important is, do you want to continue the policies of Mark Warner and Tim Kaine ?” freshman Democratic Rep. Gerald E. Connolly told CQ Politics Tuesday night. “And Creigh Deeds has to show that he’s the heir apparent, that he’s the guy to continue that. ... And that’s exactly the theme he struck.” Connolly scored one of the Democrats’ success stories in 2008 when he won the contest for the seat in northern Virginia’s 11th District left open by the retirement of Republican Thomas M. Davis III.
McDonnell, in a video statement posted Tuesday night, didn’t directly criticize the Warner and Kaine administrations, but said that Virginia is facing “tough challenges” such as rising unemployment and college costs. McDonnell said Virginians want “positive solutions and new ideas for our future.”
Both candidates will receive plenty of campaign cash, in part because the national significance of the race will attract donations from all over the country. Those donations can be big: Virginia is one of just a few states that doesn’t have contribution limits. McDonnell already has received donations totaling to seven figures from the Republican Governors Association and the Republican National Committee.
Deeds, who won the Democratic primary despite raising less money than either of his primary opponents, is expected to close the gap with assistance from the Kaine-run DNC and other party organizations.
Deeds predicted during the primary campaign that the fundraising advantage the Republicans had in the 2005 attorney general’s race — McDonnell raised $6 million and Deeds raised $3 million — wouldn’t be repeated in this year’s higher-profile race for governor.
“He outspent me 2-to-1,” Deeds said on WJLA-TV, the ABC affiliate in Washington, D.C., shortly before the primary. “The demographics were against me. It was a more Republican state in 2005 than it is now. I will not be outspent 2-to-1 when I am the Democratic nominee for governor.”
The Democratic Governors Association has been bankrolling a liberal group, Common Sense Virginia, that has aired ads critical of McDonnell’s opposition to Virginia accepting $125 million in federal stimulus funds to expand unemployment benefits. McDonnell, whose television ads promise he’ll be a “jobs” governor, has said accepting the stimulus money could lead to higher taxes on businesses.
The Republican National Committee on Wednesday released a research document that said Deeds “has a history of voting for higher taxes,” in particular pointing to votes for higher levies on gasoline and cigarettes.
Republicans are also raising questions about Deeds’ stance on gun owners’ rights.
Deeds, who hails from a rural county on the West Virginia border, was endorsed by the National Rifle Association in the 2005 state attorney general’s race and came under attack in the Democratic primary for his past opposition to a Virginia law limiting handgun purchases to one per month.
But the RNC says Deeds has shifted to the left on gun issues, pointing to his support for closing a “loophole” allowing people to buy firearms at gun shows without undergoing a criminal background check. Deeds says that he believes in an individual's right to bear arms under the Second Amendment and that his position on guns is similar to that of Democratic Sens. Warner and Webb.




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