The fate of global warming legislation in the Senate may hang on the votes of 19 Democrats who have varying reasons for worrying about its political implications:

Rust Belters

Democrats from Ohio and Michigan had the hardest time supporting the House climate bill, fearing that the cap on fossil fuel emissions could hurt their home state auto and manufacturing industries. Senators from those states have the same fears.

Sherrod Brown , Ohio • Carl Levin , Mich. • Debbie Stabenow , Mich.

Midwest and Farm Staters

As in the House, where members of the Agriculture Committee threatened to sink the bill, farm state lawmakers fear that a cap-and-trade measure will raise the price of fossil fuels and hurt small farms. They are also pushing for farms to profit by getting a greater share of credits for actions such as planting of trees that offset carbon emissions. A key senator to watch will by North Dakotan Byron L. Dorgan , who is up for re-election in 2010 and represents a farm state that relies heavily on coal. In the House, North Dakota Democrat Earl Pomeroy , an at-large member who faces the same constituent pressures as a senator, voted against the bill.

Evan Bayh , Ind. • Kent Conrad , N.D. • Byron L. Dorgan , N.D. • Claire McCaskill , Mo. • Jon Tester , Mont. • Ben Nelson , Neb.

Coal Staters

While some studies show that a cap-and-trade program could create as many as 750,000 new jobs in clean energy industries, polluting industries such as coal could be hit hard, and lawmakers from coal-mining states such as Pennsylvania and West Virginia could have the toughest time supporting the measure. In the House, a key coal-state Democrat – Nick J. Rahall II of West Virginia, who chairs the House Natural Resources Committee – voted against the bill, as did Pennsylvania Democrats from coal mining districts.

Bob Casey , Penn. • Arlen Specter , Pa. • John D. Rockefeller IV , W. Va. • Robert C. Byrd , W.Va.

Southeasterners

Southeasterners object to a renewable power standard in the House bill that would require up to 20 percent of the nation’s electricity come from renewable sources such as wind as solar by 2020. States in the southeast with limited wind and solar resources say that could unfairly penalize them. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas lobbied hard to lower the renewable requirement in Senate draft energy legislation to only 15 percent. The Senate energy bill is likely to be merged with a global warming bill, and any effort to restore a stronger renewable standard could lose hard-won support from southeasterners.

Blanche Lincoln , Ark. • Mark Pryor , Ark. • Jim Webb , Va. • Mark Warner , Va. • Kay Hagan , N.C.