CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
July 2, 2009 – 12:18 a.m.
GOP: 60 Votes Will Haunt Democrats at Ballot Box
By Jonathan Allen, CQ Staff
Republicans say Democrat Al Franken ’s victory in the long-contested Minnesota Senate race opens a new line of attack against Democrats for 2010.
“With their supermajority, the era of excuses and finger-pointing is now over,” National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn said Tuesday, referring to Franken’s addition giving the Democratic caucus 60 members, a number that, if unified, could stop a Republican filibuster.
“That’s why the American people will now have a particularly clear choice in next year’s election — to continue down this path of fiscal mismanagement, more big government, and one-party control in Washington or to restore a system of checks and balances that will hold government accountable to its citizens.”
The first example of the strategy to turn the Democrats’ hold on the White House and Congress against the party came in a memo attacking Sen. Blanche Lincoln , D-Ark., that Cornyn’s top aide, Rob Jesmer, sent Wednesday to reporters.
“Lincoln will effectively serve as the 60th vote on a number of controversial measures championed by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid , [D-Nev.], House Speaker Nancy Pelosi [D-Calif.], and the Obama administration, including government-run health care, card check, and cap-and-tax.”
Similar memos were circulated about Democratic Sens. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania and Michael Bennet of Colorado, all of whom face voters in 2010.
Lincoln campaign manager Steve Patterson promptly agreed that Lincoln is a critical swing vote, particularly as a member of the Finance Committee and the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, which are writing health care and climate change legislation, respectively.
“He’s actually doing her a big favor by pointing out that she’s a major player on all these issues. She’s in a pivotal position to get the best deal or no deal for her state and that is the reason why she’s there,” Patterson said. “We appreciate the NRSC pointing that out.”
Lincoln’s case offers a glimpse of a problem with the Republican argument: They have not produced top challengers to Democrats in conservative states where President Obama’s agenda might be unpopular.
The cast of Republican hopefuls lacks a marquee name that would strike fear in Lincoln’s heart. And the state is far more Democratic-leaning than many national political strategists realize. CQ Politics rates the race “Democrat Favored.”
There are two candidates seeking to challenge the appointed Bennet in Colorado. Specter, who was a Republican until earlier this year, faces a primary challenge from Rep. Joe Sestak , D-Pa., and a general election matchup with former Rep. Patrick J. Toomey, who nearly beat him in a 2004 Republican primary.
CQ Politics rates Colorado “Democrat Favored” and Pennsylvania “Leans Democrat.”
Missing Candidates
In several states where top-tier Republican challengers are either running against incumbent Democrats or seriously weighing bids, there’s little indication that Obama’s agenda is becoming an albatross.
That’s the case in Connecticut, where former Republican Rep. Rob Simmons is running against veteran Democratic Sen. Christopher J. Dodd ; in Illinois, where Republican Rep. Mark Steven Kirk is expected to make a decision soon about whether to run for the seat held by Democratic Sen. Roland W. Burris ; and in Delaware, where Michael N. Castle , the state’s lone House member and a former governor, is considering vying for a seat that Democratic Sen. Ted Kaufman is leaving open.
Even though CQ Politics rates Illinois and Connecticut “Tossup,” the ratings have more to do with the Democratic incumbents than Obama’s agenda. Obama topped 60 percent of the vote in both states.
Places where running against Obama’s agenda and one-party rule in Washington may emerge to help Republican candidates. It is early in the campaign cycle and new GOP recruits are likely to be announced in the coming weeks.
Republicans continue to court Rep. Dean Heller , R-Nev., to run against Reid, whose anemic poll numbers have GOP strategists licking their chops.
States where the GOP’s criticism of one-party rule may be most effective are those where Republicans are trying to hold onto seats. These include Louisiana, where David Vitter is seeking re-election, and Ohio, where former Republican Rep. Rob Portman hopes to succeed retiring GOP Sen. George V. Voinovich .
Democrats say it is the GOP that will pay a price if voters see Republicans rushing to absolve themselves from their role in governing.
“If they want to be known of the party that wipes their hands clean of any responsibility, that’s offensive governing but it’s also questionable politics,” said Eric Schultz, the spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Missing Lincoln
Lincoln has long been considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in 2010 because Arkansas voters are right-of-center.
Obama won less than 39 percent of Arkansans votes in the 2008 presidential election in losing to Republican presidential nominee John McCain , R-Ariz.
That extended a Republican presidential winning streak in Arkansas that, with the exception of two wins by favorite son Bill Clinton, extends back to Ronald Reagan’s narrow triumph over Jimmy Carter in 1980.
Still, Lincoln, who won re-election by more than 10 percentage points, has been buoyed by a thick but unremarkable field of would-be challengers.
“While it’s perfectly logical for the Republicans to target her, she’s not nearly as vulnerable as they seem to think,” said University of Arkansas political science professor Janine Parry.
Parry, who is director of [@url@the Arkansas Poll@http://www3.uark.edu/arkpoll/], says national political observers are mistaken in thinking that Arkansas is the Republican red state they see at the presidential level every four years and that national GOP officials are off the mark if they think Arkansans are uncomfortable with one-party rule.
Democrats control the state House by a 75-25 margin and the state Senate by a 27-8 spread.
“We’re accustomed to it,” Parry said. “The Democratic Party is still the name brand of Arkansas politics.”
Comments
"With their supermajority . . . that's why the American people will now have a particularly clear choice in next year's election" -- really. It is now confirmed -- Republicans still don't have any reasons for voters to elect them -- only that voters shouldn't elect more Democrats. Seems like an iffy strategy at best.
Problematic argument indeed! If the so-called Magic Sixty would be so helpful for the current campagin cycle, why in God's name did the R potentates vow to leave the MN seat empty as long as possible?
Republicans have sound reasoning and very good logic. Let's just hope that it won't be too late to undo the economic and social night mares created by the dems, before election day!
Maybe IF the Republicans has SOMETHING to offer other than re-cycled FAILED old ideas and an attitude of "NO", there MIGHT be a reason to "consider them" . . . but based on record and current racist greedy self serving hypocrisy soaked failures LEADING the "Party" - I think NOT.
Cornyn thinks people will believe that Republicans can "... restore a system of checks and balances that will hold government accountable to its citizens." ?? This is after the Bush Administration and its majority in the House and Senate let unregulated Corporate greed run freely in the streets and didn't even include the Iraq War in the budget??? Please!
I love the GOP twisted logic. Don't put out any new or meaningful ideas. Just hope your opponents fail with their super majority. The problem with that logic is that the voters will want viable alternative ideas to the dem's which the GOP do not have, or are yet to articulate. The voters, therefore, may choose to stick with the dems despite their shortcomings. Hello!!!!!
Sentry - Is this the same "sound reasoning and logic" that drove the country into the ground over the last eight years? Or that doesn't even believe that a sitting President is an American citizen? Gee, it must suck to be out of power and have no ideas
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