CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
– POLITICS
July 11, 2009 – 10:16 a.m.
It’s All About Recruiting In North Carolina 8
By Emily Stephenson, CQ Staff
No contender has emerged to challenge first-term Rep. Larry Kissell but Republicans say that if they can recruit a a strong candidate, they could retake that seat from the former schoolteacher.
GOP leaders say they’re focused on finding the right candidate to take on Kissell, who unseated five-term Republican Robin Hayes in November.
“ Larry Kissell won that seat in an anomaly year,” said Chris McClure, executive director of the North Carolina Republican Party. “It was just a tough year in North Carolina.”
CQ Politics rates the race “Leans Democrat.”
The district, which covers parts of Charlotte and Fayetteville, was competitive even during the 10 years that Hayes held the seat.
Kissell won with 55 percent of the vote in 2008, but two years earlier had lost to Hayes by by about 300 votes out of more than 120,000 votes cast.
“I think that this will be a highly targeted race in 2010,” said John Hood, president of the right-leaning John Locke Foundation. “The district is truly a swing, either party can win.”
Republicans say high voter turnout in 2008 because of the presidential race helped Kissell win in a race where more than 283,000 votes were cast — a considerable difference from 2006.
But Tom Jensen, communications director at Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling in Raleigh, said the so-called “Obama factor” is a myth because Kissell won by such a significant margin.
“I don’t think this is even a top 25 seat that Republicans could take back,” Jensen said, adding that the fundraising power Kissell gains as an incumbent will make him more secure. Kissell’s campaign had about $137,000 on hand as of May 1. The latest filing period ended Wednesday, but reports are not due until July 15.
Republicans say several big-name North Carolinians could run.
Hayes said he hasn’t decided if he’ll try to take back his old seat, but he’ll probably decide in the next six weeks. He said he was disappointed that Mike Minter, a former Carolina Panthers football player, recently decided not to run.
“If he had run, he would have been a great candidate,” Hayes said. “I’m going to do everything that I can to help find a winning candidate for the eighth district.”
Jensen said Hayes is probably the Republicans’ best bet because of his fundraising experience and personal wealth. “With limited financial resources, you’d love to have a candidate who could spend his own money,” Jensen said.
Democrats say Hayes tarnished his reputation with a 2005 vote for the Central American Free Trade Agreement, an unpopular decision in a district that has watched its once-powerful manufacturing and textile industries move overseas. That agreement passed the House 217-215; a Hayes vote of “no” would have killed the bill.
“Robin Hayes failed the people of the 8th district in North Carolina with his vote on CAFTA,” said Andrew Whalen, executive director of the North Carolina Democratic Party. “I don’t think the people have forgotten that he turned his back on them.”
Republicans say Pat McCrory, the seven-term Charlotte mayor who lost a close gubernatorial race to Democrat Bev Perdue in November, could run.
McClure said the well-known mayor with considerable fundraising ability could pose a threat to Kissell. McCrory did not return phone calls requesting an interview.
The John Locke Foundation’s Hood said many North Carolinians expect McCrory to challenge Perdue in 2012, and voters might not support a congressional candidate they suspect would move on after one term. And if McCrory ran against Kissell and lost, a second gubernatorial race would be difficult.
The names of former state Rep. Mia White and Union County Attorney General John Snyder also are circulating as potential candidates. Thomas Hill, a libertarian from Cabarrus County, has said he will run.
Even without knowing who he will end up facing, Kissell has been innoculating himself against predictable lines of attack. He voted against the stated positions of the White House about a quarter of the time, according to CQ’s vote study.
He voted against giving the Food and Drug Administration authority over the tobacco industry and the cap-and-trade climate bill (
“We never thought he was going to be progressive,” said James Protzman, a Chapel Hill resident who helped found liberal blog BlueNC. “Inside the district, they feel like he’s listening and all that. The more heat he gets from progressives and the left side of the party, I think, the stronger he is.”
McClure said Kissell’s vote for the $787 billion stimulus law (PL 111-5) will hurt him with conservatives. McClure pointed out that fellow Democrat Heath Shuler , who represents western North Carolina’s District 11, voted against the stimulus, as did seven other House Democrats.
“After just six months in Congress, Larry Kissell has taught us how to borrow, tax and spend with the best of ‘em,” said Andy Sere, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, chastising the former schoolteacher. “Unfortunately, he forgot the lesson plan on creating jobs for North Carolina’s middle class, and he’s certain to face a strong GOP challenger as a result.”
Kissell spokeswoman Leanne Powell declined to discuss the 2010 race beyond confirming that Kissell will seek re-election. But supporters said Kissell can talk up an amendment included in the stimulus package mandating that textile products for the Department of Homeland Security be [@url@produced in the United States@http://www.cq.com/document/display.do?dockey=/cqonline/prod/data/docs/html/news/111/news111-000003019881.html@allnews&metapub=CQ-NEWS@] with American materials.
Kissell also was involved in securing funding for new barracks and offices at Fort Bragg (
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