Though Oregon Democrats hold an advantage in statewide races, the potential for competitive elections persists. In 2008, Smith lost re-election by 3 percentage points to Democrat Jeff Merkley . Statewide candidates must fight for support from unaffiliated voters, who make up about 20 percent of registered voters in Oregon.

CQ Politics rates the governor’s contest Leans Democrat.

In DeFazio’s 4th District, Republicans have recruited Springfield Republican Mayor Sid Leiken to run in 2010. The district has historically been competitive territory, but analysts in the state say DeFazio is strongly favored to win if he decides to run for re-election.

“The 4th District is more or less owned by Peter DeFazio,” said Bill Lunch, chairman of the political science department at Oregon State University. “He is essentially just about unbeatable there.”

Leiken supporters argue that the Springfield mayor poses a formidable threat to DeFazio due to his base in the city he represents, his bipartisan ideology, and because national problems will be tied to the party in power in Washington. Leiken said he will position himself as a fresh face in the race and tout his success in local economic development.

Lunch said Republicans have been preparing Leiken as a candidate in the event DeFazio does not run in 2010 — and in the event DeFazio does not run in 2012.

A Republican candidate has the potential to win the 4th without DeFazio in the race. In 2008, President Obama received 54 percent of the vote in the 4th District. But in 2004, Democrat John Kerry carried the district by less than half a percentage point over Republican George W. Bush . And in 2000, Bush carried the territory that now comprises the 4th. DeFazio has easily won past re-election races in the district, though Republicans failed to field a candidate against him last year.

Leiken’s campaign has gotten off to a bumpy start. He formed a campaign committee in May, almost halfway through the three-month fundraising cycle, but his fundraising totals were still markedly low compared to other competitive races. He raised just $33,000, was left with $29,000 after expenditures and incurred $6,500 in debts or obligations.

In addition, Leiken is under investigation for campaign finance improprieties brought to light by a state Democratic party complaint filed against him last month. Among the issues in question is $2,000 of mayoral campaign committee funds which Leiken’s campaign has indicated was a payment to a polling firm controlled by Leiken’s mother. Democrats argue her business, P&G Marketing and Research, was not registered to do business in the state and is not legitimate.

On July 22, the office of Secretary of State Kate Brown, a Democrat, requested additional documentation from Leiken’s mother, Glenda Leiken, by Aug. 12 as part of their investigation.

If criminal action is uncovered, the next step would be to forward the issue to the Justice Department.

Leiken lists prominent elections law attorney John DiLorenzo as his lawyer for the matter.

“These allegations raise serious doubts about Sid Leiken’s candidacy,” said Andrew Stone, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “Voters in Oregon’s 4th district have rejected these kinds of political shenanigans.”

A Republican political consultant in Oregon said the fundraising quarter and investigation aren’t “nails in the coffin” for Leiken, but warned, “Sid’s got to pick up the pace and prove it” to remain viable.

CQ Politics rates the general election contest Democrat Favored.