CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
– POLITICS
Sept. 3, 2009 – 8:18 p.m.
Could Kennedy’s Successor Be A Republican?
By Emily Cadei, CQ Staff
Republicans are largely an afterthought in the ongoing discussions over who will succeed the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy in heavily Democratic Massachusetts.
Yet members of the state's GOP think that if they play their cards right, a Republican could have a legitimate shot at winning the special Senate election on Jan. 19.
While acknowledging that they are vastly outnumbered — registered Republicans made up just 12 percent of registered voters in 2008 — several GOP operatives envision a scenario in which the state’s political climate — combined with the prospect of a crowded Democratic primary — could provide an opening.
“This is our best opportunity to win the seat,” said Republican strategist Holly Robichaud.
The key, she said, is identifying the 36 percent of Massachusetts voters who voted for Republican presidential candidate John McCain in 2008 “and turn them out for this election.”
Independent voters unaffiliated with either party make up just over 50 percent of the electorate, and Republicans proved in past statewide elections that they can win by appealing to that voting bloc while turning out their base.
Turnout will be particularly critical in a special election, which tends to generate much lower voter participation in general. And this particular one will be taking place in frosty January.
Republicans, said Robichaud, can use the current health debate to rally voters, especially seniors, who are a reliable voting demographic, and also play off the growing dissatisfaction with Gov. Deval Patrick .
Eric Fehrnstrom, a Republican strategist and aide to former GOP Gov. Mitt Romney, said Republican chances also would improve if the party can pick one candidate to rally around. Right now, he said, “you have three legitimate Republican contenders who are actively considering the race” — former Lt. Gov. and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Kerry Healey, state Sen. Scott Brown and former U.S. Attorney Michael Sullivan.
A Healey aide confirmed she is looking at the race. Brown’s office and Sullivan would not comment on their political plans.
“My guess is those three are talking to each other either directly or through surrogates to find out which one of them is going to suit up and run,” said Fehrnstrom. “I think they realize that the party is best served by having a single candidate ... and let the crowded race take place on the Democratic side.”
He estimated three to five Democrats would run in the primary, which is slated for Dec. 8.
Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley officially launched her campaign Thursday.
Several Democratic congressman are also considering a run, including Reps. Edward J. Markey , Stephen F. Lynch , Michael E. Capuano and John F. Tierney , as are former Rep. and University of Massachusetts Lowell Chancellor Martin T. Meehan and Sen. Kennedy’s nephew, former Rep. [@rul@Joseph P. Kennedy II@http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/08/31/in_or_out_joe_kennedy_will_have_impact_on_potential_senate_field/@].
A number of the Democrats mulling the race are expected to sit it out if Kennedy is on the ballot.
Kennedy is expected to announce a decision within days.
Among the possible Republican candidates, Healey has the advantage of personal wealth — her husband, Sean M. Healey, is a wealthy financier, and she bankrolled much of her gubernatorial campaign with her own money.
The ability to muster resources quickly will be significant factor given the compressed time frame, said Fehrnstrom, who estimated it will cost $3 million to $5 million to run a competitive race.
He said it would be tough for either Brown or Sullivan “to raise that kind of money in such a short period of time” and predicted either would be outspent by the eventual Democratic nominee. But that need not be fatal, said Fehrnstrom, noting that Patrick was outspent by Healey in 2006 and still came out ahead by 20 percentage points.
Brown has a reputation as a conservative — for Massachusetts — state legislator, which could make it tougher for him to win over moderates. But his colleague, state Sen. Mike Knapick, nevertheless deemed him a “very attractive candidate for statewide office.” Robichaud described him as “eloquent” and “well-spoken.”
Sullivan has earned plaudits as a corruption fighter, bringing down former Massachusetts House Speaker Thomas Finneran in 2005 on perjury and obstruction of justice charges and State Sen. Dianne Wilkerson in 2008 for accepting bribes. Both were Democrats.
Sullivan also led the prosecution that helped convict shoe bomber Richard Reid.
He also has experience in elected office, having served as a representative in the Massachusetts House from 1991-95.
Robichaud said Sullivan would be “one of our best candidates if he would make up his mind to raise the money.”
Also generating buzz as a possible Republican Senate candidate is former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling. Schilling, who campaigned for Republican presidential candidates John McCain and George W. Bush , wrote on his blog Wednesday that he has “some interest in the possibility.”
However, the Associated Press reported that Schilling is a registered independent, which would prevent him from running as a Republican. State law, said Massachusetts secretary of State spokesman Brian McNiff, requires a candidate to be registered with a party for at least 90 days to be able to run in that primary.
“What he can do,” said McNiff, is “run on ‘stickers’ or write-in, or he could run as a non-party candidate in January.”
If Schilling were to launch a campaign, he’d have 100 percent name recognition and personal funds, Fehrnstrom noted, but would have to prove he should be taken seriously. “As much as Red Sox nation may admire ... his on-field feats,” he would face a challenge “to convince them that he is the right person to succeed Ted Kennedy,” he said.
Comments
Do NOT listen to this Holly Robichaud as any sort of expert on anything! She is a failed political consultant from MA who writes a nasty blog for the Murdoch paper in town and that's it!
Ya.. Um.. No. It's not going to happen. MA voters are still very strong in their support for the president and health insurance reform. Romney did the GOP a tremendous disservice in MA when he started insulting the state for which he was a sitting governor when he tried to garner some national right-wing cred. The GOP is dead in MA. It can't be resurrected for a few years yet. Ya see, MA voters are very savvy and we already know things like... for instance... we need a 60th Dem senator for health insurance reform... and... the sky won't fall if you allow loving gay couples to wed. BTW, gay marriage has 67% support in this state now that we've lived with it for a few years. I say again, the GOP is dead in MA for the foreseeable future.
The sillest exercise in political fantasy that I've read in some time. No GOP will be elected to the Senate from Mass for some years to come.
Schilling can't run as a Republican-he's an independent, and he would've had to change his registration about a month ago to run in the Republican primary. The MA SOS' page isn't clear, but it looks like he'd have ~2 months to assemble a campaign staff and submit the petitions to get on the ballot-and it's not clear that there's a way into the general election without a primary win. It's not a question of money-Republicans have had success winning races for governor because like any blue state, Massachusetts likes its governors more conservative than its senators. No Republican could please the primary electorate and the state as a whole in a Senate election, especially when the state GOP's got to save its money for the 11/2010 gubernatorial bid of ex-Harvard Pilgrim CEO Charles Baker. Lynch can't win-he's very pro-life, and his natural constituency-the working class, unions and pro-life Catholics-isn't enough to give him a primary win. I'd bet on Martha Coakley-she won in 2006 by 49 points and the relatively short timeframe for the primary means she doesn't have to waste time looking for donors or boosting her name recognition, unlike anyone in the House or state legislature.
I hope Schilling is foolish and egotistical enough to run. He'll quickly discover that the competition in professional baseball is nothing compared to politics, where ruining people is considered sport. He'll find his family and friends being investigated and attacked, his character being impugned, enemies from the past being quoted in the media, and so on. Political hit teams will be doing that to him every day before he sits down for breakfast. He won't know what hit him and would soon be longing for the clear rules and consistent plays of baseball.
Turning out 100% of the 36% during a special? Right...
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