North Carolina Senate

Incumbent: Richard M. Burr , R

Now: Leans Republican

From: Tossup

Burr remains one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents for the 2010 Senate election cycle. His low-key style after he won this seat in 2004 left him overshadowed for four years by his much better-known North Carolina colleague Elizabeth Dole. And even though Dole’s upset defeat by Democrat Kay Hagan in 2008 elevated Burr to senior senator in January, his profile hasn’t risen to match: Most polls continue to show about a third of North Carolina voters support Burr, a third oppose him — and a third don’t know enough about him to state an opinion.

But CQ Politics now rates Burr as having a slight (though tenuous) edge as the Democratic field remains unsettled deep into the pre-election year. For now, the Democrats’ top candidate is North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, who raised $178,000 in the two weeks after she filed for the Senate race. National Democrats, though, seem to still be waiting for their favored recruit, seven-term Rep. Bob Etheridge , to make a decision about whether he’ll jump into the race.

One thing Burr does have going for him is a seven-figure campaign treasury. He brought in about $1.2 million in the third quarter and reported about $3.5 million in cash on hand as of Sept. 30. — John McArdle

Alabama’s 2nd District (Southeast — part of Montgomery, Dothan)

Incumbent: Bobby Bright , D

Now: Tossup

Was: Leans Democratic

Bright’s open-seat 2008 win to take over the 2nd District, a longtime Republican stronghold, was no fluke. A conservative Democrat, Bright was serving as mayor of Montgomery, Alabama’s capital, when he was elected to the House, and he combined big-city familiarity with personal roots in the district’s strongly conservative-leaning rural areas.

But there is no doubt that Bright is one of the most vulnerable Democratic House incumbents for 2010. He won last time by less than 1 percentage point even as Republican presidential nominee John McCain received a 26-point edge over Democrat Barack Obama in the district. What has tipped the race into the Tossup category is the backing provided by national and state Republicans to their recruited challenger, Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby.

But Roby will need stronger fundraising numbers to prevent Bright from regaining an edge in the race. After bringing in more than $125,000 in the first six weeks of her campaign, Roby reported an underwhelming $91,000 in receipts during the third quarter. She ended September with $179,000 cash on hand to Bright’s $489,000. — John McArdle

Alabama’s 3rd District (East — part of Montgomery, Anniston, Auburn)

Incumbent: Mike D. Rogers , R

Now: Likely Republican

Was: Leans Republican

After a pair of easy re-election victories, Rogers in 2008 slipped to 53 percent of the vote and a 7-point margin over Democrat Josh Segall, an attorney who then was 29 years old and a first-time candidate. With Segall seeking a 2010 rematch, the potential for another competitive race is there.

But Rogers held off Segall in a strong year for the Democrats nationally by branding him as too liberal for the conservative-leaning east Alabama district. The Republican incumbent attacked his challenger for obtaining campaign contributions from liberal bastions such as “Hollywood and New York.”

Segall also may have difficulty matching the political chemistry from which he benefited in 2008, when his campaign spent more than $1 million, had the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and was boosted by the overwhelming support for Obama’s presidential bid among the black constituency that makes up about a third of the 3rd District’s population. — John McArdle

Florida’s 8th District (Central — most of Orlando)

Incumbent: Alan Grayson , D

New: Tossup

Was: Leans Democratic

Although the Democrats have gained significant ground in the once dependably Republican 8th District, Grayson faces a tough fight to hold the seat he narrowly wrested from four-term Republican Ric Keller in 2008. But that hasn’t deterred Grayson — a wealthy, Bronx-born lawyer with a big personality — from stepping out as a brash defender of the policy agenda pursued by Obama and the congressional Democratic majority.

Grayson in late September took to the House floor to declare that the Republican Party’s plan for health care was “don’t get sick,” and if you get sick, “die quickly.” Republican strategists say remarks like these are giving them more than enough ammunition to brand Grayson as an over-the-top liberal who is too far left for his swing district.

Yet the GOP’s confidence in their ability to oust Grayson has not been matched yet on the recruiting side, as a series of potentially strong challengers have taken a pass on the 2010 race. And Grayson, who poured close to $3 million of his own money into his 2008 race, enjoyed a spike in donations from liberal activists following his health care salvo — making him the Democrats’ analog to South Carolina Rep. Joe Wilson , the Republican who enjoyed a big infusion of conservative money after he shouted “You lie!” at Obama during the president’s September speech to a joint session of Congress. — John McArdle

Florida’s 12th District (West central — Polk and Hillsborough counties)

Incumbent: Adam H. Putnam , R (retiring to run for state agriculture commissioner)

New: Likely Republican

Was: Leans Republican

The 12th is one of a large number of typically Republican districts where the Democrats have made gains over the past couple of election cycles. McCain eked out a 1-point edge over Obama in the 2008 presidential race, four years after President George W. Bush racked up a 16-point margin. So with popular Republican incumbent Putnam stepping aside, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been touting Polk County Supervisor of Elections Lori Edwards as a strong contender for the open-seat race.

But former state Rep. Dennis Ross, the front-runner for the Republican nomination, has gotten off to a much stronger start. As of Sept. 30, Ross had more than a quarter-million dollars in campaign cash on hand. Edwards had less than $77,000, a weak third quarter in which she raised just under $39,000. — John McArdle

Florida’s 15th District (East central — Indian River County; parts of Brevard, Osceola and Polk counties)

Incumbent: Bill Posey , R

New: Safe Republican

Was: Likely Republican

CQ Politics initially rated the race in this Republican-leaning district as slightly competitive based on the outcome of the 2008 open-seat race, in which Posey — a 16-year veteran of the state legislature — received a tepid 53 percent of the vote and won by an 11-point margin. But so far the Democrats have not recruited the kind of top-tier candidate they’d likely need to make a serious run at ousting the freshman incumbent. — John McArdle

Georgia’s 12th District (East — most of Savannah and Augusta)

Incumbent: John Barrow , D

New: Likely Democratic

Was: Leans Democratic

This sprawling district, as drawn by the Republican-controlled state legislature in a mid-decade redistricting, can be a competitive battleground. In his first race under these lines in 2006, Barrow eked out a win by less than 1 percentage point over former Rep. Max Burns, whom he had unseated two years earlier by 4 points. But the combination of weak Republican recruiting in 2008 — and strong turnout for Obama’s presidential bid among the black constituency that makes up 44 percent of the 12th District’s population — enabled Barrow to race to a 66 percent landslide.

The Republicans, to make the 2010 race more competitive, must draft a strong challenger, and they have not done so yet. — John McArdle

Louisiana’s 4th District (Northwest and west — Shreveport, Bossier City)

Incumbent: John Fleming , R

New: Safe Republican

Was: Likely Republican

Democrats took their best shot at taking over this northwestern Louisiana seat in 2008 when 20-year Republican Rep. Jim McCrery retired, but they fell short with Fleming pulling out victory by four-tenths of a percentage point and a margin of 350 votes.

Despite the extreme closeness of that race, Democrats have shown no sign yet of trying to recruit a serious challenger to Fleming for the 2010 contest. With a less favorable environment and without Obama on the ballot this time to energize the black constituency that makes up more than a third of the district’s population, Democrats’ chances of flipping the seat will be much dimmer this cycle.

Louisiana’s 6th District (East central — Baton Rouge)

Incumbent: Bill Cassidy , R

New: Safe Republican

Was: Likely Republican

As in the 4th District, Democrats have shown little interest in recruiting a serious contender against freshman Rep. Cassidy in the 6th. The biggest threat, which hasn’t yet been ruled out, would be a rematch attempt by Democrat Don Cazayoux, who briefly held the seat after winning a March 2008 special election but couldn’t hold off Cassidy in the November general election. For now, Cassidy looks like a solid favorite.

North Carolina’s 11th District (West — Asheville)

Incumbent: Heath Shuler , D

New: Likely Democratic

Was: Leans Democratic

Shuler, a former star college football quarterback, was much better known for his sports career than his political prowess when he came to Congress after ousting longtime Republican incumbent Charles H. Taylor in the 2006 election. But Shuler quickly took root in the 11th District as a popular conservative Democrat. Although district voters stuck with Republican McCain for president by a 5-point margin in 2008, Shuler won a second term by beating Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower by 26 points in a race that national Republicans did not target.

Republicans believe the national environment for 2010 will be more favorable in the 11th and recently recruited Hendersonville Mayor Greg Newman to take on Shuler. But Newman does not yet present a serious threat to Shuler, who ended September with $1.1 million in his campaign treasury. — John McArdle

South Carolina’s 1st District (East — part of Charleston, Myrtle Beach)

Incumbent: Henry E. Brown Jr. , R

New: Likely Republican

Was: Leans Republican

After four easy House elections beginning with his first in 2000, Brown had a tough ride in 2008. Though he was able to easily deflect primary opposition from two Republican challengers, Brown struggled in the general election, holding off wealthy Democrat Linda Ketner by a margin of just 4 percentage points in a district where McCain cruised for president by 14 points.

While Brown could face another difficult campaign year in 2010, his obstacles this time appear reversed. Ketner, the heiress to the Food Lion grocery chain, has passed on a rematch and her party is looking for a strong replacement candidate. But Brown faces a primary challenge from a much bigger name this time: businessman Carroll Campbell III — nicknamed “Tumpy” — whose late father was a popular Republican governor from 1987 to 1995. National Democrats are more likely to take a closer look at this race if Campbell can knock out Brown in the primary. — John McArdle

South Carolina’s 2nd District (Central and south — part of Columbia and suburbs, Hilton Head Island)

Incumbent: Joe Wilson , R

New: Likely Republican

Was: Leans Republican

CQ Politics originally rated this race as Leans Republican, a reflection of the 2008 contest, in which Wilson won by less than 8 percentage points — by far his smallest margin in a House career that began with a 2001 special election victory — over Democrat Rob Miller, an Iraq war veteran who then was a political unknown. That competitive rating seemed justified in the aftermath of the furor Wilson caused after he shouted “You lie!” at Obama during the president’s September speech to a joint session of Congress on the health care debate.

But the criticism Wilson received for rudeness has been overmatched in the immediate outcome, as conservative activists have given the congressman a hero’s treatment and poured $2.7 million into his coffers for the third quarter, most of that in the short weeks following his outburst. That appears, for now at least, to put him on more solid footing for 2010, even though Miller, too, benefited big time from his own party’s activists, raising $1.7 million in the third quarter. — John McArdle

Virginia’s 2nd District (Southeast — Virginia Beach, parts of Norfolk and Hampton, Eastern Shore)

Incumbent: Glenn Nye , D

New: Leans Democratic

Was: Likely Democratic

Nye was a 34-year-old international development official and former Foreign Service officer and had never run for public office when he competed for the 2nd District seat in 2008. But the strong Democratic tide that year, nationally and in Virginia, enabled Nye to overcome the consistent if not overwhelming Republican proclivities of voters in this Tidewater district, and defeat two-term Republican incumbent Thelma Drake by a 5 percentage-point margin.

Nye did benefit from Obama’s strong voter turnout effort and his popularity among a black constituency that makes up about a fifth of the district’s population, but he actually outran Obama, who edged McCain in the 2nd District by 2 points. And Nye, as a House freshman, quickly obtained the seat on the House Armed Services Committee that has become a political prerequisite for the representative of the 2nd District, home to many active-duty and retired military service members. He concentrated on veterans’ affairs early in his term.

Republicans say, though, that the electoral atmosphere will be much different in 2010. Drake is not seeking a rematch, but she and other Republican officials are promoting auto dealer Scott Rigell, who is waging a well-funded campaign that includes a mix of personal money and contributions from individual donors. Ben Loyola, an engineering firm owner, loaned his campaign $500,000 through the end of the third quarter. Other Republicans in the race include Chuck Smith, a lawyer who has served in the Marines and the Navy, and former Navy SEALs Ed Maulbeck and Scott Taylor. — Greg Giroux

Virginia’s 5th District (South central — Danville, Charlottesville)

Incumbent: Tom Perriello , D

New: Tossup

Was: Leans Democratic

Perriello pulled off one of 2008’s biggest upsets, edging six-term Republican Rep. Virgil H. Goode Jr. by 727 votes in a district that narrowly favored McCain for president. Republican strategists ever since have had Perriello near the top of their target list for 2010.

Since beginning his freshman term, Perriello has taken some conservative-pleasing positions, such as criticizing spending “earmarks” and opposing any effort to restore a lapsed ban on firearms labeled as assault weapons. But Republicans are wasting no time jumping on him when he votes with most fellow Democrats on controversial issues, including his support in June for an energy policy overhaul, which his party calls necessary to control climate change but which Republicans portray as a massive tax increase.

The emergence of at least one strong Republican contender — state Sen. Robert Hurt — has tipped the CQ Politics rating on the race into the Tossup category. But Perriello raised nearly $1.9 million for his 2008 campaign and will be waging a well-funded campaign for a second term. He reported raising $725,000 in the first nine months of this year and banked $617,000 as October began. — Greg Giroux