CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Oct. 23, 2009 – 6:55 p.m.
CQ Politics Ratings Update: The Northeast
By CQ-Roll Call Staff
CQ Politics this year published its ratings on the upcoming congressional elections at a much earlier point in the election cycle than ever before. As we near the one-year point before Election Day in November 2010, we decided to take our ratings in for a tune-up, and there were several that needed adjusting.
Today’s final roundup features races in the Northeast, where the highlights are the shifts of two neighboring Pennsylvania districts — the 6th and 7th near Philadelphia — to Tossup from Leans Democratic.
These changes are the results of a candidate chain reaction. First, former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan, who had entered the 2010 Republican primary for governor, decided instead to run for the 7th District seat that Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak had left open to join the Democratic Senate primary. This would have pitted Meehan in a potentially tough primary against wealthy businessman [@url@Steve Welch@http://www.welchforpa.com/] — but Welch then decided to shift over to the similarly Democratic-leaning 6th District, elevating the GOP’s (still-tenuous) chances of holding the seat that battle-tested Republican Jim Gerlach had left open to run next year for governor.
This Northeast roundup completes a series that began with the South roundup Oct. 23, Saturday’s ratings update for the Midwest and Sunday’s feature on races in the West.
The race summaries for the Northeast were written by CQ-Roll Call politics reporters Shira Toeplitz and Emily Cadei, and were edited by chief elections analyst Bob Benenson.
Connecticut’s 2nd District (East — Norwich, New London, Storrs)
Incumbent: Joe Courtney , D
New: Safe Democratic
Was: Likely Democratic
Republicans so far have failed once again to find a strong candidate to take on Courtney. That is now making Courtney looks safe for his race in 2010 — just four years after he scored a razor-thin victory to unseat Republican Rob Simmons (who has entered Connecticut’s 2010 race for U.S. Senate).
It was Simmons who was running against the tide in the strongly Democratic-trending 2nd District. Voters there favored Democrat Barack Obama for president by a 19 percentage-point margin. And Sean Sullivan, the Republicans’ 2008 challenger to Courtney, performed worse than GOP presidential nominee John McCain in that district, earning a meager 32 percent of the vote.
So far, two Republicans are bidding for the 2010 nomination: Matthew Daly, a former board of finance member in the town of Hebron, and businesswoman Daria Novak. It appears that neither Republican has the stature or fundraising prowess to serious threaten Courtney. Daly raised $54,000 for his campaign through Sept. 30, while Novak only brought in $9,000. What’s more, even Republicans acknowledged that targeting this seat is not a priority for them in the state. — Shira Toeplitz
Connecticut’s 4th District (Southwest — Bridgeport, Stamford)
Incumbent: Jim Himes , D
New: Likely Democratic
Was: Leans Democratic
Republicans’ hope for a quick comeback in the suburban New York City district that Himes claimed with a narrow 2008 win over veteran GOP moderate Christopher Shays. But the GOP’s plans suffered a huge blow when state Sen. John McKinney — son of the late 4th District Rep. Stewart B. McKinney (1971-87) — declined to run against Himes.
The freshman Democrat has a penchant for raising money at a torrid pace and already banked more than $1 million for his re-election bid as of Sept. 30, precious funds in a district enveloped by the super-pricey New York media market. So without a top-notch candidate, Republicans will have an uphill battle in a district that favored Obama with 60 percent of the vote in 2008.
Republicans have no shortage of willing contenders, though none has picked up much traction yet. Already announced candidates for the GOP nomination are state Sen. Dan Debicella, former McCain aide Will Gregory, businessman Rob Merkle and former state Sen. Rob Russo.
Debicella is likely the best known and most formidable of the bunch. But without a big name like McKinney’s, it’s unlikely Republicans will take back the seat. — Shira Toeplitz
New York’s 3rd District (Long Island — Levittown, Hicksville, Long Beach)
Incumbent: Peter T. King , R
New: Safe Republican
Was: Likely Republican
The Democratic Party has built a daunting 26-3 advantage over the Republicans in New York’s U.S. House delegation, but nine-term incumbent King’s local popularity in the 3rd District has enabled him to survive with aplomb.
There was some prospect that he might leave the seat open in 2010 to run for statewide office, giving Democrats an opening. But with his decision to stay put and no serious Democrat in the race at this point, this rating reverts to Safe. — Emily Cadei
Pennsylvania’s 6th District (Southeast — parts of Berks and Chester counties, Philadelphia suburbs)
Incumbent: Jim Gerlach , R (retiring to run for governor)
New: Tossup
Was: Leans Democratic
Gerlach’s decision to leave open his seat in this Democratic-trending district — which he had to use all of his political talents to hold in a series of close races — initially prompted CQ Politics to rate the 2010 race as Leans Democratic.
But the Republicans’ chances to keep this seat were boosted when Welch switched over in September from his original plan to run in the neighboring 7th District, where he would have faced a tough GOP primary. The 6th District general election race is now rated a Tossup.
Campaign fundraising is vital in this district because it includes the expensive Philadelphia media market. Welch has already put almost a half-million dollars of his own funds into his bid for the seat, eclipsing the other Republicans in the race. State Rep. Curt Schroder brought in $108,600 during the year’s third fundraising quarter, while Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello only raised about $30,000.
The 6th District race remains one of the Democratic Party’s best takeover opportunities, however. Democrats also appear to have a candidate who is willing to self-fund at least part of his bid. Former newspaper writer Doug Pike, son of former New York Rep. Otis G. Pike (1961-79), has already put in $622,000 of the $1 million that Democrats say he is willing to spend on his own bid.
Pike, though, will not get by without a primary contest. Physician Manan Trivedi is mounting a spirited challenge for the Democratic nomination, and brought in $127,000 during his first few weeks in the race. — Shira Toeplitz
Pennsylvania’s 7th District (Suburban Philadelphia — most of Delaware County)
Incumbent: Joe Sestak , D (retiring to run for the Senate)
New: Tossup
Was: Leans Democratic
Republicans scored big when former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan dropped out of the 2010 governor’s race to run for this seat, which Sestak has left open after just two terms to run against party-switching incumbent Arlen Specter in the 2010 Democratic Senate primary.
What might help Meehan’s chances even more in this slightly Democratic-leaning district is that Democrats have a primary on their hands. Although state Rep. Bryan Lentz announced his candidacy soon after Sestak indicated his intentions to run for the Senate, state Rep. Greg Vitali has yet to officially turn down a bid. Former political consultant E. Teresa Touey is also running, although she is not considered to be a strong candidate.
The Democrats will note that the 7th, once comfortably Republican, has been trending sharply toward their party. Its voters gave 56 percent to Obama for president in 2008 and Sestak won by comfortable margins in 2006 and 2008.
But Sestak had the benefit of facing flawed Republicans in each of his races. Sestak first defeated veteran GOP incumbent Curt Weldon, who was facing serious ethics questions at the time, with 56 percent of the vote, and then won a second term by beating Craig Williams, a former U.S. attorney little known to voters, with 60 percent of the vote. Meehan appears a cut above as the likely GOP nominee for 2010. — Shira Toeplitz
Pennsylvania’s 15th District (East — Allentown, Bethlehem)
Incumbent: Charlie Dent , R
New: Leans Republican
Was: Likely Republican
Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan’s entrance into this race changed the game for Democrats, who previously had frustrating failures in an effort to recruit a strong challenger to Dent in a district that is at least a battleground if not slightly Democratic-leaning.
Callahan had shot down Democrats’ overtures to run for this seat for the past couple of cycles. That helped Dent, a centrist Republican now in his third term, avoid tough races, even though the 15th District voted for Democrats on the national ticket — by a small margin in 2004 but by a comfortable 13-point edge when Obama ran in 2008.
So far, Callahan has even surpassed expectations by raising $346,000 in the first quarter since he entered the race, which means he was well on his way to matching Dent’s $537,000 cash on hand at the end of September. With competitive battles for both Senate and governor on top of the ticket, Dent appears heading into the toughest race of his career so far. — Shira Toeplitz
Comments
RIGHT-CHURCH / WRONG-PEW Regarding your view of the PA-6 race, you altered the rating from lean-D to toss-up...primarily because of the donation of a wealthy businessman (of $300K) to his own campaign. But how well is Steve Welch known in the district, particularly compared with front-runner (per polling) Curt Schroder (who LIVES in the district, BTW)? Does this carpet-bagger have ANY base of support in the 6th, particularly when compared with a long-time representative from the heart of the district? Pivotal is the fact that (disregarding, for a moment, that one or two more people are potential competitors) Curt has developed a record of honesty admixed with forthright implementation of core GOP-principles. It is anticipated that party-leaders (primarily in Chester County, but also in Montgomery and Berks) will acknowledge/endorse the ability of this plain-spoken courageous leader to "spread national wings." This will enhance the ability of the primary electorate to follow-suit, yielding the optimal candidate to retain this "50-50 D-R" seat. Welch may "talk the talk"; Schroder has "walked the talk"!
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