Incumbent: Bill Foster , D

New: Leans Democratic

Was: Likely Democratic

The Republican Party suffered a number of painful losses over the past two election cycles, and Illinois’ 14th is near the top of the list of districts that the GOP would most like to wrest back. Foster’s win in a March 2008 special election made him the successor to veteran Republican Rep. J. Dennis Hastert — the former House Speaker who resigned from Congress after his party lost control of the House in the 2006 elections.

Foster, a businessman and scientist, won twice in 2008 over the same Republican, defeating dairy company owner Jim Oberweis by 6 percentage points in the competitive March race and by a whopping 16-point margin in a November general election rematch. Republican officials attributed the outcomes to Oberweis’ shortcomings as a candidate, and that proposition that will surely be tested when they field a new face in 2010.

One candidate who wants to be that new face has a very familiar last name: Hastert’s son, attorney Ethan Hastert, is seeking to challenge Foster. With solid but not overwhelming fundraising so far and his well-recognized lineage, Hastert appears to be a formidable challenger. But the chances for a highly competitive and possibly bruising contest for the Feb. 2 GOP primary soared in September when state Sen. Randy Hultgren got into the race.

The early line thus forecasts a competitive general election race, with Foster holding onto a slightly diminished edge than he held earlier this cycle. — Shira Toeplitz

Iowa’s 3rd District (Central and east central — Des Moines)

Incumbent: Leonard L. Boswell , D

New: Safe Democratic

Was: Likely Democratic

The Republicans would have a good shot at defeating seven-term Rep. Boswell if they fielded a strong candidate. They last did that in 2006, a generally terrible year for the GOP nationally, when state Sen. Jeff Lamberti held Boswell to 52 percent, his lowest re-election vote share ever.

But in 2008, against a little-known and underfunded Republican, Boswell won more convincingly. His 56 percent wasn’t exactly a landslide, but it wasn’t bad for a traditional swing district — which includes Democratic-leaning Des Moines along with more conservative rural areas — where the congressman outran presidential nominee Barack Obama by 2 points.

CQ Politics has moved Boswell up to “Safe,” for now, because Republican recruiting efforts for 2010 have not borne fruit. The only announced Republican candidate is Dave Funk, an aviation security consultant who raised just $16,000 through the end of September. Boswell, as of Sept. 30, had $343,000 cash on hand. — Greg Giroux

Iowa’s 4th District (North and central — Ames, Mason City)

Incumbent: Tom Latham , R

New: Safe Republican

Was: Likely Republican

Latham was last seriously challenged in 2002, after Iowa’s congressional district lines were significantly redrawn, and has won around 60 percent of the vote in his three re-election campaigns since. Obama carried this district for president and by more than a few votes, in part because it includes Iowa State University in Ames. But Latham has strong campaign skills, looks out for his constituents as a senior member of the Appropriations Committee, and has a solid enough Republican base in the district’s many small cities and rural areas.

Most of all, you can’t beat somebody with nobody, and no Democrat has yet announced a challenge to Latham for 2010. — Greg Giroux

Kansas’ 3rd District (Kansas City region — Overland Park, eastern Lawrence)

Incumbent: Dennis Moore , D

New: Likely Democratic

Was: Safe Democratic

Moore, who has successfully positioned himself as a Democratic moderate since his first winning House campaign in 1998, had held onto Kansas City area seat by solid winning margins, even though the 3rd District traditionally favors Republicans.

Republicans have repeatedly tried, with spotty success, to put up strong challengers against Moore. They thought they had one in 2008 with then-state Sen. Nick Jordan, but he picked a year in which even 3rd District voters strayed from their partisan roots and backed Obama for president by a narrow margin. Moore’s 56 percent vote share was his second highest in his six House elections.

GOP officials think they can do better in 2010, and the number of candidates who are in the race, or thinking about it, suggest that Moore — while still strongly favored — isn’t exactly safe. Former state Rep. Patricia Lightner and businessman John Rysavy are already running; top Republicans hope state Rep. Kevin Yoder will get into the race, but that’s far from certain. — Shira Toeplitz

Michigan’s 9th District (Suburban Detroit — eastern Oakland County)

Incumbent: Gary Peters , D

New: Likely Democratic

Was: Leans Democratic

Democrats ran strongly in the district in 2008, with Peters unseating Knollenberg by nearly 10 percentage points and Obama outrunning Republican opponent John McCain by 56 percent to 43 percent. The GOP is hoping to return the mainly affluent suburban district to its traditional Republican tilt in 2010, but have gotten a slow start: Peters has raised nearly 10 times the amount reported by Republican challenger Paul Welday, a former Knollenberg aide.

And the Democratic freshman’s cash on hand advantage is equally impressive. As of Sept. 30, he was sitting on $1.1 million, compared with $137,000 for Welday and $17,000 for Andrew Raczkowski, a former state representative and military veteran who is also considering running in the GOP primary after he was drubbed as the sacrificial challenger to entrenched Democratic Sen. Carl Levin in 2002. — Emily Cadei

Michigan’s 11th District (Southeast — Livonia, Westland, Novi)

Incumbent: Thaddeus McCotter , R

New: Likely Republican

Was: Leans Republican

McCotter, the current chairmen of the House Republican Policy Committee, was not a top-tier target of the Democrats in his 2006 and 2008 elections. But his victory margins over vastly underfunded opponents in those contests were underwhelming, grabbing the attentions of Democratic campaign strategists.

Democrats, however, have not been able to recruit a top-flight challenger for 2010, as state House Speaker Andy Dillon and state Sen. Glenn Anderson have ruled out runs. The only declared Democratic candidate is Natalie Mosher, a former art teacher and civic leader from Canton, who raised just $93,000 to McCotter’s $632,000 through the third quarter of 2009. — Emily Cadei

Minnesota’s 2nd District (Southern Twin Cities suburbs)

Incumbent: John Kline , R

New: Safe Republican

Was: Likely Republican

Kline, a strongly conservative Republican, won the seat in 2002 by defeating Democratic Rep. Bill Luther after redistricting had given the 2nd District a strong GOP lean. The fact that Kline has topped out at 57 percent in his four House wins has kept the 2nd on the fringes of the Democrats’ target list, but none of his re-election races have been close.

The incumbent’s position is strengthened by the fact that he has established himself as an up-and-coming Republican in Congress and recently took over as ranking member of the House Education and Labor Committee.

So even though the longtime Republican edge in the district’s presidential voting slipped in 2008 — McCain outran Obama by just 2 points — the Democrats have failed to come up with a threatening challenger at this point to take on Kline. — Emily Cadei

Missouri’s 9th District (Northeast — Columbia, St. Louis exurbs)

Incumbent: Blaine Leutkemeyer, R

New: Safe Republican

Was: Likely Republican

Luetkemeyer, a former state legislator, had to work hard to extend the Republicans’ long hold on the 9th District when the seat was open in 2008. He won a four-candidate Republican primary with 40 percent of the vote, then prevailed the general election by less than 3 percentage points, running a few points behind McCain at the time of the Republican ticket.

But the freshman representative should have a much easier time securing his second term than his first — and, at least at this point, is looking like a shoo-in. Missouri’s 9th should be friendlier turf for Luetkemeyer in the 2010 election: Voter turnout among the Democratic-leaning electorate in and around University of Missouri, located in Columbia, will not be as robust as it was in 2008. And most importantly, the Democrats don’t have a declared candidate.

Ohio’s 15th District (Western Columbus and suburbs)

Incumbent: Mary Jo Kilroy , D

New: Tossup

Was: Leans Democratic

Kilroy, a former county commissioner in Columbus, boosted the Democrats’ 2008 national campaign by winning the seat that veteran Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce had left open to retire.

But Kilroy won by a razor-thin margin over Republican state Sen. Steve Stivers — the race wasn’t decided until a full count of ballots was finished a month after the election — and in the process trailed well behind Obama, who ran well in and around Columbus.

Stivers is back for a rematch campaign that should be well-funded. He raised $280,000 through Sept. 30, making him one of the best-funded Republican challengers early in the 2010 campaign. Republicans have targeted Kilroy’s voting record, which is in close agreement with the positions of Democratic leaders and the Obama administration.

Both sides will be renewing the attacks they made in the 2008 race. Democratic officials vow to again remind voters of Stivers’ previous work as a lobbyist for the banking industry.

Ohio’s 18th District (East — Zanesville, Chillicothe)

Incumbent: Zack Space , D

New: Leans Democratic

Was: Likely Democratic

In his brief two-election House career in his conservative-leaning district, Space has been a beneficiary of both a pro-Democratic national environment and surprisingly weak Republican opposition. In 2006, he won the seat that was long held by Republican Bob Ney, who later served prison time for corruption. And in 2008, Republicans failed to secure a top-tier challenger to Space.

The political environment in Ohio should be less anti-Republican in 2010, and Space probably will face stronger opposition, prompting the rating shift into the competitive Leans Democratic category. Republican officials are high on state Sen. Bob Gibbs, who announced his candidacy in September. Most of his state Senate district lies outside the 18th, though, so he’ll need to boost his name recognition in what is Ohio’s largest district in land area.

Gibbs also will not have the nomination handed to him. Other Republicans in the primary include Fred Dailey, a former state agriculture director who took 40 percent of the vote as Space’s 2008 opponent; Jeanette Moll, a former local magistrate who lost to Dailey in the 2008 Republican primary; and Patrick Carlisle, a businessman.

Republicans have criticized Space’s vote for a “cap-and-trade” bill that most Democrats say is needed to limit greenhouse gases but which most Republicans say would impose onerous new taxes. — Greg Giroux

Wisconsin’s 3rd District (West — Eau Claire, La Crosse)

Incumbent: Ron Kind , D

New: Likely Democratic

Was: Safe Democratic

Kind has turned this politically competitive area of western Wisconsin into a personal stronghold, topping 60 percent of the vote in all but one of his re-election campaigns. Republicans’ hopes for a strong shot at this seat were deflated when Kind, who thought about running for governor in 2010, announced in September that he would instead seek an eighth term.

Kind explained, “My first responsibility must be to get affordable and accessible health care reform passed this year for all Wisconsin families.”

Still, the Republicans may present a somewhat more lively challenge than has been the norm in Wisconsin 3. The almost-certain nominee is state Sen. Dan Kapanke, who took in $117,000 in this year’s third quarter. — Greg Giroux