CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Oct. 28, 2009 – 12:01 a.m.
Ratings Changes: Tennessee Democrats Face GOP Tide
By John McArdle, CQ-Roll Call
The big gains House Democrats made in the past two election cycles largely resulted from “spreading the playing field,” jargon for the party’s efforts to compete for seats that in years past it essentially ceded to the Republicans. Now as Republicans try to rebound in the 2010 elections, they are trying their own version of this strategy by testing some entrenched Democratic incumbents — such as Tennessee’s Bart Gordon and John Tanner .
The emergence of active GOP challengers to these long-entrenched members has prompted CQ Politics to change its ratings from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic both in the 6th District, represented by Gordon for 13 terms, and the 8th, Tanner’s congressional base for 11 terms.
The Likely rating means the incumbents still are heavily favored to win re-election, but the Republicans at least have some chance of making one or both races competitive.
The fact that the Republicans have lined up anyone at all for these contests is an achievement in itself. Tanner was unopposed in 2008, while Gordon had no Republican Party challenger and won with 74 percent of the vote over an independent candidate.
Both have prospered over the years by projecting images as center-right Democrats even though their heavily conservative districts tend to favor Republican candidates for other major offices. In 2008, Republican presidential nominee John McCain trounced Democrat Barack Obama by 62 percent to 37 percent in Gordon’s mid-Tennessee district, which includes the city of Murfreesboro and some fast-growing Nashville suburbs, and carried the vote by 56 percent to 43 percent in Tanner’s west Tennessee district, which includes Jackson and suburbs of Memphis.
Republicans have long argued they could compete on this turf if they could drum up strong candidates. And they think they finally have solid contenders in Stephen Fincher, a farmer and gospel singer who has signed on to tackle Tanner in the 8th District, and Lou Ann Zelenik, chairwoman of the Rutherford County Republican Party, who is challenging Gordon in the 6th District.
Fincher came out of nowhere to report $303,000 in fundraising receipts as of Sept. 30, all from individuals. Since Fincher’s unexpected showing, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) — the House GOP’s campaign arm — has touted him as a candidate with strong grass-roots support in western Tennessee, largely because of his family singing group’s popularity. The NRCC recently added Fincher to its “Young Guns” program for promising candidate recruits and cited McCain’s strong district showing as a key indicator that Fincher is viable.
Compared to Fincher’s number, Tanner’s $62,000 in third-quarter receipts seems tepid. But fundraising is less urgent for the veteran incumbent, who has been piling up a big cash reserve through a series of easy re-election campaigns. Tanner was sitting on about $1.4 million in cash on hand at the end of September. He also has never been seriously challenged in a House general election: The 62 percent in his first race, back in 1988, remains his career low, and 2008 marked the third time in 11 tries that he ran unopposed.
Gordon, who first won a House seat in 1984, was once seen as vulnerable by Republican strategists because he was a protege of Texas Democrat Jim Wright, (1955-89), who served as House Speaker from 1987 to 1989 but resigned after House Republicans — led by conservative firebrand Newt Gingrich, R-Ga. (1979-99) — pilloried him over a questionable book deal. Gordon had one near-defeat experience, hanging on with 51 percent in 1994, a terrible year for the Democrats nationally and in Tennessee.
Gordon has since settled in comfortably and has not slipped below 62 percent since 1998. He was tapped as chairman of the House Science and Technology Committee in 2007, and he reported about $1.3 million in the bank as of Sept. 30.
But the 6th District has a pronounced conservative lean, and it is one of the few districts in the nation where McCain won bigger as the 2008 Republican presidential nominee (a 25 percentage-point margin) than President George W. Bush did in 2004 (a 20-point margin).
And Gordon, since the Democrats claimed a House majority in the 2006 elections, has been voting more of a party line than was typical in the past. A Congressional Quarterly study showed he voted with most House Democrats against most Republicans on mainly party-line votes 90 percent of the time in the 110th Congress (2007-08), a jump from 74 percent during the Republican-controlled 109th Congress (2005-06). He hit a 95 percent party unity score during the first half year of the current 111th Congress.
Zelenik and her Republican allies think Gordon is handing them issues to use against him. They have already pointed to his support of a House energy bill, aimed at containing global warming, that includes provisions to “cap and trade” industrial emissions that Republicans reject as economically burdensome, and his vote earlier this year to move health care legislation, also strongly opposed by the GOP, out of the Energy and Commerce Committee.
But Zelenik will have to raise big money before Gordon can be considered to be in any serious trouble. A relative newcomer to the campaign, Zelenik did not file a report to the Federal Election Commission for the third quarter.




Comments
Bring them on. Here is one Tennessean who is getting tired of those two sucking at the public teat. Neither of them bring anything to the average person. I am an independent who voted for Bart Gordon, but will be happy to switch.
Surely both districts have the potential to be competitive seats given their overall political leanings. Yet is far from clear that these two candidates will be strong enough to mount that kind of challenge. Lou Ann Zelenik has one previous race for office under her belt -- in 2008 she lost a Republican primary for a state legislative seat - even though she outspent her opponent by more than 4-1. Even her term as Rutherford County Republican Chair has been marked my controversies, with some influential party activists calling on her to step down. Zelenik has aligned herself with the far-right of the Republican party, identifying herself as a tea-party adherent, and publicly calling President Obama a "Nazi" and a "socialist". While the 6th district is conservative in nature, it doesn't necessary mean they will want to elect someone that incendiary - or that she won't continue to make controversial statements that could damage her campaign. It remains to be seen if she can do everything it will take to defeat an ensconced incumbent -- raise millions of dollars, put together an effective organization, and perform well as a candidate in the media and campaign appearances. Jumping from being an also-ran in her own party's primary at the state legislative level to being a credible congressional candidate seems like a pretty big leap. Fincher seems to be a potentially more promising candidate for the Republicans, but with many unknowns. His initial fundraising is a sign that he may be a serious challenger for Tanner, but it takes more than money to be a good candidate. Certainly his profile (farmer and gospel singer) seems a good match for the district. Since he is new to politics, it really isn't known how effective he will be as a candidate. With an inexperienced candidate, there is always the risk that he will be prone to gaffes, or that unknown negatives could emerge (hypothetically - has he hired illegals to work on his farm, any tax problems, any outrageous public statements, etc?). Tanner also has the advantage of running in a district that is, by Tennessee standards, fairly Democratic. With nearly a quarter of the vote coming from African-Americans, Obama's 3rd strongest showing in the state, and a strong continuing Democratic loyalty in many parts of the district, a blue-dog like Tanner won't be a pushover. That said, Fincher certainly has all the initial indications of offering Tanner a serious challenge, and it may be the overall national political environment that determines if Fincher can win as part of a Republican wave, or if Tanner can hold on in a better Democratic trend.
it is difficult to defeat incumbents who have not offended their constituencts by egregious misconduct or notable divergence from the constituents's beliefs. It would appear that these two incumbent Democrats, moderate conservatives appeal to common sense and decency of the voters in their districts. A Republican revitalization based on polarization, political gamesmanship and radicalism masquerading as conservatism is unlikely.
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