By Shira Toeplitz, CQ-Roll Call

Former New Hampshire Rep. Charles Bass’ now-likely bid to reclaim his old House seat has elevated the Republican Party’s hopes of capturing the open seat in New Hampshire’s 2nd District – even though voters there, who generally have been trending Democratic, rejected the GOP centrist’s bid for a seventh House term in 2006.

Bass’ prospective candidacy has prompted CQ Politics to change its rating, to Leans Democratic from Likely Democratic, on the 2nd District race to replace Democrat Paul W. Hodes , who is competing in the state’s 2010 open-seat race for the U.S. Senate after just two House terms. Hodes was the challenger who ousted Bass by a 7 percentage-point margin in 2006.

The new rating means the Democrats still have a bit of an edge in the race, because of the recent Democratic leanings of 2nd District voters – they favored Barack Obama for president by 13 points and Hodes for House re-election by 15 – and because the party appears to have a solid recruit for the 2010 race in attorney Ann McLane Kuster.

Kuster, who raised $343,000 since she got into the race in June through the end of September, got a boost on Wednesday from an endorsement by EMILY’s List, a powerful Democratic political action committee that backs Democratic women candidates who support abortion rights. The group signified that it believes Kuster is a promising candidate no matter which other Democrats get into the race. Katrina Swett, the unsuccessful 2002 Democratic challenger to Bass and wife of former 2nd District Rep. Dick Swett (1991-95), is reportedly still considering a bid as well.

But a bid by Bass would ensure a highly competitive general election contest – assuming he is able to secure the Republican nomination in the September primary.

Although Bass aides insist he is only exploring the 2nd District race, it’s unlikely he’d shy away from a campaign at this point. An “exploratory committee” usually is a prelude to a full-fledged candidacy.

But Jennifer Horn, a conservative radio talk show host who lost to Hodes as the 2008 Republican nominee, has announced she’s in the race and she’s not getting out – no matter what Bass eventually decides. A divisive GOP primary could be brutal in New Hampshire, where the primary comes just a few weeks before the general election.

Bass’ moderate profile, especially on social issues such as abortion rights, made him a popular fit for the 2nd District for years following his 1994 defeat of incumbent Dick Swett. Bass still was cruising to re-election as recently as 2002, when he defeated Katrina Swett by 16 points, and 2004, when he snuffed Hodes’ initial House bid by 20 points.

But the political tide in the 2nd turned sharply by 2006, largely because of the sharp drop in public approval of President George W. Bush and the national Republican Party. Like many centrist Republicans in the Northeast and across the country, Bass was unable to successfully distance himself from his Democratic challenger’s effort to closely tie him to Bush.

After his defeat, Bass spent some time heading the Republican Main Street Partnership, a coalition of GOP centrists.