CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Nov. 4, 2009 – 2:32 p.m.
Election 2009: What Happened, Why It Matters
By Ron Faucheux, CQ Guest Columnist
Last night was a good night for Republicans. Here’s why:
• The economy was the dominant issue – and Republicans won it.
Exit polling shows that 89 percent of New Jersey voters and 85 percent of Virginia voters were worried about the nation’s economic direction over the next year. Solid majorities, 56 percent in New Jersey and 53 percent in Virginia, said they were “very” worried.
Voters most worried about the economy voted for GOP candidates in heavy numbers: In Virginia, Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell won those “very” worried 77 percent to 23 percent. In New Jersey, voters “very” worried went with Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie 61 percent to 34 percent.
• Independents broke heavily for Republicans.
In an era of polarized partisanship, where independents go is increasingly important. In Virginia, McDonnell won independents by a 2-to-1 margin: 66 percent to 33 percent for the Democratic candidate, state Sen. Creigh Deeds. In New Jersey, Republican Christie also won independents by a 2-to-1 margin: 60 percent to 30 percent for incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine .
This was a big turnaround for Republicans from the presidential election. In 2008, Barack Obama beat John McCain among independents in both Virginia (49 percent to 48 percent) and in New Jersey (51 percent to 47 percent).
McDonnell won 96 percent of Republicans in Virginia while Deeds won 93 percent of Democrats. Christie won 91 percent of Republicans in New Jersey while Corzine won 86 percent of Democrats.
One of the wild cards in the New Jersey gubernatorial race was the presence of independent candidate Chris Daggett, who at times polled in significant double digits. He ultimately received a little under 6 percent. What is particularly interesting, however, is that 46 percent of his votes came from independents, 37 percent from Democrats, and 17 percent from Republicans.
As we have always said, independents get their votes in layers of varying partisan compositions; on Tuesday, more of the Republican layer of Daggett’s peak vote slipped away than did the Democratic layer, helping Christie defeat Corzine.
• Democrats were not able to fully replicate the 2008 Obama turnout surge.
Obama won the presidency, in large measure, because of the high voter base turnout he stimulated, especially among African Americans and voters under 30. Democrats tried hard to replicate that formula in both New Jersey and Virginia — bringing in Obama himself to help them do it.
Here are the results:
Turnout among young voters fell dramatically in both states. They comprised just 9 percent of the New Jersey electorate yesterday (compared with 17 percent in 2008) and 10 percent in Virginia (compared with 21 percent in 2008). That was a big problem for Corzine, who won voters in the 18-29 range by 21 points. It didn’t matter as much in Virginia, since McDonnell carried voters under 30 by 10 points.
Black turnout fell in Virginia but expanded in New Jersey. African Americans made up 16 percent of the Virginia electorate yesterday, compared with 20 percent in the 2008 presidential election. However, they made up 14 percent of the New Jersey electorate Tuesday, compared with 12 percent in the 2008 presidential election. The Democratic Election Day turnout effort aimed at African Americans worked much better in New Jersey than in Virginia.
Whites comprised 73 percent of New Jersey’s turnout Tuesday, the same as in 2008. Seventy-eight percent of Virginia’s turnout yesterday was white, compared with 70 percent in 2008.
Voters who call themselves “conservatives” increased their proportion of the turnout in both states Tuesday, compared with the 2008 presidential election: jumping 7 points in Virginia (from 33 percent to 40 percent) and 5 points in New Jersey (from 25 percent to 30 percent).
A note of caution — and a little good news for Democrats.
While Tuesday may not have been a direct referendum on President Obama, the results nonetheless reflected growing voter discontent that’s working against Democrats. That has implications for 2010 and beyond. Democrats would be foolish to ignore this reality.
But there is always cause for caution in election analysis, and it surely applies here as well. As we review what happened in Virginia and New Jersey, we cannot forget that state elections are heavily influenced by local issues and personalities that are not particularly relevant to national trends.
In Virginia, for example, McDonnell proved to be an exceptional candidate personally who ran a very strong campaign. Though a staunch conservative, he wisely positioned himself as more of a moderate, emphasizing economic issues. Deeds lacked McDonnell’s candidate skills and his campaign missed critical strategic opportunities.
In New Jersey, Corzine was beset with major economic and fiscal problems in a state that has had a history of being tough on its governors. Local Democratic scandals didn’t help much, either. In many ways, New Jersey Democrats have been living on borrowed time in Trenton, surviving a wide range of embarrassments and unpopular incumbents. Voters ultimately decided it was time for a change.
The strong role that economic discontent played in both races seemed to favor Republicans. However, if the economy improves during the next year and unemployment declines, that could help Obama and the Democrats regain their footing. Of course, if conditions don’t improve and Obama’s economic policies are seen as ineffective, then Democratic losses in 2010 could be substantial.
Some Good News
Democrats, of course, had some good news yesterday in upstate New York, where Democrat Bill Owens won a vacant U.S. House seat previously held by a Republican. A nasty split within Republican ranks roiled the last weeks of the campaign, leading to the exit of the party’s official nominee, Dede Scozzafava — who was well to the left of the Republican base — and the emergence of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman as a major contender. This district had voted for George W. Bush over John Kerry in 2004 by 4 points but switched to Obama over McCain in 2008 by 5 points.
While GOP conservatives in New York 23 had good cause to be offended by the liberal leanings of the nominee their party leaders selected, they must consider an important truth: Political parties that refuse to expand their reach and isolate themselves within silos of ideological purity often find that they lose touch with reality and unnecessarily forfeit electoral majorities.
Ron Faucheux, Ph.D., is president of Clarus Research Group, a nonpartisan polling firm based in Washington. He also teaches at the Public Policy Institute at Georgetown University.
Comments
Great to see a professor from my school posting this article. My complaint about this and much of the reaction that came out yesterday is that it buys into the frame that the losses in NJ and VA put Democrats on notice. The admission that both states fielded weak Democratic candidates comes way later. If these had been strong candidates running effective campaigns, then their losses would definitely say something about the Democrats. Given that that's not the case, I do not see how it is honest to start any article with what amounts to the talking points for one side. A better way to start would have been to ask the question what the election actually meant-- trouble for the Democrats, or simply bad candidates--and then tackle each case.
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