CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Nov. 5, 2009 – 12:01 a.m.
Kentucky Candidates Divvy Up Poll Data
By John McArdle, CQ-Roll Call
Polling numbers released this week have Senate candidates in Kentucky claiming the electoral high ground going into the primary in six months.
On Tuesday, the automated polling firm Survey USA released a poll that was commissioned by a Kentucky television station. It showed Lt. Gov Daniel Mongiardo with an 11-point lead over Attorney General Jack Conway in the Democratic primary. Mongiardo leads 39 percent to 28 percent with 16 percent undecided.
The survey of 602 registered Democrats was conducted Oct. 30 through Nov. 2 and had a 4 point margin of error.
The poll also showed Mongiardo leading among men and woman, young and old as well as white voters. Conway held a slight lead among black voters. Mongiardo also lead Conway among registered Democrats in eastern, western and north-central parts of the state while Conway held a 20-point lead in greater Louisville.
Following the poll’s release, Mongiardo’s camp issued a statement touting the results.
“I believe my determination to travel to every corner of our Commonwealth and meet with voters to talk about the issues they care most about is reflected in these numbers,” Mongiardo said.
The Conway’s campaign responded by releasing it’s own internal poll which showed a much closer contest.
According to the internal poll, Mongiardo held a 3-point lead over Conway, which put the contest at a statistical dead heat. It also found that while Mongiardo was better known than Conway, the attorney general had a stronger job approval rating than the lieutenant governor.
The poll, conducted by the Democratic Benenson Strategy Group Oct. 4-7, surveyed 800 likely Democratic voters and had a 3.5-point margin of error.
The Conway release also claimed that he is the Democrat best-positioned to win the general election and that statement appeared to be backed up by the Survey USA poll.
When Survey USA tested a bipartisan sample of registered voters it found that Conway performed better than Mongiardo in hypothetical general election matchups against Republicans Rand Paul, the son of Rep. Ron Paul , R-Texas, and Trey Grayson, Kentucky’s secretary of state.
When Survey USA tested just likely Republican voters it found that Paul beat Grayson 35 percent to 32 percent in the GOP primary. That poll had a 5-point margin of error.
Paul’s campaign manager David Adams released a statement saying he was pleased but not surprised.
“No one close to the Rand Paul campaign can really be surprised,” he said. “Rand’s credibility on the issues is very solid and his campaign will only get stronger as he becomes better known.”
CQ Politics rates the general election race a Tossup.
To see how all the 2010 Senate races are shaping up, check out the CQ Politics election map.




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