CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Nov. 10, 2009 – 11:07 a.m.
‘Elephant Gun To A Mouse Fight’ In Connecticut
By Shira Toeplitz, CQ-Roll Call
Connecticut Republicans are facing their first contentious battle for a Senate nomination in more than 15 years, but it’s not clear whether spending big bucks now — as some candidates are doing — will help in the long run.
Five Republicans have lined up to run for the chance to challenge Democrat Christopher J. Dodd , one of the most vulnerable senators up in 2010.
Which of those five goes on to face Dodd will be strongly influenced by a party convention in May, when about 1,600 GOP delegates choose a nominee whose name will get top billing on the primary ballot in August.
Former Rep. Rob Simmons was viewed as the early establishment frontrunner, but since then at least two other candidates — one with a government background, one from the world of professional wrestling — have demonstrated that they are willing to use their own money to separate themselves from the pack.
Former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon has already given her campaign $3.5 million and has told Republican officials that she is willing to spend up to $50 million in her bid against Dodd. She started her campaign by spending millions on television ads in Connecticut and in the New York City media market.
“I launched this campaign with a significant media buy because no one in the state really knows who I am, and I think that’s really important,” McMahon said in a phone interview.
But as a first-time candidate, McMahon also has a challenge courting the 1,600 delegates and superdelegates headed to the May convention. Like the other candidates in the race, McMahon is spending significant time talking to local party officials who will either be convention delegates or pick the delegates next year.
That means retail salesmanship at 169 Republican town committees.
“It is a challenge, but we’re a small enough state and these committees are small enough and they’re cohesive enough that they do it by meeting with town committees in their regular meetings,” state GOP Chairman Chris Healy,
Connecticut Republicans have not had a competitive primary for a statewide office since 1994, when then-state Sen. Jerry Labriola defeated Joe Bentivegna at the convention to win the Senate nomination and then defeated Bentivegna again a few months later in the primary.
Competition to be a delegate to the convention has been scarce in more recent years, but “I can guarantee you that this will be one state convention that will be well-attended,” Healy said. “And that will be exciting.”
Connecticut’s Process
A candidate must secure 50 percent plus one of the delegates’ support to win the nomination and receive top billing on the August ballot. Any candidate who passes a predetermined threshold, usually 15 percent of the vote, also will be listed on the ballot.
Candidates who do not reach the threshold can petition to get on the ballot by collecting signatures — an arduous and expensive process.
“Since I announced in mid-September, I’ve done over 100 events,” McMahon said. “I’m having individual meetings with [Republican town committee] chairmen and further meetings with the town committee.”
Even if she didn’t have enough support at the convention, McMahon would have the funds to support a petition drive to get on the ballot — something she declined to talk about.
In local political circles, though, McMahon’s money is a big topic.
“There’s no doubt that she’s brought an elephant gun to a mouse fight,” said a veteran Republican activist who backs one of McMahon’s rivals. “Is it a waste? No. Is it overkill? Yes.”
McMahon’s millions aren’t being wasted, that activist said, because McMahon could clear the field if she has a strong showing at the convention — “If she were to win the convention, the race for the nomination would be over at this point.”
Simmons, a former state legislator and three-term Member of Congress, arguably starts out with an advantage in the delegate contest because he knows many of the activists. In a September interview with Roll Call, Simmons said he would not force a primary if he failed to win the nomination at the convention.
“When a minority party engages in a primary, it can be very divisive and undercut our efforts in the general election,” said Simmons, whose campaign confirmed his sentiments have not changed.
In Congress, Simmons represented much of eastern Connecticut, and his challenge now is to court voters in the western part of the state. “He is working his tail off aggressively reaching out to delegates, likely delegates and people who will be influencing the delegate selection process,” Simmons campaign manager Jim Barnett said.
Former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley is the other candidate besides McMahon who has [@url@alreadyhttp://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2009/10/connecticut.html@] hit the TV airwaves with ads, pumping $539,000 of his own funds into his bid so far.
“Name awareness is important,” Foley said. “It’s certainly going to be important next summer, assuming there’s going to be a primary. It doesn’t hurt to build that base now.”
He said he’ll run in the primary as long as he meets the delegate threshold to get on the ballot.
“I think with the delegates, you’re trying to have them get to know you, what your positions are on the issues,” Foley said. “They’re more process-focused than the typical voter. They want to know how you’re going to win, why you’re the best candidate.”
State Sen. Sam Caligiuri, another of the contenders for the right to challenge Dodd, said he hasn’t decided what he will do if he loses the nomination and still qualifies for the ballot.
“It’s going to depend on a lot of factors: Who else is in the race? How far beyond the 15 percent that I have? Will I have the financial resources?” Caligiuri said.
A campaign spokesman for businessman Peter Schiff, who is also running, did not return a request for an interview.
CQ Politics currently rates the Connecticut Senate race a Tossup.
To follow all the 2010 Senate races, check out the CQ Politics election map.
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