Florida Senate Race

CQ Politics Race Rating: Likely Republican

Incumbent — George LeMieux (R) (Appointed by Gov. Charlie Crist, R, to replace Mel Martinez, R, who resigned); Running for re-election

Martinez initially announced in December 2008 that he would retire rather than seek a second term in 2010. This prompted Republican officials to go all out to persuade Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, who has enjoyed strong public approval ratings, to run for the open Senate seat rather than pursue a second term as governor.

Crist rewarded them by announcing his Senate bid in May. But it soon became clear that Crist, though a solid front-runner for the Republican nomination and the overall early favorite to win the seat, would have a fight on his hands for the GOP primary. Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, a rising star among Florida’s large and politically potent Cuban-American constituency, entered the race as a more conservative alternative to Crist, who is viewed by some on the right as too much of a centrist.

Crist also soon found himself in an awkward position when Martinez made a surprise announcement Aug. 7 that he would instead resign his Senate seat as soon as Crist, who has appointment power to fill Senate vacancies, could choose an interim successor. As a contender for the seat himself in 2010, Crist needed a “placeholder” appointee who would have no interest in running for a full term.

On Aug. 28, he chose George LeMieux, a lawyer who is his former chief of staff, to serve until the end of 2010 as the replacement for Martinez, who officially resigned on Sept. 9. LeMieux, at the time of his appointment, was chairman of a well-known law firm with offices in cities across Florida.

Democrats wasted no time blasting Crist’s pick of LeMieux as smacking of cronyism.

Crist’s most immediate problem, though, is that he never has been a big favorite with the Florida GOP’s conservative activist wing. He enraged many on the right in February when he introduced President Obama at a rally to promote the economic stimulus legislation that was opposed by almost all congressional Republicans. And the party establishment’s immediate endorsement of Crist and effort to clear the primary field for him spurred a backlash that has helped fuel Rubio’s primary upset bid.

The potential for the Republican Senate primary to become a full-scale intraparty brawl was underscored on Nov. 9, when the Club for Growth, an aggressively conservative national political group, endorsed Rubio. The Club for Growth’s political action committee over the past few years has spent millions of dollars in several states on hard-hitting ad campaigns backing conservative candidates over more moderate Republicans, which the group labels as “RINOs” for Republicans in Name Only.

There is a third prominent candidate in the GOP contest: former Sen. Robert C. Smith, who moved to Florida from New Hampshire after he lost the 2002 Republican primary for the Senate seat he had held for two terms. At this point, Smith is not seen as a major factor in the race.

The Democrats say the open seat will be a top-tier target for the 2010 campaign. But while the party has prospective candidates who have political experience, they are lesser known than Crist. Rep. Kendrick B. Meek leads the current Democratic lineup, which also includes former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre. Meek dodged one potential problem in October when House colleague Corrine Brown, a fellow member of the Congressional Black Caucus, ended consideration of a Senate bid and announced she would run for re-election instead.

Race Information

• Incumbent: George LeMieux, R
• First Appointed: 2009; Appointed by Gov. Charlie Crist, R, to replace Mel Martinez, R, who resigned
• Incumbent Status: Running for election
• CQ Politics Race Rating: Likely Republican

State Information

• U.S. Senate Delegation: 1 Democrat, 1 Republican
• U.S. House Delegation: 10 Democrats, 15 Republicans

Florida's Other Senator

Sen. Bill Nelson-D

First Elected: 2000 (2nd term)

Last Elected: 2006 (60.3%)

State Offices

Governor: Charlie Crist, R

First Elected: 2006 (1st term)

State House Control: Republican

State Senate Control: Republican